Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7–15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1–5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder’s engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.     

Surface complexation model for strontium sorption to amorphous silica and goethite

Strontium sorption to amorphous silica and goethite was measured as a function of pH and dissolved strontium and carbonate concentrations at 25°C. Strontium sorption gradually increases from 0 to 100% from pH 6 to 10 for both phases and requires multiple outer-sphere surface complexes to fit the data. All data are modeled using the triple layer model and the site-occupancy standard state; unless stated otherwise all strontium complexes are mononuclear. Strontium sorption to amorphous silica in the presence and absence of dissolved carbonate can be fit with tetradentate Sr²⁺ and SrOH⁺ complexes on the β-plane and a monodentate Sr²⁺complex on the diffuse plane to account for strontium sorption at low ionic strength. Strontium sorption to goethite in the absence of dissolved carbonate can be fit with monodentate and tetradentate SrOH⁺ complexes and a tetradentate binuclear Sr²⁺ species on the β-plane. The binuclear complex is needed to account for enhanced sorption at hgh strontium surface loadings. In the presence of dissolved carbonate additional monodentate Sr²⁺ and SrOH⁺ carbonate surface complexes on the β-plane are needed to fit strontium sorption to goethite. Modeling strontium sorption as outer-sphere complexes is consistent with quantitative analysis of extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) on selected sorption samples that show a single first shell of oxygen atoms around strontium indicating hydrated surface complexes at the amorphous silica and goethite surfaces.     

Precise temperature monitoring in boreholes: evidence for oscillatory convection? Part II: theory and interpretation

In the previous part of this work (Cermak, Safanda and Bodri, this volume p.MMM) we have described experimental data and quantified the heterogeneity features of the microtemperature time series. The spectral analysis and the local growth of the second moment technique revealed scaling structure of all observed time series generally similar and suggested the presence of two temperature forming processes. The longer-scale part can be attributed to the heat conduction in compositional and structural heterogeneous solid rocks, further affected by various local conditions. Short-scale temperature oscillations are produced by the intra-hole fluid convection due to inherent instability of water column filling the hole. Here we present how the observational evidence is supported by the results of the computer simulations. The exact modes of intra-hole convection may be different, ranging from quasi-periodic (“quiescent”) state to close of turbulence. As demonstrated by numerical modeling and referred on laboratory experiments, at higher Rayleigh numbers the periodic character of oscillation characteristic for “quiescent” regime is superseded by stochastic features. This so called “oscillatory” convection occurs due to instability within the horizontal boundary layers between the individual convectional cells. In spite of the fact that the basic convective cell motion is maintained and convection is characterized by slow motion, the oscillatory intra-hole flow and corresponding temperature patterns exhibit typical features of turbulence. The idea of boundary layer instability as a source of stochastic temperature fluctuations could explain many distinct features of borehole temperatures that previously cannot be interpreted.     

Hydrogeochemistry of Fe and Mn in small boreal streams: The role of seasonality, landscape type and scale

Stream water from a stream network of 15 small boreal catchments (0.03-67 km²) in northern Sweden was analyzed for unfiltered (total) and filtered (<0.4 μm) concentrations of iron (Fe_tot and Fe_<0.4) and manganese (Mn_tot and Mn_<0.4). The purpose was to investigate the temporal and spatial dynamics of Fe, Mn and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as influenced by snow melt driven spring floods and landscape properties, in particular the proportion of wetland area. During spring flood, concentrations of Fe_tot, Fe_<0.4, Mn_tot, Mn_<0.4 and DOC increased in streams with forested catchments (<2% wetland area). In catchments with high coverage of wetlands (>30% wetland area) the opposite behavior was observed. The hydrogeochemistry of Fe was highly dependent on wetlands as shown by the strong positive correlation of the Fe_tot/Al_tot ratio with wetland coverage (r² = 0.89, p < 0.001). Furthermore, PCA analysis showed that at base flow Fe_tot and Fe_<0.4 were positively associated with wetlands and DOC, whereas they were not associated during peak flow at spring flood. The temporal variation of Fe was likely related to varying hydrological pathways. At peak discharge Fe_tot was associated with variables like silt coverage, which highlights the importance of particulates during high discharge events. For Mn there was no significant correlation with wetlands, instead, PCA analysis showed that during spring flood Mn was apparently more dependent on the supply of minerogenic particulates from silt deposits on the stream banks of some of the streams. The influence of minerogenic particulates on the concentration of, in particular, Mn was greatest in the larger, lower gradient streams, characterized by silt deposits in the near-stream zone. In the small forested streams underlain by till, DOC was of greater importance for the observed concentrations, as indicated by the positive correlation of both Fe_tot and Fe_<0.4 with DOC (r² = 0.77 and r² = 0.76, p < 0.001) at the smallest headwater forest site. In conclusion, wetland area and DOC were important for Fe concentrations in this boreal stream network, whereas silt deposits strongly influenced Mn concentrations. This study highlights the importance of studying stream water chemistry from a landscape perspective in order to address future environmental issues concerning mobility of Fe, Mn and associated trace metals.     

