The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc “flux adjustment” at the ocean surface to bring model simulations close to observations of the present-day climate. We group flux-adjusted and non-flux-adjusted models separately and examine the behavior of each class. When averaged over all of the flux-adjusted model simulations, near-surface air temperature falls within 2?K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to ～6?K in extensive ocean areas. Flux adjustments are not directly applied over land, and near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which systematically underestimates (by ～5?K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude) over land. We use the temperature difference between July and January to measure seasonal cycle amplitude. Zonal means of this quantity from the individual flux-adjusted models form a fairly tight cluster (all within ～30% of the mean) centered on the observed values. The non-flux-adjusted models perform nearly as well at most latitudes. In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, however, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by ～5?K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. Also, over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. Elsewhere, differences between the two classes of models are less obvious. At no latitude is the zonal mean difference between averages over the two classes of models greater than the standard deviation over models. The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. To test this possible connection, we compare seasonal cycle amplitude with equilibrium warming under doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide for the models in our data base. A small but positive correlation exists between these two quantities. This result is predicted by a simple conceptual model of the climate system, and it is consistent with other modeling experience, which indicates that the seasonal cycle depends only weakly on climate sensitivity.     

An Analysis of the Recent Severe Storm Surge Disaster Events in China

The economic loss caused by the storm surgedisasters is much higher than that caused by anyother marine disaster in China, the loss from the severestorm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics showthat there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeastcoast of China since 1990, three of which,occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused themost severe damage. The direct economic lossesdue to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan(RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD,respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year duringthe 1989–1991 period. This paper makes a comparativeanalysis of the damage caused by the three events andpresents an overview of progress of precautions againststorm surge disaster in China. The suggestedcounter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe stormsurge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raisethe whole society awareness of precaution against severestorm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan forbuilding sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the availablewarning and disaster relief command system; (4)Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigatethe loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event.     

Reversal sequence in a multiple scale dynamo mechanism

We investigate the temporal evolution of the magnetic dipole field intensity of the Earth through a multiscale dynamo mechanism. On a large range of spatio-temporal scales, the helical motions of the fluid flow are given by a schematic model of a fully developed turbulence. The system construction is symmetric with respect to left-handed and right-handed cyclones. The multiscale cyclonic turbulence coupled with a differential rotation (schematic ω dynamo) or alone (schematic ² dynamo) is the ingredient of the loop through which poloidal and toroidal fields are built from one another. Two kinds of reaction of the magnetic field on the flow are considered: the presence of a magnetic field first favours a larger-scale organization of the flow, and, second, impedes this flow by the effect of growing Lorentz forces. We obtain the general features of the geomagnetic field intensity observed over geological times and describe a general mechanism for reversals, excursions and secular variation. The mechanism happens to keep a memory during the chrons and loose it during the events (excursions and inversions).     

Simulation of extensive air showers at ultra-high energy using the CORSIKA Monte Carlo code

Extensive simulations have been carried out with CORSIKA version 5.62 to investigate the general properties of giant cosmic air shower in the energy range 1–100 EeV. The comparison between protons, heavy nuclei and γ initiated showers exhibits unexpected and interesting features. The apparent muon electron ratio at great distances (1.5 km from axis) tends to be comparable at ultra-high energy in both photon-induced cascades and hadronic cascades (compensation between the enhancement versus energy of photo-production cross-section and of the decrease of both pair production cross-section and the bremsstrahlung cross-section, with Landau–Pomeranchuk–Migdal effect); for proton and nuclei primaries, a correlation with lateral electron profile suggests a new energy estimator, in complement to electrons size or density at 600 m, suitable for the determination of the total primary energy spectrum. Another tendency is the local contrast in the abundance of positive and negative muons (with a possible ellipticity in the lateral muon distribution) induced by the geomagnetic field, especially visible for some azimuthal and zenith angles. These distortions are more intense for heavy primaries; they can be exploited on the most favorable horizontal axis or areas, for the discrimination between nuclei and protons.     

Electrical conductivity and crustal structure beneath the central Hellenides around the Gulf of Corinth (Greece) and their relationship with the seismotectonics

A deep magnetotelluric sounding (MTS) investigation in the western part of the Gulf of Corinth has revealed a complex electrical image of the crustal structure. The geotectonic structure of the Parnassos unit and the Transition zone in the central Hellenides, overthrusting the Pindos zone both towards the west and towards the south, has been clearly identified by its higher resistivity and its intrinsic anisotropy related to the N–S strike of the Hellenides range. Subsequent N–S extension of the Gulf introduced another heterogeneous anisotropy characteristic that corresponds to E–W-trending normal faults on both sides of the Gulf. The 2-D modelling of the MTS results reveals the existence of a relatively conductive layer about 4 km thick at a depth greater than 10 km in the middle crust. It corresponds to a ductile detachment zone suggested by microseismic and seismic studies ( King et al . 1985 ; Rigo et al . 1996 ; Bernard et al . 1997a ). It may be attributed to the phyllite series lying between the allochthonous Hellenic nappes and the autochthonous Plattenkalk basement. Towards the east, under the Pangalos peninsula, approaching the internal Hellenides, the detachment zone could root deeply into the lower crust.
Some strong local electrical anomalies are observed, reaching the conductive layer in the middle crust, such as that under the Mamousia fault and under the front of the overthrust of the Transition zone on the Pindos zone. Other anomalies affect only the shallower zones such as that beneath the Helike fault and in the Psaromita peninsula. These shallower anomalies provide complementary information to the study of spatial and temporal variations of the seismic anisotropy in relation to the short- and long-term tectonic activity of the Gulf ( Bouin et al . 1996 ; Gamar et al . 1999 ).     

Pollen analysis of marine sediments off the Washington coast

Pollen diagrams of postglacial sediments from the continental terrace off the Washington coast reveal trends similar to those observed in continental sections of postglacial age from the Pacific Northwest and appear sufficient for correlation with terrestrial deposits. The absolute pollen frequency (APF) varies from 3000 to 15000 grains/g. Maximum number of pollen grains (500–800/cm²/year) accumulated during the Hypsithermal.     

集聚经济影响城市经济增长的理论基础与实证研究:文献述评与展望

集聚经济理论自诞生之日起便与城市经济增长存在着本源联系。论文系统梳理集聚经济理论的起源与发展,归纳集聚经济阐释城市空间形成与发展的核心思想,明确集聚经济与城市经济增长之间是具有本源联系的。进一步回顾集聚经济影响城市经济增长的程度与机制,发现以人口密度等指标为代表的集聚经济能够显著促进城市经济的增长,可从“宏观过程”与“微观过程”两大视角探寻城市集聚经济影响城市经济增长的解释机制。这一工作不仅是以往集聚经济与城市经济增长相关文献回顾的一个延续,也为后续集聚经济影响中国城市经济增长的实证研究提供了一个参照。     

A H2O-in-zircon perspective on the heterogeneous water content of crust-derived magmas in southern Tibet

Geophysical and geochemical evidence revealed that certain amounts of water are stored in the Earth's interior,and its distribution exhibits temporal and spatia...