Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.     

Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data

Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10?×?10?km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses.     

Paleolimnology of McNearney lake: an acidic lake in northern Michigan

McNearney Lake is an acidic (pH=4.4) lake in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan with low acid neutralizing capacity (ANC=-38 eq L^-1) and high SO _inf4 ^sup2- and aluminium concentrations. Oligotrophy is indicated by high Secchi transparency and by low chlorophyll a, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen concentrations. The lake water is currently acidic because base cations are supplied to the lake water at a low rate and because SO _inf4 ^sup2- from atmospheric deposition was not appreciably retained by the lake sediments or watershed and was present in the water column.This interdisciplinary paleolimnological study indicates that McNearney Lake is naturally acidic and has been so since at least 4000 years B.P., as determined from inferred-pH techniques based on contemporary diatom-pH relationships. Predicted pH values ranged from 4.7 to 5.0 over the 4000-year stratigraphy. Considerable shifts in species composition and abundance were observed in diatom stratigraphy, but present-day distributions indicate that all abundant taxa most frequently occur under acidic conditions, suggesting that factors other than pH are responsible for the shifts. The diatom-inferred pH technique as applied to McNearney Lake has too large an uncertainly and is not sensitive enough to determine the subtle recent changes in lakewater pH expected from changes in atmospheric deposition because: (1) McNearney Lake has the lowest pH in the contemporary diatom data set in the region and confidence intervals for pH predictions increase at the extremes of regressions; (2) other factors in addition to pH may be responsible for the diatom species distribution in the lake and in the entire northern Great Lakes region; (3) McNearney Lake has a well-buffered pH as a consequence of its low pH and high aluminium concentrations and is not expected to exhibit a large pH change as a result of changes in atmospheric deposition; and (4) atmospheric deposition in the region is modest and would not cause a pH shift large enough to be discernable in McNearney Lake.Elevated atmospheric deposition is indicated in recent sediments by Pb, V, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon accumulation rates and to a lesser extent by those of Cu and Zn; however, these accumulation rates are substantially lower than those observed for acidified lakes in the northeastern United States. Although atmospheric loadings of materials associated with fossil fuel combustion have recently increased to McNearney Lake and apparently are continuing, the present study of the diatom subfossil record does not indicate a distinct, recent acidification (pH decrease).Order of the first two authors is alphabetical     

Stable isotopes and cellulase activity as evidence for detritus as a food source for juvenile Gulf menhaden

Menhaden are one of the most abundant components of fish communities in Gulf and Atlantic estuaries. Juvenile menhaden have been reported to have zooplankton, phytoplankton, andSpartina-derived detritus in their guts. However, there has been disagreement over the importance of the detritus as a food source. We show, using physiological and stable isotope evidence, that detritus can be used by juvenile Gulf menhaden. Their diet is very roughly 30% detritus- and 70% plankton-based.     

The effects of tributyltin within aThalassia seagrass ecosystem

Flow-through seagrass core microcosms were used to examine responses of species and processes to a logarithmic gradient of dosing with¹⁴C-labeled tributyltin-chloride (TBT-CI). Experiments involved delivery of TBT-CI to the water column of replicate cores of a treatment (n=16) once per week; one-half of the cores were sacrificed after 3 wk of dosing, the others were dosed for 6 wk. Initial water column concentrations for the three treatments averaged 0.205, 2.23, and 22.21 μg I^?1, expressed as the TBT⁺ cation, but these concentrations dropped rapidly. Retained¹⁴C tracer, an estimate of total organotin species, was distributed to sediments, plants, and other biological tissues, all of whose tracer concentrations increased with time. Measures to indicate responses of both autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms were made; in general, treatment effects were demonstrable statistically only at the highest dose level. Accumulation of chlorophyll and biomass on glass slides was highest when suspended for the entire experiment in the water of the highest treatment; this unexpected result was perhaps an indirect effect related to reduced grazing activity in the microcosms. The highest dose of TBT-CI resulted in virtual population mortality of a few macrobenthic species and decreased loss of plant material in litter bags, both demonstrated within the first 3 wk of dosing. Reduced litter loss was coincident with mortality of an amphipod (Cymadusa compta) capable of shredding plant material, and a causal relation between the two effects is plausible. Thus, if concentrated to similar levels in aThalassia bed, TBT⁺ may have direct species-level effects and process-level effects, potentially causing ecosystem change via disruption of a species-process linkage influential in seagrass detrital food web dynamics.     

Modeling Nonprofit Resilience in Long-Term Recovery in Christchurch,New Zealand

Following the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, many nonprofit organizations changed or expanded services to address emergent or compounded risks. This research is based on interviews with thirty local community nonprofit managers and discussions with five staff focus groups conducted in 2014. Preexisting nonprofits with flexible organizational structures and emergent nonprofits succeeded in providing services during the emergency response and early recovery phases; nonprofits contracted with the government were better suited for long-term recovery. Shared resources among nonprofit agency connections contributed to successful transitions from response to recovery. Similar organizational resilience factors might occur in other major cities following disasters.