基于时间平均的海底沉积物声速预测

在海底沉积物声速预测中,把不同海域的物理性质完全不同的沉积物试验数据拟合出一个统一的方程存在不足,不但数据过于离散,而且方程中参量的物理意义不明确。借鉴Wyllie等建立的时间平均方程的思路,基于声传播过程中路程、时间和声速之间的基本关系,引入了表征固液双相之间的堆垒方式和耦合状态对声传播路径影响的耦合系数,建立了沉积物声速预测模型。将鹿回头外海、南海南部和北部的沉积物测量数据进行线性回归分析,分别得出适用于不同海域的沉积物声速预测模型,拟合的复相关系数较大,偏差较小,证明该模型能够反映声速随孔隙度的变化规律,且各参数物理意义明确,具有一定的研究和理论探索意义。     

Influence of sea ice and sea surface temperature on the abundance of Antarctic krill in Area 48.2

In this paper we examine the relationship between Antarctic krill catch, sea ice concentration, and sea surface tempera- ture （SST）. Data on the Antarctic krill catch from 2003 to 2010 in CCAMLR Area 48.2 were combined with sea ice and SST data. Results showed that krill fishing in Area 48.2 took place from February to August each year but the catch was concentrated from March to July, with production during this period accounting for about 99.3% of the annual catch. Regression analysis showed that the catch per unit effort （CPUE） was clearly related to sea ice concentration and SST intervals. CPUE was negatively correlated with the area of sea ice among years （R2=0.64）, and the correlation was strongest （R2=0.71） when sea ice concentration was greater than 90%. Over the months the CPUE initially increased, then decreased as the area of sea ice increased. The relationship was strongest （R2=0.88） when the concentration of sea ice was 60%--70%. There was no negative correlation among years between CPUE and the ice-free area when S ST was between -2 ℃ and 3 ℃ （R2=0.21）, but there was a significant negative correlation when SST was between 1 ℃ and 2℃ （R2=0.82）. Over the months, CPUE initially increased then decreased with increasing sea ice-free area, and the relationship was strongest （R2=0.94） when SST was between 0℃and 1 ℃. This study shows that sea ice concentra- tion and SST have significant effects on the abundance of krill in Area 48.2, and the findings have practical significance for the use and conservation of Antarctic krill resources.     

地磁加卸载响应比方法最佳阈值研究

地磁加卸载响应比方法(LURR)是从测震学中移植过来的、用于地震中期分析预测的一种地磁学方法。笔者应用红山地震台地磁数字化观测数据进行了地磁加卸载响应比的计算分析,经过统计得出在阈值选择为3.0时对地震进行预测的效果比较好,其与地震的对应概率为42%。同时,笔者还认为可能受限于方法本身及外界因素,地磁加卸载响应比方法在进行地震预测时,其虚报率及漏报率较高。     

山地森林采伐作业的环境成本定量研究

在森林采运作业的成本核算中,不仅要考虑采运作业的各项劳动消耗和物化劳动,还应合理考虑到森林采运作业的环境成本.以天然林择伐试验样地的跟踪调查数据为基础,从涵养水源价值、保持水土价值、固碳释氧价值3方面对南方丘陵山地不同强度采伐经营的环境成本进行定量研究.结果表明,弱度择伐环境成本较小,仅1.7 元/m~3,中度、强度择伐环境成本分别为弱度的5.1、12.2倍,极强度择伐的环境成本最大,达到25.3 元/m~3,是弱度择伐的16.2倍;皆伐由于收获量大,其单位采伐量环境成本为弱度择伐的14.9倍,低于极强度采伐.研究结果有助于人们对林业生产的效益有进一步的认识,也期待能对继续本领域的研究有参考价值.     

