双循环新格局下重庆市城镇化发展动力与实现路径

源于时代之变而构筑的双循环新发展格局是市场经济条件下多尺度空间输出理论与劳动地域大分工的“叠加”,为新型城镇化发展带来新的动力源泉。为了揭示这种影响,首先将科技创新和制度改革这2个城镇化发展动力外生变量内生化,构建基于“四维驱动力模型+创新力+制度力”的城镇化动力因子分析框架,结合主成分回归模型对2000年以来重庆市城镇化发展动力进行分析,并据此引入波特的“钻石模型”对其城镇化发展路径进行系统思考。结果表明：1）纳入动力因子体系的创新力和制度力对重庆市城镇化发展产生显著的正向驱动效应,其中创新力表现最为明显。2）重庆市城镇化发展是“六维力”共同作用的结果,但市场力和行政力依然是最主要的驱动力;其次是创新力、内源力和外向力,其中创新力对城镇化发展的驱动效应已在阶段2(2010—2018年)超越行政力的作用效应;最后是制度力;间接反映重庆市城镇化本身是一个内生作用的过程,构筑“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”新发展格局具有客观必然性和前瞻性。3）基于波特“钻石模型”分析指出：重庆市存在增长极体量小、市场购买力不足、产品低端化、同质化现象严重等问题,并据此从发展高级生产要素、创造...     

河西走廊西段花海断裂几何学、运动学及区域构造意义

花海断裂位于河西走廊西段花海盆地内,总体走向NNW-SSE,长约38 km,为一条隐伏断裂,研究其空间展布、运动性质和活动历史对于理解青藏高原北缘的构造变形和扩展方式有重要意义.基于卫片解译、野外实地和槽探,结合光释光测年和地球物理资料,发现沿双泉子、大泉至小泉一带,发育一段长约8 km的地形陡坎,代表断裂控制下褶皱作...     

海底光缆的地震影响分析

根据我国地震台网测定,北京时间2006年12月26日20时26分和34分,在南海海域发生7.2、6.7级地震。受强烈地震影响,多条国际海底通信光缆中断,造成附近国家和地区的国际和地区性通信受到严重影响。这次地震以前,海底光缆故障主要是由渔船造成,而地震的影响常常被忽视。本文在总结海底光缆3次震害经验的基础上,提出了地震影响海底光缆的主要因素以及海底光缆的抗震措施。     

潜在地震灾害预测和评价神经网络系统及其若干问题

结合人工神经网络自身的特性和地震灾害预测研究的特点,本文应用神经网络模型,建立了潜在地震灾害预测和评价系统。针对网络模型参数设置、数据归一化、中间层神经元最优数目以及泛化分类评价指标等若干实际问题给出了实际可行的解决方案。通过大样本数据对网络的训练,形成了有识别和记忆功能的非线性预测和评价系统。对网络的测试和检验,论证了该系统在预测潜在地震灾害上的可行性和有效性。同时,从测试精度出发,探讨了这种预测网络存在的不足,并给出了相应的改进建议,为开展进一步的研究工作提供了参考。     

读《地震地下流体学》的初浅体会

中国地震局地质研究所资深专家、中国地震局地下流体学科组顾问车用太研究员与鱼金子、王基华、刘五洲、孙君秀、林元武等合作编著的《地震地下流体学》,在地震科     

Effects of periodically varying codes on separation of multisource blended data

Current exploration needs are satisfied by multisource technology,which offers low cost,high efficiency,and high precision.The delay time,which determines the s...     

1958-2017年太湖蒸发量年际变化趋势及主控因子

湖泊蒸发对气候变化非常敏感,是水文循环响应气候变化的指示因子,因此研究湖泊蒸发的控制因素,对于理解区域水文循环有重要意义.本文利用太湖中尺度涡度通量网避风港站观测数据校正JRA-55再分析资料,驱动CLM4.0-LISSS模型,并利用2012-2017年涡度相关通量数据和湖表面温度数据检验模型模拟蒸发结果,验证了该模型在太湖的适用性;估算了1958-2017年间太湖的湖面蒸发量,并利用Manner-Kendall趋势检验分析了湖面蒸发的变化趋势,寻找太湖实际蒸发的年际变化的主控因子.结果如下:校正后的JRA-55再分析资料模拟的太湖蒸发与观测值之间存在季节偏差,但是季节偏差在年尺度上相互抵消,再分析资料可用于年际尺度太湖蒸发变化的模拟;1958-2017年间太湖蒸发量以1977年为界,先下降(-3.6 mm/a),后增加(2.3 mm/a);多元逐步回归结果表明,向下的短波辐射是太湖1958-2017年间太湖蒸发变化的主控因子,向下的长波辐射、气温、比湿也对湖泊蒸发年际变化有一定影响,但是风速对蒸发量的年际变化影响不大.     

