Quantifying differences between reservoir inflows and dam site floods using frequency and risk analysis methods

Reservoirs are the most important constructions for water resources management and flood control. Great concern has been paid to the effects of reservoir on downstream area and the differences between inflows and dam site floods due to the changes of upstream flow generation and concentration conditions after reservoir’s impoundment. These differences result in inconsistency between inflow quantiles and the reservoir design criteria derived by dam site flood series, which can be a potential risk and must be quantificationally evaluated. In this study, flood frequency analysis (FFA) and flood control risk analysis (FCRA) methods are used with the long reservoir inflow series derived from a multiple inputs and single output model and a copula-based inflow estimation model. The results of FFA and FCRA are compared and the influences on reservoir flood management are also discussed. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is selected as a case study. Results show that the differences between the TGR inflow and dam site floods are significant which result in changes on its flood control risk rates. The mean values of TGR’s annual maximum inflow peak discharge and 3 days flood volume have increased 5.58 and 3.85% than the dam site ones, while declined by 1.82 and 1.72% for the annual maximum 7 and 15 days flood volumes. The flood control risk rates of middle and small flood events are increased while extreme flood events are declined. It is shown that the TGR can satisfy the flood control task under current hydrologic regime and the results can offer references for better management of the TGR.     

海口ZK26井多层位水温对比观测

在系统清理海口ZK26井3个不同层位(-153 m、-336 m、-510 m)近10年观测资料对比的基础上,对比单井多层位水温动态多年趋势、年、月、日动态类型,并对其不同动态类型的成因及影响因素进行分析.对比观测结果表明,海口ZK26井不同层位的水温表现出不同的正常动态特征,与观测层位的水文条件、水力性质有着密切的联...     

Hydrological situation of a typical watershed in the Loess Tableland Area of China over the past 30 years

Due to deficient water resources in the Loess Plateau, watershed management plays a very important role, not only for ecological and environmental protection but also for the social development of the region. To better understand the hydrological and water resource variations in the typical watershed of the Loess Plateau and the Qinghe River Basin, the influences of land cover and climate change were analysed, and a SWAT model was built to simulate the response of the hydrological situation to land cover changes that have occurred over the past 30 years. The results demonstrated that the main land cover change occurring in the Qinghe River Basin was the conversion of land cover from grassland to woodland and farmland from the late 1980s to 2010. Woodland and farmland took 87.36 and 10.55%, respectively, from the overall area transferred over 20 years and more than 18% of the total watershed area. Hydrological simulation results indicated that land cover played a predominant role in the hydrological variation of the Qinghe River Basin, although the effects of climate change should not be discounted. The significant changes in land cover could be superimposed by policy orientation and economic requirements. Although it is hard to evaluate the land cover changes and the corresponding hydrological responses in a simple language, related analyses have demonstrated an increasing trend of runoff in the dry season, while there is a somewhat decreasing trend during the flood season in the river basin. There results could be significant and provide a positive influence on both future flood control and the conservation of water and soil.     

中国地震网格试验系统中资源管理与作业调度研究-资源管理和作业动态分配模型ProRMJS的建立me

通过分析与研究建立资源管理和作业动态分配ProRMJS模型,解决了中国地震灾害仿真网格试验系统（CEDAGrid）中网格科学计算平台在初期建设中存在的一些资源管理方面的问题. 针对网格科学计算平台默认各个计算节点均能提供计算服务的问题,ProRMJS通过ldquo;计算池rdquo;这一虚拟组织为调度器分发作业提供支撑;而调度器则根据计算池中各个节点的计算能力和状态,动态分配任务,这样就保证了计算平台的稳定性. 针对默认各个计算节点均能完成任务的问题, ProRMJS通过监控各个节点所负担作业的运行进度和设定作业时间阈值来管理作业运行. 对于各个节点计算能力大小的区别, ProRMJS通过对各个节点计算性能的权值量化,实行按ldquo;需rdquo;分配作业. 对各个节点计算性能的权值量化, ProRMJS是通过综合考虑各个因素对机器计算能力大小的影响后通过加权计算的方式完成的,从而提高了整个计算平台的工作效率. 最后通过实现地震应力触发科学计算实例验证了方案的有效性,为网格技术在地震领域内的进一步应用作了有意义的探索.      

