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71.
Esther Salazar Dorit Hammerling Xia Wang Bruno Sansó Andrew O. Finley Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69
We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States. 相似文献
72.
73.
Jui Le Loh Fredolin Tangang Liew Juneng David Hein Dong-In Lee 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):191-208
This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of regional moisture convergences in the region. 相似文献
74.
75.
西准噶尔玛依勒地区枕状玄武岩年代学、地球化学及岩石成因 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
通过对造山带内洋岛玄武岩的时代及地球化学性质研究,不仅可以进行古海山/大洋高原的识别,而且还可以进行古洋盆演化及古构造格局恢复。笔者等最新在西准噶尔玛依勒山北侧识别出一套枕状玄武岩,其与火山碎屑岩、硅质岩共生。枕状玄武岩斜长石微晶普遍发育中空骸晶结构,是在水下熔岩急剧萃冷条件下迅速结晶的产物。通过LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年,获得枕状玄武岩206Pb/238U加权平均年龄为437.2±2.2Ma,该年龄的获得填补了志留纪碱性玄武岩的空白。岩石地球化学分析结果显示,玛依勒枕状玄武岩为碱性玄武岩系列,岩石具有中等Si O2(44.89%~47.81%),高Ti O2(3.28%~4.12%)及P2O5(0.50%~0.70%),低Mg O(3.49%~6.79%),轻、重稀土元素分异较为明显((La/Yb)N=5.5~7.3),无明显Eu异常(Eu/Eu*=0.96~1.06),相对富集Rb、Th、U,亏损Ba、K、Sr,没有明显Nb、Ta负异常,这些地球化学特征与洋岛玄武岩(OIB)极其相似。微量元素含量及反映源区性质的比值表明,枕状玄武岩来源于富集地幔源区,主要组成为尖晶石和石榴石二辉橄榄岩,并发生了5%±的部分熔融,其形成于大洋板内与地幔柱有关的海山/大洋岛屿环境。结合前人研究,认为西准噶尔乃至古亚洲洋在中古生代洋内俯冲的同时,大洋板内可能存在地幔柱活动。 相似文献
76.
V. B. Zalesny V. I. Agoshkov V. P. Shutyaev F. Le Dimet B. O. Ivchenko 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2016,52(4):431-442
Models and methods of the numerical modeling of ocean hydrodynamics dating back to the pioneering works of A.S. Sarkisyan are considered, with emphasis on the formulation of problems and algorithms of mathematical modeling and the four-dimensional variational assimilation of observational data. An algorithm is proposed for studying the sensitivity of the optimal solution to observational data errors in a seasurface temperature assimilation problem in order to retrieve heat fluxes on the surface. An example of a solution of the optimal problem of the World Ocean hydrodynamics with the assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity observations is offered. 相似文献
77.
Molybdenum Mass Fractions and Isotopic Compositions of International Geological Reference Materials
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Pei‐Pei Zhao Jie Li Le Zhang Zhi‐Bing Wang De‐Xin Kong Jin‐Long Ma Gang‐Jian Wei Ji‐Feng Xu 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(2):217-226
The double‐spike method with multi‐collector inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry was used to measure the Mo mass fractions and isotopic compositions of a set of geological reference materials including the mineral molybdenite, seawater, coral, as well as igneous and sedimentary rocks. The long‐term reproducibility of the Mo isotopic measurements, based on two‐year analyses of NIST SRM 3134 reference solutions and seawater samples, was ≤ 0.07‰ (two standard deviations, 2s, n = 167) for δ98/95Mo. Accuracy was evaluated by analyses of Atlantic seawater, which yielded a mean δ98/95Mo of 2.03 ± 0.06‰ (2s, n = 30, relative to NIST SRM 3134 = 0‰) and mass fraction of 0.0104 ± 0.0006 μg g?1 (2s, n = 30), which is indistinguishable from seawater samples taken world‐wide and measured in other laboratories. The comprehensive data set presented in this study serves as a reference for quality assurance and interlaboratory comparison of high‐precision Mo mass fractions and isotopic compositions. 相似文献
78.
Unraveling the Peruvian Phase of the Central Andes: stratigraphy,sedimentology and geochronology of the Salar de Atacama Basin (22°30–23°S), northern Chile
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The Salar de Atacama Basin holds important information regarding the tectonic activity, sedimentary environments and their variations in northern Chile during Cretaceous times. About 4000 m of high‐resolution stratigraphic columns of the Tonel, Purilactis and Barros Arana Formations reveal braided fluvial and alluvial facies, typical of arid to semi‐arid environments, interrupted by scarce intervals with evaporitic, aeolian and lacustrine sedimentation, displaying an overall coarsening‐upward trend. Clast‐count and point‐count data evidence the progressive erosion from Mesozoic volcanic rocks to Palaeozoic basement granitoids and deposits located around the Cordillera de Domeyko area, which is indicative of an unroofing process. The palaeocurrent data show that the source area was located to the west. The U/Pb detrital zircon geochronological data give maximum depositional ages of 149 Ma for the base of the Tonel Formation (Agua Salada Member), and 107 Ma for its middle member (La Escalera Member); 79 Ma for the lower Purilactis Formation (Limón Verde Member), and 73 Ma for the Barros Arana Formation. The sources of these zircons were located mainly to the west, and comprised from the Coastal Cordillera to the Precordillera. The ages and pulses record the tectonic activity during the Peruvian Phase, which can be split into two large events; an early phase, around 107 Ma, showing uplift of the Coastal Cordillera area, and a late phase around 79 Ma indicating an eastward jump of the deformation front to the Cordillera de Domeyko area. The lack of internal deformation and the thicknesses measured suggest that deposition of the units occurred in the foredeep zone of an eastward‐verging basin. This sedimentation would have ended with the K‐T phase, recognized in most of northern Chile. 相似文献
79.
Activated sludge acclimation for toluene and DEHP degradation in a two-phase partitioning bioreactor
I. Béchohra J. B. Le Menn A. Couvert A. Amrane 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2016,13(8):1883-1890
The effect of activated sludge acclimation on the biodegradation of toluene in the presence of a biodegradable non-aqueous phase liquid, di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), in a two-phase partitioning bioreactor was characterized. The influence of the presence of DEHP, at a ratio of 0.1 % (volume ratio), and of the acclimation of activated sludge (AS) on the biodegradation of hydrophobic VOC was studied. AS was acclimated to both toluene and DEHP simultaneously. Using acclimated cells, 73 and 96 % improvement of the mean biodegradation rates was recorded for toluene and the organic solvent (DEHP), respectively, if compared to the values recorded in the absence of acclimation, during tests performed in Erlenmeyer flasks. Degradation rates were further improved by the use of acclimated AS in a reactor with a large head space; degradation yields for toluene and DEHP were above 99 and 89 %, respectively. 相似文献
80.