The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Given predictions of increased intensity and frequency of heat waves, it is important to study the effect of high temperatures on human mortality and morbidity. Many studies focus on heat wave-related mortality; however, heat-related morbidity is often overlooked. The goals of this study are to examine the historical observed relationship between temperature and morbidity (illness), and explore the extent to which observed historical relationships could be used to generate future projections of morbidity under climate change. We collected meteorological, air pollution, and hospital admissions data in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the years 1989–2005, and employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to quantify the relationship between morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions) and high temperatures with adjustment for the effects of potential confounders. We also estimated temperature threshold values for different causes of hospital admissions and then quantified the associated percent increase of admissions per degree above the threshold. Finally, the future impact of higher temperatures on admissions for the years 2059–2075 was examined. Our results show that five causes of admission (endocrine, genitourinary, renal, accidental, and self-harm) and three age groups (15–64, 75–84, >85 years) were affected by high temperatures. Future projections indicate a larger number of days above the current temperature threshold leading to an increase in admissions. Our results indicate that climate change may increase heat-related hospital admissions in the US urban mid-West and that health systems should include heat wave planning.     

Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data

Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10?×?10?km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses.     

Fisheries law enforcement—A survey of the economic literature

The paper reviews and summarises the literature on regulatory enforcement in fisheries. The focus is on the theoretical literature. First, some of the main contributions from the general economic literature of law enforcement are presented, along with extensions that are considered relevant to the study of fisheries law enforcement. Second, a review of the economic literature of law enforcement applied to the study of fisheries is provided. Finally, the paper presents gaps in the fisheries economics literature on regulatory enforcement and offers some possibilities for future work.     

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

Spectra® fishing twine entanglement of a bottlenose dolphin: A case study and experimental modeling

We report here the first documented case of a cetacean fatality from entanglement in recreational Spectra® fishing twine. Spectra® twine is a relatively new microfilament braided twine that is marketed to replace nylon monofilament twine in rod and reel fisheries. Following the case of this entangled bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), we conducted tests with Spectra® and comparable monofilament twines on Tursiops tissue from stranded animals to compare the abrasion properties of the twines. We found that Spectra® twine was significantly more abrasive on bottlenose dolphin fluke tissue than a similar strength and diameter monofilament. With the same forces applied, the Spectra® twine cut deeper than the monofilament, exhibiting a linear relationship with force applied where the monofilament appeared to reach a maximum depth of penetration of approximately 2 mm. These tests may explain why this bottlenose dolphin was so severely debilitated from carrying a relatively light load of twine over a short period of time (20 days). Future public and corporate outreach will be essential to minimize the effect that this increasingly popular fishing twine will have on non-target species.     

Energy-based method for identifying vulnerable macro-elements in historic masonry churches

Seismic vulnerability of historic churches is a well known issue in earthquake engineering. The need of preserving these buildings encourages the development of reliable numerical methods to assess their seismic behavior. In this paper a new approach is presented, based on evaluating damage pattern obtained by non-linear dynamic analysis and the energy dissipated by each macro-element during earthquakes. A “hierarchy of dissipated energy” concept emerges to give a scale of vulnerability of the parts that compose a church. By modifying masonry mechanical parameters or geometric features, the crack pattern and amount of energy dissipation density of each element is varied and calibrated to achieve the desired hierarchy. The structural designer can therefore estimate the effectiveness of strengthening devices by checking reduction and possibly migration of dissipated energy density from weaker structural elements to more resistant ones, together with a preferable damage pattern. The proposed strategy is applied to a single nave church, hit by the Emilia Romagna earthquake (Italy, 2012), first defining a scale of vulnerability of the macro-elements and then proposing a rehabilitation strategy, which improves the seismic response in terms of damages and dissipated energy. The strong vulnerability of the main dome vault is shown, due to the combination of its high dissipated energy density with its intrinsic weakness. Strengthening techniques are aimed to reduce the amount of dissipated energy of vulnerable macro-elements and to attenuate out-of-plane mechanisms.     

Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning

Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate a plan’s performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina.     

The use of tracers to assess drill-mud penetration depth into sandstone cores during deep drilling: method development and application

For the utilization of deep saline aquifers in the frame of geotechnical use, such as geological sequestration of CO₂, H₂ or energy storage, a baseline characterization of pristine reservoir rock cores is required to monitor changes in the indigenous microbial communities and pore fluids, and to study alterations in rock characteristics resulting from interaction with geological storage technologies. However, drilling procedures and technical fluids, particularly drill mud, are sources of core contamination. To measure the penetration of drill mud into the cores, three tracers (fluorescein, microspheres, and 4′,6-diamidino-2-phenylindole stained bacteria) were tested under laboratory conditions. The flow of drill mud into core samples was induced by applying uniaxial pressure differentials to the core, and the penetration depth was microscopically determined for each tracer. Fluorescein was extracted from the rock samples and quantified fluorometrically. The results indicate that all tested tracers are suitable for tracking drill-mud penetration. The actual penetration depth seems to be related to differences in mineral composition and texture as well as microfractures. Among all tested tracers, fluorescein labelling is the simplest, cheapest and most accurate method for analyzing the contamination of rock cores by technical fluids. The application of this tracer was successfully applied during two deep drilling campaigns at the CO₂ storage pilot site in Ketzin, Germany. The results highlight that the use of tracers is indispensable to ensure the quality of core samples for microbiological and biogeochemical analysis.