Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

Fish Interactions with a Commercial-Scale Tidal Energy Device in the Natural Environment

Fish are a key part of the marine ecosystem likely to be affected by hydrokinetic tidal turbines, but little is known about their behavior around such obstacles in the natural environment. In September 2010, two DIDSON acoustic cameras were used to observe fish interactions with a commercial-scale turbine in Cobscook Bay, Maine. Twenty-two hours (nearly two tidal cycles) of footage were collected. Behaviors of individual fish and schools were classified (e.g., entering, avoiding, passing, or remaining in the wake of the turbine). We analyzed the effects of turbine motion (rotating or not rotating), diel condition (day or night), and fish size (small, ≤10 cm; large, >10 cm) on individual fish behaviors, and compared behaviors of individual fish to schools of fish. When the turbine was rotating, the probability of fish entering the turbine decreased by over 35 % from when it was not. The probability that fish would enter the turbine was higher at night than during the day, and this difference was greater for small fish than for large fish (probability of small fish entering?=?0.147 day, 0.513 night; large fish?=?0.043 day, 0.333 night). Fish were almost always present in the wake of the turbine. Schools of fish had a 56 % lower probability of entering the turbine than individual fish, and reacted at greater distances from the turbine (median distance of 2.5 m for schools, 1.7 m for individuals). This study indicates that fish behavior in response to tidal turbines appears to be similar to responses to obstacles such as trawls, and highlights the importance of environmental context in determining the effects of a tidal turbine on fish.     

On estimating time offsets in the ambient noise correlation function caused by instrument response errors

Broadband seismic networks are becoming more intensive, generating a large amount of data in the long-term collection process. When processing the data, the researchers rely almost on instrument response files to understand the information related to the instrument. Aiming at the process of instrument response recording and instrument response correction, we identify several sources of the instrument response phase error, including pole–zero change, the causality difference in instrument correction method, and the problem of filter coefficient recording. The data time offset range from the instrument response phase error is calculated from one sample point to several seconds using the ambient noise data recorded by multiple seismic stations. With different data delays, the time offset of the noise correlation function is estimated to be 74% to 99% of the data delay time. In addition, the influence of instrument response phase error on the measurement of seismic velocity change is analyzed by using ambient noise data with pole–zero change, and the results show that the abnormal wave velocity with exceeding the standard value is exactly in the time period of the instrument response error, which indicates that the instrument response error affects the study of seismology.     

Interference of Multiple Strip Footings on Sand Using Small Scale Model Tests

By using small scale model tests, the interference effect on the vertical load-deformation behavior of a number of equally spaced strip footings, placed on the surface of dry sand, was investigated. At any stage, all the footings were assumed to (i) carry exactly equal magnitude of load, and (ii) settle to the same extent. No tilt of the footing was permitted. The effect of clear spacing (s) among footings on the results was explored. A new experimental setup was proposed in which only one footing needs to be employed rather than a number of footings. The bearing capacity increases continuously with decrease in spacing among the footings. The interference effect becomes further prominent with increase in soil friction angle. In contrast to an increase in the bearing capacity, with decrease in spacing of footings, an increase in the footing settlement associated with the ultimate state of shear failure was observed. The present experimental observations were similar to those predicted by the available theory, based on the method of characteristics. As compared to the theory, the present experimental data, however, indicates much greater effect of interference especially for larger spacing among footings.     

Late Carboniferous porphyry copper mineralization at La Voluntad,Neuquén,Argentina: Constraints from Re–Os molybdenite dating

The La Voluntad porphyry Cu–Mo deposit in Neuquén, Argentina, is one of several poorly known porphyry-type deposits of Paleozoic to Early Jurassic age in the central and southern Andes. Mineralization at La Voluntad is related to a tonalite porphyry from the Chachil Plutonic Complex that intruded metasedimentary units of the Piedra Santa Complex. Five new Re–Os molybdenite ages from four samples representing three different vein types (i.e., quartz–molybdenite, quartz–sericite–molybdenite and quartz–sericite–molybdenite ± chalcopyrite–pyrite) are identical within error and were formed between ~312 to ~316 Ma. Rhenium and Os concentrations range between 34 to 183 ppm and 112 to 599 ppb, respectively. The new Re–Os ages indicate that the main mineralization event at La Voluntad, associated to sericitic alteration, was emplaced during a time span of 1.7 ± 3.2 Ma and that the deposit is Carboniferous in age, not Permian as previously thought. La Voluntad is the oldest porphyry copper deposit so far recognized in the Andes and indicates the presence of an active magmatic arc, with associated porphyry style mineralization, at the proto-Pacific margin of Gondwana during the Early Pennsylvanian.     

