Debris-flow susceptibility analysis using fluvio-morphological parameters and data mining: application to the Central-Eastern Pyrenees

Based on debris-flow inventories and using a geographical information system, the susceptibility models presented here take into account fluvio-morphologic parameters, gathered for every first-order catchment. Data mining techniques on the morphometric parameters are used, to work out and test three different models. The first model is a logistic regression analysis based on weighting the parameters. The other two are classification trees, which are rather novel susceptibility models. These techniques enable gathering the necessary data to evaluate the performance of the models tested, with and without optimization. The analysis was performed in the Catalan Pyrenees and covered an area of more than 4,000 km². Results related to the training dataset show that the optimized models performance lie within former reported range, in terms of AUC, although closer to the lowest end (near 70 %). When the models are applied to the test set, the quality of most results decreases. However, out of the three different models, logistic regression seems to offer the best prediction, as training and test sets results are very similar, in terms of performance. Trees are better at extracting laws from a training set, but validation through a test set gives results unacceptable for a prediction at regional scale. Although omitting parameters in geology or vegetation, fluvio-morphologic models based on data mining, can be used in the framework of a regional debris-flow susceptibility assessment in areas where only a digital elevation model is available.     

Stochastic Lagrangian trajectory model for drifting objects in the ocean

The prediction of drifting object trajectories in the ocean is a complex problem plagued with uncertainties. This problem is usually solved simulating the possible trajectories based on wind and advective numerical and/or instrumental data in real time, which are incorporated into Lagrangian trajectory models. However, both data and Lagrangian models are approximations of reality and when comparing trajectory data collected from drifter exercises with respect to Lagrangian models results, they differ considerably. This paper introduces a stochastic Lagrangian trajectory model that allows quantifying the uncertainties related to: (i) the wind and currents numerical and/or instrumental data, and (ii) the Lagrangian trajectory model. These uncertainties are accounted for within the model through random model parameters. The quantification of these uncertainties consists in an estimation problem, where the parameters of the probability distribution functions of the random variables are estimated based on drifter exercise data. Particularly, it is assumed that estimated parameters maximize the likelihood of our model to reproduce the trajectories from the exercise. Once the probability distribution parameters are estimated, they can be used to simulate different trajectories, obtaining location probability density functions at different times. The advantage of this method is that it allows: (i) site specific calibration, and (ii) comparing uncertainties related to different wind and currents predictive tools. The proposed method is applied to data collected during the DRIFTER Project (eranet AMPERA, VI Programa Marco), showing very good predictive skills.     

Focal depths and mechanisms of Tohoku-Oki aftershocks from teleseismic P wave modeling

Aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki great earthquake have a wide range of focal depths and fault plane mechanisms. We constrain the focal depths and focal mechanisms of 69 aftershocks with M _w > 5.4 by modeling the waveforms of teleseismic P and its trailing near-surface reflections pP and sP. We find that the “thrust events” are within 10 km from the plate interface. The dip angles of these thrust events increase with depth from ~5° to ~25°. The “non-thrust events” vary from 60 km above to 40 km below the plate interface. Normal and strike-slip events within the overriding plate point to redistribution of stress following the primary great earthquake; however, due to the spatially variable stress change in the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, an understanding of how the mainshock affected the stresses that led to the aftershocks requires accurate knowledge of the aftershock location.     

Groundwater overexploitation and soil subsidence monitoring on Recife plain (Brazil)

Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.     

Effects of vegetation on flow and sediment transport: comparative analyses and validation of predicting models

The presence of vegetation modifies flow and sediment transport in alluvial channels and hence the morphological evolution of river systems. Plants increase the local roughness, modify flow patterns and provide additional drag, decreasing the bed‐shear stress and enhancing local sediment deposition. For this, it is important to take into account the presence of vegetation in morphodynamic modelling. Models describing the effects of vegetation on water flow and sediment transport already exist, but comparative analyses and validations on extensive datasets are still lacking. In order to provide practical information for modelling purposes, we analysed the performance of a large number of models on flow resistance, vegetation drag, vertical velocity profiles and bed‐shear stresses in vegetated channels. Their assessments and applicability ranges are derived by comparing their predictions with measured values from a large dataset for different types of submerged and emergent vegetation gathered from the literature. The work includes assessing the performance of the sediment transport capacity formulae of Engelund and Hansen and van Rijn in the case of vegetated beds, as well as the value of the drag coefficient to be used for different types of vegetation and hydraulic conditions. The results provide a unique comparative overview of existing models for the assessment of the effects of vegetation on morphodynamics, highlighting their performances and applicability ranges. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Viséan–Serpukhovian foraminiferans and calcareous algae from the Adarouch region (central Morocco), North Africa

