滇西地区小地震群特征

根据滇西地区（23°．8－28°N;97°．0－101°．5E）1966年1月－1996年7月89个ML≤4．7的小地震震群资料分别总结出滇西地区H,K,U,η,b,△M参数的判别指标和地区特征。着重讨论了小地震震群与云南及邻区中强震关系,以及综合利用上述参数尝试预报未来中强震。     

Assessment of the risk of rockfalls in Wu Gorge, Three Gorges, China

In 2007 and 2008, six big damaging rockfalls occurred at four sites in Wu Gorge, the second gorge of the Three Gorges, China. Detailed surveys and aerial-photographic interpretation identified 104 potentially dangerous rock masses. This paper reviews previous rock-mass risk ratings, examines dangerous rock-mass structure and presents a new assessment system for rockfall risk (ASRFR) in the Wu Gorge area. The ASRFR considers 15 factors: seven factors for hazard and eight factors for consequence. Relative importance weights for these factors are ascertained using an analytic hierarchy process. Using an equation to calculate the risk, the 104 dangerous rock masses were divided into three risk groups: high risk (33 sites), medium risk (33 sites) and low risk (38 sites). The ASRFR analysis can be used to divide the shipping route through the Wu Gorge into seven courses each of one of three classes: safe-route regions, yellow-alarm regions and red-alarm regions. The system provides geological information and a rockfall-risk management tool for local government and the shipment-route department.     

地震力学成因及前兆机理研究——再“读”唐山地震有感

简述弹性回跳学说、板块构造模型及岩浆活动型地震等地震力学成因的现有观点,并对其进行了讨论。通过分析唐山震区的壳幔深部结构、前兆异常时空演化等资料,进一步论证了唐山地震力学成因为岩浆活动的观点。在此基础上对唐山地震前兆机理进行了研究,指出岩浆活动既是该地震发生的成因,也是各类前兆异常的成因,它们是岩浆活动这枚硬币的两面。最后指出只有正确认识地震和前兆的成因,才有可能用前兆资料对地震三要素做出较好的预报。     

汶川8．0级地震前兆异常对比研究

The contrast research results show that the number of items and stations with imminent, short and medium term precursor anomalies for the Wenchuan M_S 8. 0 earthquake is less than that of the Menglian earthquake. The number of anomalies and stations associated with the Wenchuan earthquake increased in the early stage of the short-term range,as opposed to the later period for the Menglian and Lijiang earthquakes. Most of the medium term anomalies occurred two to three years before the Wenchuan earthquake,when the number of anomaly stations and items was eleven,and a great change appeared in the observation values in about half of the stations ( items ) . However,for the Menglian earthquake,medium term anomalies happened one to two years before the earthquake, the number of abnormal stations and items reached 20,and a sharp change appeared in the observation values six months to one year before the earthquake in about 30 percent of the stations or items. In the epicenter and the nearby area,the macroscopic abnormalities started 3 years before the Wenchuan earthquake and lasted intermittently until 1 month before the earthquake. Within 2 percent of the total area of the province,the macroscopic abnormalities accounted for 30 to 50 percent of the total number of anomalies of the Province. For the Xingtai,Tangshan,Haicheng,Songpan earthquakes,the macroscopic anomalies started two to three months before,or on the very day of the earthquakes. The common feature of the precursors between the Wenchuan and other strong earthquakes is the appearance of tremendous changes in a certain number of observation values of anomalies in the mid and short terms before all these earthquakes.     