Application of multivariate statistical methods to indicate the origin and geochemical behavior of potentially hazardous elements in sediment around the Sarcheshmeh copper mine,SE Iran

Multivariate statistical techniques, i.e., correlation coefficient analysis, principal components analysis (PCA), and hierarchical cluster analysis (CA), were applied to the total and water-soluble concentrations of potentially hazardous metals in sediments associated with the Sarcheshmeh mine, one of the largest Oligo-Miocene porphyry copper deposits in the world. The samples were analyzed for hazardous metal concentration levels by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry method. Results indicate that the contaminant metals As, Cd, Cu, Mo, S, Sb, Sn, Se, Pb, and Zn were positively correlated with the total concentrations. These hazardous metals also have strong association in the PCA and CA results. Different anthropic versus natural sources of contaminant metals were distinguished by using CA method. Water-soluble fraction of hazardous metals showed that the hydro-geochemical behavior of these metals in sediments is different considerably. Elements such as Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, S, and Zn are readily water soluble from contaminated samples, especially from evaporative mineral phases, while the release of As, Mo, Sb, and Pb into the water is limited by adsorption processes. Results obtained from the application of multivariate techniques on the water-soluble fraction data set show that the hazardous metals are categorized into three groups including (1) Ni, S, Co, Cu, Cr, and Fe; (2) Se, Mn, Cd, and Zn; and (3) Sb, As, Mo, and Sn. This classification describes the hydro-geochemical behavior of hazardous metals in water–sediment environments of the Sarcheshmeh porphyry copper mine and can be used as a basis in remedial and treatment strategies.     

Effects of an Omnivorous Katydid,Salinity, and Nutrients on a Planthopper-<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina</Emphasis> Food Web

Top–down and bottom–up effects interact to structure communities, especially in salt marshes, which contain strong gradients in bottom–up drivers such as salinity and nutrients. How omnivorous consumers respond to variation in prey availability and plant quality is poorly understood. We used a mesocosm experiment to examine how salinity, nutrients, an omnivore (the katydid Orchelimum fidicinium) and an herbivore (the planthopper Prokelisia spp.) interacted to structure a simplified salt marsh food web based on the marsh grass Spartina alterniflora. Bottom–up effects were strong, with both salinity and nutrients decreasing leaf C/N and increasing Prokelisia abundance. Top–down effects on plants were also strong, with both the herbivore and the omnivore affecting S. alterniflora traits and growth, especially when nutrients or salt were added. In contrast, top–down control by Orchelimum of Prokelisia was independent of bottom–up conditions. Orchelimum grew best on a diet containing both Spartina and Prokelisia, and in contrast to a sympatric omnivorous crab, did not shift to an animal-based diet when prey were present, suggesting that it is constrained to consume a mixed diet. These results suggest that the trophic effects of omnivores depend on omnivore behavior, dietary constraints, and ability to suppress lower trophic levels, and that omnivorous katydids may play a previously unrecognized role in salt marsh food webs.     

Phenological Changes of Blooming Diatoms Promoted by Compound Bottom-Up and Top-Down Controls

Understanding phytoplankton species-specific responses to multiple biotic and abiotic stressors is fundamental to assess phenological and structural shifts at the community level. Here, we present the case of Thalassiosira curviseriata, a winter-blooming diatom in the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina, which displayed a noticeable decrease in the past decade along with conspicuous changes in phenology. We compiled interannual field data to assess compound effects of environmental variations and grazing by the invasive copepod Eurytemora americana. The two species displayed opposite trends over the period examined. The diatom decreased toward the last years, mainly during the winters, and remained relatively constant over the other seasons, while the copepod increased toward the last years, with an occurrence restricted to winter and early spring. A quantitative assessment by structural equation modeling unveiled that the observed long-term trend of T. curviseriata resulted from the synergistic effects of environmental changes driven by water temperature, salinity, and grazing. These results suggest that the shift in the abundance distribution of T. curviseriata toward higher annual ranges of temperature and salinity—as displayed by habitat association curves—constitutes a functional response to avoid seasonal overlapping with its predator in late winters. The observed changes in the timing and abundance of the blooming species resulted in conspicuous shifts in primary production pulses. Our results provide insights on mechanistic processes shaping the phenology and structure of phytoplankton blooms.