高美古空气湿度的初步分析

给出丽江高美古天文候选点两年的湿度观测结果与宾川３００２ｍ山峰的比较,初步分析了湿度对天文可用时间及视宁度的影响。     

Investigation of failures in Irish raised bogs

This paper presents the results of field geophysical testing and laboratory testing of peat from Carn Park and Roosky raised bogs in the Irish Midlands. The motivation for the work was highlight the importance of these areas and to begin to attempt to understand the reasons for the failure of the bogs despite them having surface slopes of some 1°. It was found that the peat is typical of that of Irish raised bogs being up to 8 m thick towards the “high” dome of the bogs. The peat is characterised by low density, high water content, high organic content, low undrained shear strength and high compressibility. The peat is also relatively permeable at in situ stress. Geophysical electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar data shows a clear thinning of the peat in the area of the failures corresponding to a reduction in volume from dewatering by edge drains/peat harvesting. This finding is supported by detailed water content measurements. It was also shown that the peat base topography is relatively flat and indicates that the observed surface movement has come from within the peat rather than from the material below the peat. Potential causes of the failures include conventional slope instability, the effect of seepage forces or the release of built-up gas in the peat mass. Further measurements are required in order to study these in more detail.     

Slope stability analysis using a physically based model: a case study from A Luoi district in Thua Thien-Hue Province,Vietnam

A case study of slope stability mapping is presented for the A Luoi district situated in the mountainous western part of Thua Thien-Hue Province in Central Vietnam, where slope failures occur frequently and seriously affect local living conditions. The methodology is based on the infinite slope stability model, which calculates a safety factor as the ratio between shear strength and shear stress. The triggering mechanism for slope instability considered in the analysis is the maximum daily precipitation recorded in a 28-year period (1976–2003) taking into account runoff and infiltration predicted with a hydrological model. All necessary physical parameters are derived from topography, soil texture, and land use, in GIS-raster grid format with pixel size of 30 by 30 m. Results of the analysis are compared with a slope failure inventory map of 2001, showing that more than 86.9 % of the existing slope failures are well predicted by the physically based slope stability model. It can be concluded that the larger part of the study area is prone to landsliding. The resulting slope stability map is useful for further research and land-use planning, but for precise prediction of future slope failures, more effort is needed with respect to spatial variation of causative factors and analysis techniques.     

四川省甘孜州康定县高原地热井施工工艺

康定县地热资源丰富,但开发利用少,仅2008-2009年由四川省地质工程勘察院在中谷地区实施地热勘探井2口,钻探深度共计184.96m。DZK02井是部署在四川省雅拉河中上游热水塘区块地热资源大盖沟沟口雅拉河右岸一级阶地上的第一口预探井,设计井深2 000m。钻井施工主要面临地层倾角大、地层出水量大、温度高、岩性破碎等施工难题。施工队伍采用螺杆纠斜、清水控压等钻井工艺,圆满完成了该井的施工任务。为该地区地热水的开发利用进行了有益的尝试。     

A comparison of measured 137Cs and excess 210Pb levels in the cultivated brown and cinnamon soils of the Yimeng Mountain area

This contribution analyzes the similarities and differences between the measured activities of 137Cs and excess 210pb （210Pbex） in the cultivated brown and cinnamon soils of the Yimeng Mountain area, discusses the influ- ence of soil texture on the measurement of 210Pbex, and presents differences between the two types of soils. Fields A and B were selected to represent the fields that contain cultivated brown and cinnamon soils, respectively. From either study field, one site of sectioned core and six bulk cores were collected to measure 137Cs levels, 210Pbex levels, and the particle-size composition of soil samples. Three undisturbed soil samples were collected to measure capillary and aeration porosities. The 137Cs inventories for the two study fields are very similar. The 137Cs is a man-made ra- dionuclide, which means that its measured levels for soils are unaffected by soil texture. In contrast, levels of the naturally occurring 210Pbex of soils from Field A were lower than those of Field B by about 50%. In contrast to aquatic sediments, levels of 210Pbex in terrestrial surface soils are affected by the emanation of 222Rn from the soils. It can be assumed that the coarser the soils, the greater the emanation of 222Rn; in addition, the lower the measured 210pbex, the greater the underestimate of this value. The cultivated brown soils in Field A are coarser than the culti- vated cinnamon soils in Field B. As a result, 222Rn in Field A will diffuse more easily into the atmosphere than that in Field B. As a consequence, the measured 210pbex in soils from Field A is much lower than the actual value, whereas the value measured for Field B is much closer to the actual value.     

N451型伽玛能谱测井探管的研制与铀钍伽玛能谱测井技术研究

为准确测定铀钍混合型矿床中矿层的铀、钍含量,研制了 N451型伽玛能谱测井探管,并将该探管配接在 HD 4002B轻型综合测井系统上组成了伽玛能谱测井系统.基于该系统,建立了伽玛能谱测井仪的校正方法、伽玛能谱测井的数据处理方法和野外测井工作方法.N451型伽玛能谱测井探管具有探测效率高、自动稳谱系统抗辐射能力强的特点,在铀矿勘查中连续测定钻孔中矿层的U、Th含量,效果良好.     

An objective prediction model for typhoon rainstorm using particle swarm optimization: neural network ensemble

A nonlinear ensemble prediction model for typhoon rainstorm has been developed based on particle swarm optimization-neural network (PSO-NN). In this model, PSO algorithm is employed for optimizing the network structure and initial weight of the NN with creating multiple ensemble members. The model input of the ensemble member is the high correlated grid point factors selected from the rainfall forecast field of Japan Meteorological Agency numerical prediction products using the stepwise regression method, and the model output is the future 24 h rainfall forecast of the 89 stations. Results show that the objective prediction model is more accurate than the numerical prediction model which is directly interpolated into the stations, so it can better been implemented for the interpretation and application of numerical prediction products, indicating a potentially better operational weather prediction.     

我国海洋环境污染突发事件应急处置法律体系的构建

为有效应对海洋环境污染和保护海洋生态环境,文章在明确海洋环境污染突发事件基本概念、分类和特征的基础上,分析我国海洋环境污染突发事件应急处置的立法现状和存在的不足,并提出对策建议。研究结果表明：海洋环境污染突发事件是突发环境事件的种类之一,成因可归为自然因素和人为因素,具有污染源复杂、突然性和不确定性、危害后果严重以及应急处置艰难等特征;目前我国宪法和法律针对突发环境事件有相关规定,而专门规制海洋环境污染突发事件应急处置的法律规范多见于行政法规和规章;以问题为导向,构建我国海洋环境污染突发事件应急处置法律体系应进一步完善应急预案制度、完善风险信息收集途经、明确执法主体职能职责和建立应急联动机制、健全公众参与制度、建立企业信息通报问责制度以及完善后续调查评估制度和相关补偿制度。     

基于KPCA的台风强度神经网络集合预报方法研究

针对影响台风强度前期预报因子较多以及因子的非线性变化特点,首先采用逐步回归方法筛选出部分预报因子,再利用核主成分分析方法在剩余的预报因子中提取包含了原数据较多信息的核主成分与前期选入的预报因子共同作为模型输入.进一步考虑到神经网络集合预报中个体的准确性和差异性的权衡问题,在不同的初始条件下生成若干组神经网络,分别选择每组中性能最优的个体,建立了一种新的非线性神经网络集合预报模型.最后以西北太平洋海域2001-2010年5-10月的台风强度为研究对象进行了预报试验.结果表明,这种神经网络集合预报模型的预报结果符合实际应用的要求,其预报平均绝对误差明显小于同等条件下的神经网络方法和逐步回归预报方法.