利用综合评分方法评估CMIP5模式对北极海冰的模拟能力

北极海冰冰盖自20世纪以来经历了前所未有的缩减,这使得北极海冰异常对大气环流的反馈作用日益显现。尽管目前的气候模式模拟北极海冰均为减少的趋势,但各模式间仍然存在较大的分散性。为了评估模式对于北极海冰变化及其气候效应的模拟能力,我们将海冰线性趋势和年际异常两者结合起来构造了一种合理的衡量指标。我们还强调巴伦支与卡拉海的重要性,因为前人研究证明此区域海冰异常是近年来影响大尺度大气环流变异的关键因子。根据我们设定的标准,CMIP5模式对海冰的模拟可被归为三种类型。这三组多模式集合平均之间存在巨大的差异,验证了这种分组方法的合理性。此外,我们还进一步探讨了造成模式海冰模拟能力差别的潜在物理因子。结果表明模式所采用的臭氧资料集对海冰模拟能力有显著的影响。     

检测前跟踪框架下利用蒙特卡洛算法的空间碎片跟踪策略研究（英文）

在轨卫星或者空间碎片数量的增多,是对空间目标地基自动观测的一个挑战。尽管北美防空司令部编目管理了绝大多数直径超过10 cm的空间物体,但由于轨道摄动,空间目标的位置信息(基于6个轨道根数)依然非常重要,并需要定期更新。在过去的几十年里,配备电子传感器的现代地基光电望远镜已广泛用于天体测量领域。然而,这种设备的跟踪性能主要取决于空间目标的大小和亮度。这些目标所在的天文图像会有不同的背景;而且,在基于凝视模式的短曝光实时观测过程中,运动目标和背景恒星在不同的信噪比下显示为类似的点扩散函数,难以辨认。本研究是为了实现对非高斯和动态背景的高灵敏度检测和跟踪能力的提高,并具有简单的系统机制和出色的计算效率。为突破该限制,将重点放在利用状态估计技术对微小卫星和暗弱目标进行跟踪上。提出一种基于神经网络的自适应运行高斯平均算法,用以从恒星背景及干扰下提取运动的空间目标。该方法随后被集成到了一个检测前跟踪框架中。该框架利用基于蒙特卡洛的粒子滤波跟踪空间目标。三段来自亚太地基光学空间目标观测系统(APOSOS)图像序列被用来对该跟踪策略进行评估。实验结果表明,该方法能够达到满意的跟踪性能。     

Microtremor-based analysis of the dynamic response characteristics of earth-fissured sites in the Datong basin,China

This study conducted microtremor testing along six survey lines that cross three typical earth fissures in the Datong basin to determine the dynamic response characteristics of earth fissure sites with regard to the Fourier amplitude spectrum, response spectrum, and Arias intensity. The results show the following.(1) The predominant frequency of an earth fissure site is mainly affected by the thickness and the shear wave velocity of the soil layer and is minimally effected by the presence of an earth fissure.(2) Earth fissures have a pronounced amplification effect on dynamic response. Fourier amplitude, response acceleration, and Arias intensity are high near an earth fissure and decrease with an increase in distance from the earth fissure, tending toward stability at a distance of 20 m.(3) The area that is seriously affected by this amplification is within 6–8 m of an earth fissure, and the general affected area is farther out than this, to a distance of 25 m.(4) New construction should be avoided in an area affected by the amplification, and existing buildings in general and seriously affected areas need to be reinforced to increase their seismic fortification intensity.     