Timing and pace of ice-sheet withdrawal across the marine–terrestrial transition west of Ireland during the last glaciation

Understanding the pace and drivers of marine-based ice-sheet retreat relies upon the integration of numerical ice-sheet models with observations from contemporary polar ice sheets and well-constrained palaeo-glaciological reconstructions. This paper provides a reconstruction of the retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) from the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland during and following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It uses marine-geophysical data and sediment cores dated by radiocarbon, combined with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and optically stimulated luminescence dating of onshore ice-marginal landforms, to reconstruct the timing and rate of ice-sheet retreat from the continental shelf and across the adjoining coastline of Ireland, thus including the switch from a marine- to a terrestrially-based ice-sheet margin. Seafloor bathymetric data in the form of moraines and grounding-zone wedges on the continental shelf record an extensive ice sheet west of Ireland during the LGM which advanced to the outer shelf. This interpretation is supported by the presence of dated subglacial tills and overridden glacimarine sediments from across the Porcupine Bank, a westwards extension of the Irish continental shelf. The ice sheet was grounded on the outer shelf at ~26.8 ka cal bp with initial retreat underway by 25.9 ka cal bp. Retreat was not a continuous process but was punctuated by marginal oscillations until ~24.3 ka cal bp. The ice sheet thereafter retreated to the mid-shelf where it formed a large grounding-zone complex at ~23.7 ka cal bp. This retreat occurred in a glacimarine environment. The Aran Islands on the inner continental shelf were ice-free by ~19.5 ka bp and the ice sheet had become largely terrestrially based by 17.3 ka bp. This suggests that the Aran Islands acted to stabilize and slow overall ice-sheet retreat once the BIIS margin had reached the inner shelf. Our results constrain the timing of initial retreat of the BIIS from the outer shelf west of Ireland to the period of minimum global eustatic sea level. Initial retreat was driven, at least in part, by glacio-isostatically induced, high relative sea level. Net rates of ice-sheet retreat across the shelf were slow (62–19 m a⁻¹) and reduced (8 m a⁻¹) as the ice sheet vacated the inner shelf and moved onshore. A picture therefore emerges of an extensive BIIS on the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland, in which early, oscillatory retreat was followed by slow episodic retreat which decelerated further as the ice margin became terrestrially based. More broadly, this demonstrates the importance of localized controls, in particular bed topography, on modulating the retreat of marine-based sectors of ice sheets.     

Leveraging farmers’ strategies for coping with stress: Seed aid in Ethiopia

Interventions to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to crises rarely build on existing coping strategies. Emergency seed aid offers a unique opportunity to examine links between different types of interventions and local coping mechanisms, as such relief has been abundant and long-term. This study focuses on farmers’ use and assessment of crisis assistance within Ethiopia, where seed aid delivery dates back at least 34 years. Farmers’ abilities to strategize and negotiate inter-/intra-seasonal variability are not being addressed by current supply-driven approaches. Lessons derived from seed aid give insights toward more effective practice for programs aiming to bolster farmers’ resilience in high-stress and uncertain contexts.     

Multi-decadal scale variability in autumn-winter rainfall in south-western Australia since 1655 AD as reconstructed from tree rings of Callitris columellaris

We present the first tree-ring based reconstruction of rainfall for the Lake Tay region of southern Western Australia. We examined the response of Callitris columellaris to rainfall, the southern oscillation index (SOI), the southern annular mode (SAM) and surface sea temperature (SST) anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean. The 350-year chronology was most strongly correlated with rainfall averaged over the autumn-winter period (March–September; r = ?0.70, P < 0.05) and SOI values averaged over June–August (r = 0.25, P < 0.05). The chronology was not correlated with SAM or SSTs. We reconstructed autumn-winter rainfall back to 1655, where current and previous year tree-ring indices explained 54% of variation in rainfall over the 1902–2005 calibration period. Some variability in rainfall was lost during the reconstruction: variability of actual rainfall (expressed as normalized values) over the calibration period was 0.78, while variability of the normalized reconstructed values over the same period was 0.44. Nevertheless, the reconstruction, combined with spectral analysis, revealed that rainfall naturally varies from relatively dry periods lasting to 20–30 years to 15-year long periods of above average rainfall. This variability in rainfall may reflect low-frequency variation in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation rather than the effect of SAM or SSTs.