强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

强对流天气预报业务包括监测、分析、预报、预警和检验等方面。对流初生识别、对流系统强度识别和对流天气类型识别等监测技术取得新进展,综合多源资料的监测技术已应用于中国气象局中央气象台业务。对流系统的触发、发展和维持机制等获得了新认识,我国不同类型强对流天气及其环境条件统计气候特征、分析规范及相应业务产品等为业务预报提供了必要基础和技术支撑。光流法、多尺度追踪技术以及应用模糊逻辑方法的临近预报技术等有明显进展,融合短时预报技术得到广泛应用,对流可分辨高分辨率数值 (集合) 预报及其后处理产品预报试验取得了显著成效,基于数值 (集合) 预报应用模糊逻辑方法的分类强对流天气短期预报技术为业务预报提供了技术支撑。强对流天气综合监测和多尺度自适应临近预报技术、多尺度分析技术以及融合短时预报技术、发展并应用模糊逻辑等方法的、基于高分辨率数值 (集合) 模式的区分不同强度等级和极端性的分类强对流天气精细化 (概率) 预报技术等是未来发展的主要方向。     

On some applications of invariant manifolds

Taking transfer orbits of a collinear libration point probe, a lunar probe and an interplanetary probe as examples, some applications of stable and unstable invariant manifolds of the restricted three-body problem are discussed. Research shows that transfer energy is not necessarily conserved when invariant manifolds are used. For the cases in which the transfer energy is conserved, the cost is a much longer transfer time.     

Associations of decimetric type Ⅲ bursts with coronal mass ejections and Hα flares

We present a statistical study of decimetric type Ⅲ radio bursts,coronal mass ejections(CMEs),and Hα flares observed in the period from July 2000 to March2005.In total,we investigated 395 decimetric type Ⅲ radio burst events,21% of which showed apparent correlation to CMEs that were associated with Hα flares.We noticed that the Hα flares which were strongly associated with CMEs were gradual events,and82% of them took place before CMEs appeared in the field of view of LASCO C2;that most of the CME-associated radio bursts started in the frequency range around750 MHz with a frequency drifting rate of several hundred MHz s-1,of which both positive and negative ones were recognized; and that the correlation of type Ⅲ radio bursts to CMEs without associated flares is fairly vague,less than 9%.     

Emulating the OPAL equation of state

The equation of state for the structure of the Sun and stars has to be precise to allow comparisons with observations, i.e., helioseismic inversions of thermodynamic quantities. Among the two of the most popular formalisms are (1) the OPAL equation of state developed at Livermore and (2) the Mihalas-Hummer-Däppen (MHD) equation of state. While OPAL has a solid theoretical foundation, and matches the observational data better, the MHD formalism is more intuitive, easy to realize, and has the possibility of adjustable parameters. Furthermore, it an open-source product in contrast to the proprietary OPAL. Recently a version of MHD has been obtained by including the so-called “Plank-Larkin partition function” and by adding scattering-state terms. The resulting formalism matches OPAL rather well. Here, we report on the next logical step, the implementation of this MHD upgrade into the simple and popular CEFF equation of state. Such an implementation will make it a flexible and convenient tool, allowing an approximative on-line implementation of OPAL in solar and stellar models.     

北太平洋海表面高度(SSH) 与风应力变化的关系

利用1958-2008年的北太平洋海表面高度和风应力资料,并与ENSO和PDO指数进行相关分析.结果发现,风应力及其经向分量主要通过季节振动影响海表面高度(SSH)的年周期变化,纬向风应力主要通过多年振动影响SSH的ENSO和PDO周期.纬向风应力和SSH均以黑潮延伸体主轴为界,两侧呈现出相反的升降趋势,SSH为北降南升,纬向风应力南降北升.风应力和SSH升降趋势相同,均表现为“上升—下降—上升”的变化特征.在地形变化剧烈、等深线南北分布的海区,西风增强会导致SSH升高,且西侧升高较为明显.北风增强将导致北太平洋西岸SSH升高,东岸SSH降低.     

A dual site study of the rainwater chemistry within the Western Pacific region

The two-year (1999–2000) rainwater chemistry at two monitoring sites in nearby coastal areas [Taiwan (TW) and Hong Kong (HK)] within the Western Pacific region has been studied. The volume weighted average pH values for the entire sampling period in TW and HK were 4.6 and 4.2, respectively. Sea salt Na⁺ and Cl⁻ were the most abundant species in the TW samples but and H⁺ were the most abundant in the HK samples. The sea salt and concentrations at TW were higher than those at HK both in the cold and warm seasons. Chloride depletion was minimal in the rainwater samples at both sites. Non seasalt- was associated with . Under the influence of the East Asian Winter Monsoon, the back-trajectory studies revealed that elevated anthropogenic species concentrations were associated with trajectories (1) very near to the continental boundary layer of Mainland China; or (2) along the coastline of Eastern China where large cities/industrial areas are located or (3) passing through the region of stagnant air over Northern/Eastern China. The lowest anthropogenic and crustal species concentrations measured in HK are associated with the summer monsoon and are attributed not only to the clean marine air masses but also to the relatively low SO₂, NO _x and NH₃ emissions from the South/ South East Asian countries, as well as infrequent biomass burning activities and wet scavenging at sources during the summer months. Approaching tropical cyclones led to the lowest pH values (4.2 in TW and 3.8 in HK) amongst the other weather categories. The findings here have been compared with other studies within East Asia and elsewhere.     

A trophic model for the Danshuei River Estuary, a hypoxic estuary in northern Taiwan

The estuary of the Danshuei River, a hypoxic subtropical estuary, receives a high rate of untreated sewage effluent. The Ecopath with Ecosim software system was used to construct a mass-balanced trophic model for the estuary, and network analysis was used to characterize the structure and matter flow in the food web. The estuary model was comprised of 16 compartments, and the trophic levels varied from 1.0 for primary producers and detritus to 3.0 for carnivorous and piscivorous fishes. The large organic nutrient loading from the upper reaches has resulted in detritivory being more important than herbivory in the food web. The food-chain length of the estuary was relatively short when compared with other tropical/subtropical coastal systems. The shortness of food-chain length in the estuary could be attributed to the low biomass of the top predators. Consequently, the trophic efficiencies declined sharply for higher trophic levels due to low fractions of flows to the top predators and then high fractions to detritus. The low biomass of the top predators in the estuary was likely subject to over-exploitation and/or hypoxic water. Summation of individual rate measurements for primary production and respiration yielded an estimate of −1791 g WW m⁻² year⁻¹, or −95 g C m⁻² year⁻¹, suggesting a heterotrophic ecosystem, which implies that more organic matter was consumed than was produced in the estuary.