天然次生林考虑伐后环境损失的多目标决策评价

山地森林采伐应注重经济、生态和社会效益的有机结合已成为共识.通过选取纯收益、土壤持水价值变化量、凋落物持水价值变化量、土壤养分价值变化量、凋落物养分价值变化量、固碳价值变化量和制氧价值变化量等7个效益指标,运用多目标决策分析方法,定量分析天然次生林5种不同强度(弱度13.0%、中度29.1%、强度45.8%、极强度67.1%和皆伐)采伐作业10 a后的经济和生态效益评价值以及它们的综合效益评价值.结果表明:随着采伐强度的增大,经济效益评价值增大,而生态效益评价值则下降,皆伐的经济效益评价值最大,为0.300,而其生态效益评价值最小,为0.070;弱度择伐的经济效益评价值最小,为0.030,而生态效益最大,为0.670;中度择伐的综合效益评价值最大,为0.713,皆伐的综合效益评价值最小,为0.370.因此,类似试验条件的林区应推行低强度(弱度或中度)择伐经营方式,以实现天然次生林可持续经营.     

甘肃祁连山主动源重复探测项目建设及震源重复性分析

甘肃祁连山主动源重复探测激发源位于甘肃省张掖市祁连山西流水水库,2015年7月9日各系统开始正式运行,11月10日完成了为期40天的连续激发实验。观测资料处理结果表明,气枪震源具有良好的一致性和可重复性,整个观测系统能比较清晰地记录到震源激发的信号。祁连山主动源项目建设取得的结果可为主动源探测工作提供宝贵经验和科学借鉴,不断取得的观测数据为跟踪了解祁连山地区的深部结构时空变化提供了可能。     

Towards a 1 mGal accuracy and 1 min resolution altimetry gravity field

Over the past three decades, radar altimetry has made a significant contribution to marine gravity field modeling. To improve the accuracy and resolution, we propose a new twin-satellite altimetry. Such a system has several advantages. Among others, it provides (i) twice the number of samples per time epoch, and (ii) information about the cross-track surface gradient with high accuracy because most of the environmental and tidal errors will be common to the simultaneous measurements and therefore cancel out when computing the cross-track gradient computation. We describe a rigorous procedure for the deduction of the sea surface gradient at each altimeter observation point (i.e., not only at the crossovers), from the twin-satellite altimetry system. The precision of the gradient will be slightly affected by orbit errors, instrument drift, and inaccuracies in the geophysical corrections to be applied. We also demonstrate that a 1 mGal accuracy and 1 min resolution marine altimetry gravity field can be obtained if certain conditions are met. To achieve the expected goal, we recommend an orbital configuration, phasing two satellites in 4-s time delay such that the Earth rotation creates a natural baseline between the two satellites, and a 18 kHz SAR altimeter.     

架空缆索遥控自动除垢加油器的研制

缆道测流方法是应用最广泛、最成熟的测流方法。水文测验缆道作为水文测报工作中重要的基本设施之一,随着水文现代化的发展,原始的手摇缆道逐渐实现了自动化,但测流缆道架空缆索保养仍靠人工实现,危险性强、作业难度大,遥控自动除垢加油器的研制成功,实现除垢与加油自动同步进行,提高了缆索保养的效率和质量,延长了缆索的使用寿命。     

北太平洋涡旋振荡研究进展

从观测事实和动力机制两方面,对近年发现的新的气候模态——北太平洋涡旋振荡（NPGO）的研究成果进行系统总结。NPGO的空间结构表现为北太平洋上海表高度异常（SSHA）的正负中心呈南北偶极子分布,当NPGO位于正位相时,南北涡流都加强,这种加强是由风应力旋度及风生涌流所驱动的。关于NPGO的机制研究发现,NPGO是中纬太...     

Dynamic Study on Fracture Problems in Viscoelastic Sedimentary Rocks Using the Numerical Manifold Method

The viscoelastic deformation behavior of a sedimentary rock under different loading rates is numerically modeled and investigated by the numerical manifold method (NMM). By incorporating a modified 3-element viscoelastic constitutive mode in the NMM, crack initiation and propagation criteria, and crack identification and evolution techniques, the effects of the loading rates on the cracking behavior of a sedimentary rock, such as crack open displacement, crack sliding displacement, crack initiation, crack propagation and final failure mode, are successfully modeled. The numerical results reveal that under a high loading rate (>1,000 MPa/s), due to the viscoelastic property of the sedimentary rock, not only the structural behavior deviates from that of elastic model, but also different cracking processes and final failure modes are obtained.