基于模糊神经网络(FNN)的赤潮预警预测研究

为研究各种理化因子与赤潮藻类浓度间的非线性对应规律和有效预测赤潮藻类浓度,构建了基于BP 算法的一个四层模糊神经网络模型。将模糊神经网络(FNN)技术引入赤潮预测研究,并与普通 BP 网络、RBF 网络的结果作比较,结果表明,该模型能够较好地反演出各种理化因子与夜光藻密度的非线性对应变化规律,有更好的预测功能。     

气候变化对中国大雾的影响

1 Introduction The global environmental problem caused by climatic warming has attracted increasing attention of the scientific communities, the public and governments of various countries. The mean temperature of the recent decade is the highest of the p…     

分析云南地震资料给出的近震震级ML和面波震级Ms

云南省区域数字地震遥测台网自1999年建成以来,记录了大量地震波形资料,从2000年1月至2006年2月,云南省及邻区共发生ML≥4.0地震168次,对这些地震的震级重新进行了测定,结果表明,对于云南省的区域地震,近震的体波震级ML和面波震级MS之间不满足昆明地震台网多年使用的MS=1.13ML-1.08这一换算公式,且发现ML也不一定大于MS。     

考虑双向水平地震作用的结构设计问题研究

分析了抗震设计中考虑双向水平地震作用的必要性,指出了研究双向地震作用的必要性,通过国内外规范相关条文的对比指出目前研究有待完善的关键问题和方向,结合近期研究成果对其中几个值得注意的问题提出建议。     

带深桩基础高层建筑结构的地震动输入问题

带深桩基础高层建筑结构的地震反应分析通常按刚性地基假定选择地震动输入,其合理性一直受到工程界关注。本文探讨了此类结构考虑桩-土-结构相互作用的整体有限元分析的地震激励施加、单元网格划分、积分步长确定、边界处理等问题,通过整体有限元分析模型和常规分析模型的算例分析对比,探讨了常规地震动输入方法的合理程度。结果表明,常规输入法总体偏于安全,是基本可行的,但可能低估结构底部几层的地震反应,应引起注意。     

大兴安岭地区古利库金(银)矿床成因探讨

古利库金(银)矿床的形成与早白垩世中晚期火山喷发活动及其所形成的火山穹隆构造有关,矿体定位于火山活动波及范围内,平均成矿温度220℃,平均成矿压力135×105Pa,成矿深度约500～600m,属冰长石-绢云母型浅成低温热液矿床,与国内外同类型矿床具有可比性.     

Feeding intensity and molecular prey identification of the mantis shrimp,Oratosquilla oratoria (De Haan, 1844), in the Tianjin coastal zone of Bohai Bay

Bohai Bay, a representative semi-enclosed bay of China, has been severely impacted in recent decades by rapid human development. Although the mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria plays an important role in the Bohai Bay ecosystem and fishery, its feeding ecology and the impact of habitat changes on its feeding habits are poorly known. In this study, we sought to identify its feeding strategy through the separation of stomach contents, and to describe its trophic ecology during maturation in the Tianjin coastal zone of Bohai Bay by the DNA barcoding method using a fragment (about 690 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (CO I) gene. A total of 594 specimens were collected from March to July 2018, and 347 (58.42%) stomachs were found to have food remains. More than half of the O. oratoria individuals had poor feeding activity, and the degree of feeding of females was higher than that of males, but there was no significant difference in the visual fullness index and the fullness weight index (FWI) between sexes for each month. In addition, the feeding activity of O. oratoria was consistent across the months, suggesting in artificial breeding programs it is not worried too much about the accessional diet supplied to the female bloodstocks except maintaining their normal food. A total of 167 retrieved prey items yielded 187 readable sequences; 86.63% of these sequences could be assigned to the species level. Consequently, 25 different prey taxa covering all readable sequences were identified, showing O. oratoria is a generalist predator. In terms of percent composition by frequency of occurrences (%N), crustaceans and fishes accounted for the same and highest percentage (35.83%) in the mantis shrimp diet, followed by mollusks (24.59%) and the remaining marine organisms (3.73%) including Polychaeta (2.67%), Sagittoidea (0.53%), and Chromadorea (0.53%). The result shows the benthic fish Oxudercidae (family) appears to be an especially important food supply for O. oratoria during maturation. The degree of cannibalism decreased with an increase in diet species and the frequencies of cannibalism in this study was noticeably higher than that in previous studies, suggesting that cannibalism may be a significant feeding strategy in the mantis shrimp O. oratoria in the Tianjin coastal zone of Bohai Bay, and because of the frequently cannibalistic behavior, the high stocking density of broodstocks should be avoided.