Combination of Dependent Realizations Within the Gradual Deformation Method

Gradual deformation is a parameterization method that reduces considerably the unknown parameter space of stochastic models. This method can be used in an iterative optimization procedure for constraining stochastic simulations to data that are complex, nonanalytical functions of the simulated variables. This method is based on the fact that linear combinations of multi-Gaussian random functions remain multi-Gaussian random functions. During the past few years, we developed the gradual deformation method by combining independent realizations. This paper investigates another alternative: the combination of dependent realizations. One of our motivations for combining dependent realizations was to improve the numerical stability of the gradual deformation method. Because of limitations both in the size of simulation grids and in the precision of simulation algorithms, numerical realizations of a stochastic model are never perfectly independent. It was shown that the accumulation of very small dependence between realizations might result in significant structural drift from the initial stochastic model. From the combination of random functions whose covariance and cross-covariance are proportional to each other, we derived a new formulation of the gradual deformation method that can explicitly take into account the numerical dependence between realizations. This new formulation allows us to reduce the structural deterioration during the iterative optimization. The problem of combining dependent realizations also arises when deforming conditional realizations of a stochastic model. As opposed to the combination of independent realizations, combining conditional realizations avoids the additional conditioning step during the optimization process. However, this procedure is limited to global deformations with fixed structural parameters.     

冬季审核地面气象资料的一些注意事项

对冬季较少出现的天气现象及其引伸的现象的资料处理情况进行概括,有助于台站处理审核原始资料。     

人机交互策略在GIS软件用户界面设计中的研究

随着计算机技术的不断进步,用户界面设计---有效的人机交互策略变得更加重要。地理信息系统的发展要求其系统软件的设计者与开发者设计开发出更加人性化的用户界面,以提高不同领域、不同层次软件使用者的满意度。     

Static load tests of driven concrete piles under CFRP confinement

ABSTRACT

This paper describes compressive static load tests of concrete driven piles confined by Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP). The tested piles include one concrete pipe pile and one concrete rectangular pile which are all partially confined by CFRP, and other two piles with the same dimensions without CFRP application. Tests program was performed to obtain the behaviours of these composite piles. Four Static Loading Tests (SLTs) were conducted and the results shown that those two types of composite pile demonstrate less vertical displacement with the same loading of traditional concrete piles. Furthermore, the traditional methods of Load-settlement (Q-s) curves, Settlement-lg (Load) (s-lgQ) curves and Settlement-lg (Time) curves are analysed. Due to un-plunging condition, the interpretation methods of Davisson’s, DeBeers, Double-Tangent as well as Chin’s methods are demonstrated for the ultimate bearing capacity of these four piles. It is concluded that the CFRP confinement increased the ultimate bearing capacity and this composite material can be perfectly applied in geotechnical condition.     

2004年夏季广州市一次罕见高温天气过程

对广州市2004年6月27日-7月3日出现的一次罕见高温天气过程及历史上的高温天气进行分析,结果表明：(1)广州出现高温的概率是在增加的,且长时间持续高温发生概率在20世纪80年代以后显著增大;(2)广州历史上38℃及以上的4次高温过程都是由副热带高压和台风外围环流共同影响形成的;(3)粤北南岭山脉“焚风效应”和城市“热岛效应”对广州市2004年6月27日～7月3日出现的罕见高温天气过程也起一定的增幅作用。     

电子地图中多尺度地图数据显示的研究

将计算机三维模型简化中的LOD思想引入到电子地图的组织和显示中,提出了同一比例尺数字地图不同详细程度的分层显示方法和不同比例尺数字地图嵌套显示方法,实现了电子地图的多级缩放。     

Thermal regimes and degradation modes of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway

Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is widespread, thin, and thermally unstable. Under a warming climate during the past few decades, it has been degrading extensively with generally rising ground temperatures, the deepening of the maximum summer thaw, and with lessening of the winter frost penetration. The permafrost has degraded downward, upward and laterally. Permafrost has thinned or, in some areas, has totally disappeared. The modes of permafrost degradation have great significance in geocryology, in cold regions engineering and in cold regions environmental management. Permafrost in the interior of the QTP is well represented along the Qing-hai-Tibet Highway (QTH), which crosses the Plateau through north to south and traverses 560 km of permafrost-impacted ground. Horizontally, the degradation of permafrost occurs more visibly in the sporadic permafrost zone in the vicinity of the lower limit of permafrost (LLP), along the margins of taliks, and around permafrost islands. Downward degradation develops when the maximum depth of seasonal thaw exceeds the maximum depth of seasonal frost, and it generally results in the formation of a layered talik disconnecting the permafrost from the seasonal frost layer. The downward degrada- tion is divided into four stages: 1) initial degradation, 2) accelerated degradation, 3) layered talik and 4) finally the conversion of permafrost to seasonally frozen ground (SFG). The upward degradation occurs when the geothermal gradient in permafrost drops to less than the geothermal gradients in the underlying thawed soil layers. Three types of permafrost temperature curves (stable, degrading, and phase-changing transitory permafrost) illustrate these modes. Although strong differentiations in local conditions and permafrost types exist, the various combinations of the three degradation modes will ultimately transform permafrost into SFG. Along the QTH, the downward degradation has been proceeding at annual rates of 6 to 25 cm, upward degradation at 12 to 30 cm, and lateral degradation in the sporadic permafrost zone at 62 to 94 cm during the last quarter century. These rates exceed the 4 cm per year for the past 20 years reported for the discontinuous permafrost zone in subarctic Alaska, the 3 to 7 cm per year reported in Mongolia, and that of the thaw-stable permafrost in subarctic Yakutia and Arctic Alaska.     

Ｌ波段高空气象探测系统应用技术分析

针对当前气象信息业务人员紧张,保障人员工作任务繁重的现状,研发了基于SqlServer数据库的气象信息监控报警平台。本文介绍了该系统的设计思路、框架结构及数据流程,并探讨了实现过程中一些关键问题的解决方案。     

基于自适应四叉树分割的遥感图像压缩算法

遥感图像具有不同于一般图像的特点,针对遥感图像对压缩算法的特殊要求,提出了自适应四叉树分割算法实现图像的分块,以各像块的均值近似表示该像块的灰度值,从而以尺量少的数值获得对原始图像的最佳逼近,再对辐近误差进行自适应分割和基于像块方差的自适应量化,最后对各分量进行Huffman编码.实验表明,本算法能表现出良好的实用性能,比JPEG算法更适用于遥感图像的压缩.     

一次强飑线的中分析

本文对一次强飑线过程进行分析,指出高空“阶梯槽”的出现是这次飑线过程大尺度环流背景的重要特征。在此背景下,苏北和山东广大地区,有一支西南低空急流输送水汽和热量,大气层结趋于不稳定,为鼬线发展提供了不稳定能量,而高空疏散槽为不稳定能释放的一种触发机构。在飑线过境前,大气的层结在800毫巴附近的强下沉逆温,对不稳定能的储存和积累有重要意义。 这次飑线发展如此之强,除一般所说的一些条件之外,同飑线内部对流云体的合并以及与其它天气系统的碰头有密切关系;另外,中低空之间的强垂直风切变也有特殊作用。