A PRIMARY RECOGNITION ON THE CLIMATIC SIGNIFICANCE OF ICE CORE ISOTOPE RECORD IN NAIMONA'NYI OF WEST TIBETAN PLATEAU

纳木那尼冰川是喜马拉雅山西部地区规模较大的冰川之一,也是开展冰芯气候意义研究有重要潜在价值的冰川.但由于纳木那尼冰川位于西风环流和印度季风影响范围的交界带,不同的环流系统所输送的水汽带来不同的降水稳定同位素信号.因此确定纳木那尼冰芯同位素记录的气候意义是开展该地区冰芯气候记录研究的前提条件.2008年在该冰川积累区所钻取的8.78m浅冰芯为这一研究工作提供了可能.本文对该冰芯的稳定同位素记录以及普兰气象站的气象数据进行了分析与讨论.研究结果表明,同位素的年际变化与当地普兰县气象站气温的年际变化具有较好的对应关系.这可能与当地降水受到夏季季风的影响较小有关.测量结果表明早期的深冰芯钻取点位于冰川的消融区,而冰川的积累区仍位于冰川更高的区域,而且积累区冰川厚度更大,更有可能保存更长时间尺度的冰芯记录.这也为以后开展新的纳木那尼深孔冰芯及气候意义研究提供了借鉴.     

A numerical study on the role of wind forcing,bottom topography,and nonhydrostacy in coastal upwelling

The responses of coastal upwelling to different magnitudes of wind stress over a narrow and a wide shelf are studied using a 3-D primitive equation numerical model. The results show that the position of the upwelling front depends on both the strength and the duration of the wind forcing. The comparison between different shelf widths shows that wide shelf will limit the cold water intrusion, so that the corresponding decrease in sea surface temperature is less compared to narrow shelves. Besides, the difference between hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic model results shows that nonhydrostatic effects will enhance the growth of surface meandering, and can be more pronounced near steep fronts. Although difference does exist, our results show that the nonhydrostatic effects are very small at least in this idealized study case.     

孕震系统宏观层次的单元体应力水平群体涨落模型

孕震系统是一个开放的复杂巨统统，系统具有层次结构。因此应分层次建立孕震系统的力学模型。作者从地球整体现出发，提出了单元体应力水平群体涨落模型，该模型为孕震系统宏观层次上的力学模型。这一模型可以作为几个地震带或几个地块内，地震活动频度、相关转移、时空分布及各类定点观测手段异常台项数群体涨落、时空转移、震后异常等研究的物理基础。     

雅鲁藏布江流域降水中δ18O 的时空变化

通过研究2005年西藏雅鲁藏布江流域拉孜、奴各沙、羊村和奴下4个站点降水中的δ18O变化,揭示了雅鲁藏布江流域降水中稳定同位素的时空变化规律.研究显示,雅鲁藏布江流域降水中δ18O季节变化明显,高值出现在季风降水之前的春季,而低值出现在季风降水季节,其间降水中δ18O具有明显的"降水量效应";从空间上看,降水中的δ18O从下游至上游递减,造成这种分布特征主要是由于"高程效应"以及水汽远距离输送导致其中的18O被贫化的结果.经计算表明,雅鲁藏布江流域降水中δ18O由于"高程效应"造成的递减率为0.34‰/100m,而水平方向上自东向西由于水汽远距离输送造成的递减率为0.7‰/100km.从季风期间大范围的降水过程来看,降水中δ18O的空间变化主要受"降水量效应"制约.     

关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。     

水文学研究进展与展望

水文学是研究地球上水的起源、存在、分布、循环运动等变化规律,并运用这些规律为人类服务的知识体系。水文学研究经历了由经验到理论、由简单过程到复杂系统、由定性描述到定量模拟的发展历程,其学科体系演进与科学技术进步及社会发展需求紧密联系,并由此衍生出诸如生态水文学、气象水文学、冰冻圈水文学、遥感水文学、同位素水文学、城市水文学、社会水文学等多种交叉研究领域与分支学科。当今水文学研究在水文多尺度观测、陆面—水文—社会耦合模拟及多源观测—模型同化技术等领域取得显著进展,水文学研究的广度和深度不断拓展。未来水文学研究将面向陆地水文循环的变化规律及其效应,重点关注水文循环变化特征和机理、水文循环变化趋势预估及水文循环变化的自然和社会影响等前沿课题;从原有就水论水研究思路转向在自然地理综合分析框架下以水循环为纽带开展的多尺度、多过程集成研究。