Three Upper Viséan to Serpukhovian limestone formations from the Adarouch region (central Morocco), North Africa, have been dated precisely using foraminiferans and calcareous algae. The lower and middle part of the oldest formation, the Tizra Formation (Fm), is assigned to the latest Asbian (upper Cf6γ Subzone), and its upper part to the Early Brigantian (lower Cf6δ Subzone). The topmost beds of this formation are assigned to the Late Brigantian (upper Cf6δ Subzone). The lower part of the succeeding Mouarhaz Fm is also assigned to the Late Brigantian (upper Cf6δ Subzone). The Akerchi Fm is younger than the other formations within the region, ranging from the latest Brigantian (uppermost Cf6δ Subzone) up to the Serpukhovian (E₁–E₂). The base of the Serpukhovian (Pendleian Substage, E₁) is repositioned, to coincide with the appearance of a suite of foraminiferans including Archaediscus at tenuis stage, Endothyranopsis plana, Eostaffella pseudostruvei, Loeblichia ukrainica, Loeblichia aff. minima and Biseriella? sp. 1. The upper Serpukhovian (Arnsbergian Substage, E₂) is marked by the first appearance of Eostaffellina ex. gr. paraprotvae and Globoomphalotis aff. pseudosamarica. The biostratigraphical scheme used for the reassessment of the foraminiferal zones and subzones in the Adarouch area closely compares with that for the British succession in northern England (Pennine Region), where the stratotypes of the Upper Viséan (Asbian and Brigantian) and Early Serpukhovian (Pendleian) substages are located. Thus, a succession equivalent to an interval from the Melmerby Scar Limestone to the Great (or Little) Limestone is recognized. These assemblages are also compared to other foraminiferal zones proposed in other regions of Morocco. Several foraminiferans have been identified that are proposed as potential Serpukhovian markers for other basins in Western Europe, and compared to sequences in Russia and the Donets Basin, Ukraine. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thermal desorption of CH4 retained in CO2 ice

CO₂ ices are known to exist in different astrophysical environments. In spite of this, its physical properties (structure, density, refractive index) have not been as widely studied as those of water ice. It would be of great value to study the adsorption properties of this ice in conditions related to astrophysical environments. In this paper, we explore the possibility that CO₂ traps relevant molecules in astrophysical environments at temperatures higher than expected from their characteristic sublimation point. To fulfil this aim we have carried out desorption experiments under High Vacuum conditions based on a Quartz Crystal Microbalance and additionally monitored with a Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer. From our results, the presence of CH₄ in the solid phase above the sublimation temperature in some astrophysical scenarios could be explained by the presence of several retaining mechanisms related to the structure of CO₂ ice.     

On the design of beach nourishment projects using static equilibrium concepts: Application to the Spanish coast

The concept of equilibrium plan form and equilibrium profile has been widely used as an engineering tool in order to design beach nourishment projects. The scope of this paper is to further explore this “equilibrium beach” concept in crenulated bays, as a long-term tool for beach nourishment projects. The proposed methodology is based on González and Medina (2001) and combines the static equilibrium plan and profile for long-term analysis. This methodology includes a modified equilibrium plan form, which is able to define the orientation of the local wave front in the diffracting point, and also to locate the downcoast starting point of the static equilibrium beach from which the parabolic plan form of Hsu and Evans (1989) is valid. This methodology permits the application of any equilibrium profile formulation. An example of the application of this methodology and long-term formulations to the design of the Spanish nourishment project of Poniente Beach (Gijón) is presented. Ten years after its construction, the beach has still got a static equilibrium and remains pretty close to the predicted equilibrium beach in plan and profile.