Understanding the dynamical-microphysical-electrical processes associated with severe thunderstorms over the Beijing metropolitan region

The Dynamical-microphysical-electrical Processes in Severe Thunderstorms and Lightning Hazards(STORM973)project conducted coordinated comprehensive field observations of thunderstorms in the Beijing metropolitan region(BMR)during the warm season from 2014 to 2018.The aim of the project was to understand how dynamical,microphysical and electrical processes interact in severe thunderstorms in the BMR,and how to assimilate lightning data in numerical weather prediction models to improve severe thunderstorm forecasts.The platforms used in the field campaign included the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET,consisting of 16 stations),2 X-band dual linear polarimetric Doppler radars,and 4 laser raindrop spectrometers.The collaboration also made use of the China Meteorological Administration’s mesoscale meteorological observation network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Although diverse thunderstorm types were documented,it was found that squall lines and multicell storms were the two major categories of severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning activity and extreme rainfall or unexpected local short-duration heavy rainfall resulting in inundations in the central urban area,influenced by the terrain and environmental conditions.The flash density maximums were found in eastern Changping District,central and eastern Shunyi District,and the central urban area of Beijing,suggesting that the urban heat island effect has a crucial role in the intensification of thunderstorms over Beijing.In addition,the flash rate associated with super thunderstorms can reach hundreds of flashes per minute in the central city regions.The super(5%of the total),strong(35%),and weak(60%)thunderstorms contributed about 37%,56%,and 7%to the total flashes in the BMR,respectively.Owing to the close connection between lightning activity and the thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of the thunderstorms,the lightning flash rate can be used as an indicator of severe weather events,such as hail and short-duration heavy rainfall.Lightning data can also be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to help improve the forecasting of severe convection and precipitation at the cloud-resolved scale,through adjusting or correcting the thermodynamic and microphysical parameters of the model.     

Facies character and geochemical signature in the late Quaternary meteoric diagenetic carbonate succession at the Xisha Islands,South China Sea

The late Quaternary shallow-water carbonates have been altered by a variety of diagenetic processes, and further influenced by high-amplitude global and regional sea level changes. This study utilizes a new borehole drilled on the Yongxing Island, Xisha Islands to investigate meteoric diagenetic alteration in the late Quaternary shallowwater carbonates. Petrographic, mineralogical, stable isotopic and elemental data provide new insights into the meteoric diagenetic processes of the reef limestone. The results show the variation in the distribution of aragonite,high-Mg calcite(HMC) and low-Mg calcite(LMC) divides the shallow-water carbonates in Core SSZK1 into three intervals, which are Unit I(31.20–55.92 m, LMC), Unit II(18.39–31.20 m, aragonite and LMC) and Unit III(upper 18.39 m of core, aragonite, LMC and HMC). Various degrees of meteoric diagenesis exist in the identified three units. The lowermost Unit I has suffered almost complete freshwater diagenesis, whereas the overlying Units II and III have undergone incompletely meteoric diagenesis. The amount of time that limestone has been in the freshwater diagenetic environment has the largest impact on the degree of meteoric diagenesis. Approximately four intact facies/water depth cycles are recognized. The cumulative depletion of elements such as strontium(Sr),sodium(Na) and sulphur(S) caused by duplicated meteoric diagenesis in the older reef sequences are distinguished from the younger reef sequences. This study provides a new record of meteoric diagenesis, which is well reflected by whole-rock mineralogy and geochemistry.     

金银花尺蠖的发生与气象条件的关系

金银花尺蠖是近年发现的金银花产区的主要害虫,该虫在封丘县每年发生4代.通过对金银花尺蠖发生的气象因子分析,得出金银花尺蠖发生与气象条件的关系,并结合金银花尺蠖的生活特性提出了防治措施.