近30年西藏地区大气可降水量的时空变化特征

利用1980-2009年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及同期西藏地区34个气象站的月降水量资料,分析了该地区大气可降水量和降水转化率的时空变化特征.结果表明:(1)该地区大气可降水量具有从东南向西北逐渐递减的空间分布特征;近30年大气可降水量呈逐渐减少趋势且年际变率相对较小,还表现出显著的季节差异,即夏季大气可降水量最大、冬季最小;多、少雨年大气可降水量的空间差异不显著,说明西藏地区的空中水汽含量相对稳定,有利于空中水资源的合理开发和利用.(2)降水转化率在那曲中东部和西藏东南部最高、西藏西北部最低;近30年西藏地区降水转化率呈逐渐增加趋势且年际变率较大,其季节变化与大气可降水量的变化规律一致;降水转化率的高低在一定程度上决定了某年为多(少)雨年.(3)西藏地区大气可降水量和实际降水量的空间分布规律接近,但其时间变化趋势与同期降水量增加的趋势正好相反;大气可降水量转化率与实际降水量的变化趋势基本一致,降水转化率的升高(降低)对应着降水量的增多(减少).     

Coupling a 1D-local inertia 2D hydraulic model for flood dispatching simulation in a floodplain under joint control of multiple gates

Natural Hazards - A 2D local inertial equations model coupled with a 1D hydraulic model was established to simulate flood dispatching in river and flood detention areas. A simplified first-order...     

城市边缘区景观变化与人为影响的空间分异研究

利用1988、1993、1998年的遥感影像，应用最大似然法和概率松弛法对马山景观组分进行了测量，在此基础上，对分类结果进行比较求得研究区景观变化的转移短也阵，分析了人为改造活动与景观组分之间的对应关系和空间变化过程，马山区已经从1988年的传统农业景观转化为1998年的城郊混合景观，人口、经济、产业结构均发生了巨大变化，借助人为影响指数，利用网格采样和地统计学分析，研究了马山1988-1998年间景观的人为开发利用活动，揭示人为活动的空间变异强度分布及景观转变过程的社会驱动力。     

长江流域城市的生态环境问题与跨世纪城市持续发展战略

综合分析评价了长江流域城市的生态环境态热与问题,城市水环境依恶化,特别是城市内河道,湖泊水质多污染严重。城市大气污染仍呈加重趋向,一些特大城市汽车尾气污染上升,城市酸雨依然严重。城市生态问题沉重,绿地不足,热岛加重,地面沉降,水土流失等。     

震源时间函数与震源破裂过程

简要介绍了现代数字地震学的两个重要概念。一个是震源时间函数，另一个是地震震源的时空破裂过程。首先，从地震断层位移表示定量出发，介绍震源时间函数和震源破裂过程的基本概念。然后，分别介绍两种从远场地震记录中提取震源时间函数和获取有限断层面上时空破裂过程图像的反演方法。     

Stochastic delineation of wellhead protection area in fractured aquifers and parametric sensitivity study

 In many countries, the setup of protection areas around every drinking water well was instituted at a national level in order to preserve the quality of water as well as the perennially of the resource. Wellhead protection surfaces have been defined using capture zones showing the area influenced by a well within a certain time. A stochastic method is developed for delineating time-related capture zones in fractured aquifers characterised by a low porosity and a high degree of fracturing. The flow velocity within the fractures is determined statistically depending on the distribution of the fracture features and the mass transfer solution is obtained through a particle tracking algorithm. Probabilistic capture zone curves are obtained as a function of the travel time of particles to the well and the percentage of particles apt to be extracted up to this time. A sensitivity study of fracture network parameters leads to the conclusion that orientations and aperture distribution of the fracture sets are of primary importance to the wellhead protection delineation.     

<Superscript>230</Superscript>Th/<Superscript>238</Superscript>U dating of hydrothermal sulfides from Duanqiao hydrothermal field,Southwest Indian Ridge

Duanqiao hydrothermal field is located between the Indomed and Gallieni fracture zones at the central volcano, at 50°28′E in the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR). Twenty-eight subsamples from a relict chimney and massive sulfides were dated using the ²³⁰Th/²³⁸U method. Four main episodes of hydrothermal activity were determined according to the restricted results: 68.9–84.3, 43.9–48.4, 25.3–34.8, and 0.7–17.3 kyrs. Hydrothermal activity of Duanqiao probably started about 84.3 (±0.5) kyrs ago and ceased about 0.737 (±0.023) kyrs ago. The periodic character of hydrothermal activity may be related to the heat source provided by the interaction of local magmatism and tectonism. The estimated mean growth rate of the sulfide chimney is <0.02 mm/yr. This study is the first to estimate the growth rate of chimneys in the SWIR. The maximum age of the relict chimney in Duanqiao hydrothermal filed is close to that of the chimneys from Mt. Jourdanne (70 kyrs). The hydrothermal activity in Dragon Flag field is much more recent than that of Duanqiao or Mt. Jourdanne fields. The massive sulfides are younger than the sulfides from other hydrothermal fields such as Rainbow, Sonne and Ashadze-2. The preliminarily estimated reserves of sulfide ores of Duanqiao are approximately 0.5–2.9 million tons.     

以流动看世界——基于彼得·阿迪《流动性》的研究述评

“流动”正改变着人们的生存、生活和生产方式。流动性经历了从学科间独立的分散研究,到以地理学和社会学为主导的多学科研究,再转向新流动性范式下的跨学科研究。其中,彼得·阿迪（Peter Adey）的《流动性》（Mobility）（第二版）是一部梳理流动性演变脉络、解读理论并联系案例和方法的力作。因此,文章从流动性研究产生的背景、主要内容、研究方法与运用3个方面凝练该书观点,指出未来研究要跳出以二元对立看问题的思维方式,用一种网络化、关系式和辩证的思维洞察世界,在深度理解流动的意义、政治、实践和媒介基础上进行流动性研究。最后,文章基于国内研究现状,提出未来可以从流动性政治、流动性时空维度、旅游与流动性、流动主体的多元化、流动性研究方法等几个方面展开深入研究。     

台风灾害综合等级评判模型改进及应用分析

本文首先对2010年王秀荣等建立的台风灾害综合等级评判模型进行了改进,主要基于以下三个方面:一是对倒损房屋数指标的转换函数进行重新定义,二是对直接经济损失指标的去通货膨胀化;三是对原模型综合关联度指数分析中"死亡人数、直接经济损失、倒损房屋数、农作物受淹面积"4个指标的权重系数优化;然后,运用改进模型对2000—2015年登陆我国的历史台风灾害进行了综合等级评定与大小排序;同时,将评定结果与原模型的评定结果进行了比对。通过应用与检验分析,证明了改进后模型明显降低了通货膨胀对直接经济损失指数的影响,凸显了以人为本的防灾理念,较原模型具有更好的等级识别度,评定灾情等级结果更符合实际灾情,具备较好的评判功能,可以试用于气象服务等相关业务中快速对台风灾情进行综合等级或历史排序等评判。