Phase Modulation Effect of the Rubincam Insolation Variations on Climate Change

Summary For astronomical seasons, Rubincam insolation deviations at latitude 65° N varied from 218.50 Wm⁻² to 225.75 Wm⁻² (3%). The periodicity of the insolation cycles varied from 36.7 Kyr to 44.7 Kyr (20%) due to phase shift. Phase shift of insolation variations can induce asymmetry of the insolation cycles, permitting rapid melting and prolonged glaciation of ice sheets to occur. For instance, an abnormal decrease of the insolation frequency during the longer period of glacial interval would prolong glaciation into deep ice age. In this study, we apply Rubincam’s insolation equations to investigate the phase shift effect of insolation variations on climate change. Using complex transforms of the changing insolation, we have detected a phase modulation signal in the insolation variations. As a result, an especially new and interesting series of the phase-related insolation pulsation is established. The phase modulated insolation is then introduced as a forcing function into energy balance climate models. Results of model computations shed new insights into the spectrum of the paleoclimatic proxy-data. It is shown that phase modulation of the insolation may provide an appropriate and complete external forcing mechanism to which the climate system would respond. The 100 Kyr cycle of the frequency modulation of the Rubincam’s insolation variations does seem adequate to change the climate. Received July 16, 1997 Revised May 18, 1998     

铁岭市近45年气候变化特征分析

利用线性倾向率、滑动平均等方法,对铁岭市1960--2004年间4个气象观测站的月平均气温、降水量、平均最高气温、平均最低气温以及初终霜、无霜期、积温、透雨等资料进行分析,结果发现铁岭市近45年气候变化特点为温度呈上升、降水略减少的趋势,特别是近15年,气温增暖幅度加大,降水春夏两季减少明显;但各季增温幅度差异较大,对气候变暖贡献最大的是冬季,平均最低气温升温幅度明显高于平均最高气温,气温日较差变小;初霜拖后、终霜提前及无霜期延长,积温明显增多,透雨偏晚频率增大,极端气候事件出现的几率增大。     

雅鲁藏布中新生代深水沉积盆地形成和演化(Ⅰ)——喜马拉雅造山带沉积特征及演化

通过对喜马拉雅三叠纪到第三纪区域沉积特征分析,阐明了雅鲁藏布喜马拉雅特提斯造山带从裂谷—被动大陆边缘—前陆盆地的沉积盆地演化史。随着以雅鲁藏布带为代表的喜马拉雅特提斯打开,三叠纪到早侏罗世为特提斯早期裂开的大陆边缘裂谷盆地。早期裂谷中心部位不是现在大陆缝合线的雅鲁藏布一带,而在低分水岭带。晚侏罗世到早白垩世,雅鲁藏布江南测为典型被动大陆边缘,其沉积盆地沉降、海平面变化与沉积作用相吻合。晚白垩世到第三纪为前陆盆地演化阶段,从沉积作用可以识别出晚白垩世晚期为造山第一暮,第三纪初为第二幕。     

滇西弥沙河断裂带构造特征及演化

弥沙河断裂带为金沙江断裂带的南段,其构造变形复杂。该断裂带由构造混杂带和推覆构造带两个构造单元组成。构造混杂带宽约２ｋｍ,由劈理化基质和构造岩片组成。推覆构造带由五套推覆体构成。这些推覆体在空间上层层叠置,并形成构造倒序结构。弥沙河断裂带的早期活动是在晚海西期,大规模的逆冲－推覆作用是在喜马拉雅期。     

海南岛崖州湾表层沉积物空间分布特征及其受控机制

基于崖州湾海域141个表层沉积物粒度分析数据,研究表层沉积物的粒级组分、粒度参数及其沉积动力环境特征。结果表明,研究区底质类型主要有泥质砂质砾、砾质泥质砂、砂、粉砂质砂、砂质粉砂和粉砂6种,砂质粉砂分布最为广泛;粒径总体趋势表现为自北向南由细变粗再变细的NEE条带状分布特征,分选系数总体偏高,反映了该区复杂的物源和水动力条件。运用Flemming三角图式,结合粒度象、研究区物源、水动力条件及地形特征,将研究区划分为3个沉积环境：近岸主要受控于波浪掀沙和搬运作用,粒径较细,表现为波控沉积特征;中部主要受控于径流、波浪和潮流共同作用,粒径粗,分选差,表现为河口沉积特征;南部主要受控于潮流输沙作用,波浪作用减弱,粒径细,分选相对较好,表现为相对低能的沉积环境。沉积物输移趋势分析显示研究区中西部为一沉积物汇聚中心,近岸侵蚀物质、宁远河输运物质以及外海潮流输运物质均向该处运移。     

黄骅电厂取水河段取水特性的数模与物模研究

本文采用数值模拟与物模试验相结合的研究方法，详细地研究了黄骅电厂一、二、三期工程的取水特性。结果表明，现有河道只能满足电厂一期工程的取水需求；若将现有河道进行适当开挖，可以满足电厂三期取水需要。