天山北坡天然草场牧草干旱指标研究

通过降水,土壤水分,天然草场产草量之间建立的统计关系,来说明水分供应是影响牧草产量的重要因素,并依据降水和土壤水分与牧草产草量的关系划分出牧草生长中水分供给的正常,干旱等指标。     

A new MODIS daffy cloud free snow cover mapping algorithm on the Tibetan Plateau

Because of similar reflective characteristics of snow and cloud, the weather status seriously affects snow monitoring using optical remote sensing data. Cloud amount analysis during 2010 to 2011 snow seasons shows that cloud cover is the major limitation for snow cover monitoring using MOD10A1 and MYD10A1. By use of MODIS daily snow cover products and AMSR-E snow wa- ter equivalent products （SWE）, several cloud elimination methods were integrated to produce a new daily cloud flee snow cover product, and information of snow depth from 85 climate stations in Tibetan Plateau area （TP） were used to validate the accuracy of the new composite snow cover product. The results indicate that snow classification accuracy of the new daily snow cover product reaches 91.7% when snow depth is over 3 cm. This suggests that the new daily snow cover mapping algorithm is suitable for monitoring snow cover dynamic changes in TP.     

湖北省粮食生产合理布局的初步研究

湖北省112°E以东的平原、丘陵地区,是粮食的主要产地。南北所跨纬度29°42′—32°34′N。本文分析了影响小麦和双季稻产量的气象因子的南北差异。用回归分析方法确定了它们之间的定量关系,再用聚类分析法进行了小麦和晚稻的种植区域的分类,得到了比较满意的结果。以31°N纬线为界,以北的鄂中丘陵、鄂北岗地为稻麦两熟区;以南的江汉平原和鄂东南为双季稻区。     

Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8–12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions.     

东北振兴以来吉林省区域经济差异的时空演变研究

基于吉林省2003~2015年间地区生产总值和人均地区生产总值数据,以市域、县域两个尺度单元为研究对象,采用人口加权变异系数、基尼系数、泰尔指数等统计分析方法,对吉林省东北振兴战略实施以来的13 a内,区域经济差异的时空演变进行定量分析,并运用泰尔指数的分解方法,探讨了吉林省区域经济差异的空间格局。结果发现：① 吉林省区域经济总体差异、市域差异、县域差异均呈逐年下降趋势。② 通过差异贡献率显示：县域差异是区域总体差异变化的主导力量,长春市域的内部差异远高于其他市域,但有逐年减小的趋势,长吉两地的二元结构仍然突出,是全省区域经济差异产生的主要来源,主导着全省区域经济差异走向;③ 从2003~2015年来看,全省经济增长速度较快的地区主要还是集中在“三核一带”;④吉林省经济差异主要是由资源禀赋、产业结构、极化效应和政策导向等多种因素综合作用的结果。     

基于价值变化的城乡不动产征收博弈分析研究

不动产征收前后价值变化研究对于不动产征收主体博弈分析具有重要的意义,也为不动产征收补偿价格评估提供了理论支持。主要通过城乡不动产征收前后价值变化以及被征收人利益损害的分析,探讨了不同目的下的中国不动产征收主体博弈模型及行为选择。研究认为:(1)基于预期收益原则的不动产征收价格评估为不动产征收补偿与征收增值收益分配提供了理论依据;(2)基于公共目的性征收分析表明被征收人的权益保护很大程度上依赖于政府的角色定位,基于非公共目的性征收分析表明由于增值利益分配的零和博弈冲突以及政府的惯性强势思维,对现有政策体制不可避免地带来一系列冲突;(3)基于公共目的性划分的不动产征收与国家收购两种类型有利于区别制定不动产征收政策,从而促进土地资源的合理流动与优化配置。     

EFFECTS OF THE ENVELOPE DEGREE OF OROGRAPHY ON THE SIMULATED CLIMATE PROPERTIES

A primitive equation model with a zonal domain and a p-σ incorporated vertical coordinate systemis used to study the effects of the envelope degree of orography on the simulated properties of bothwinter and summer climates.Results show that the orography with a larger envelope degree can im-prove the simulations to certain extent,especially in winter.It is found that the simulated propertiesof climate are mainly determined by the co-effects of the land-sea and the orographic distributions,and the envelope degree of orography has a secondary effect.However it should be taken properly inorder to improve simulations:otherwise,it would be harmful.Different envelope degrees of orogra-phy can be adopted in different areas.     

南京市农业资源开发效益的评估

根据南京市农业资源开发的有关资料，参照已有的研究成果，拟定了农业资源开发效益评估的指标体系，确定其仅重分配，分别对农业资源开发后的经济效益，生态效益，社会效益及综合效益进行了评估。所得结果，为南京市农业资源的进一步开发利用提供了依据。     

极地海冰异常对我国夏季大气环流和降水影响的数值研究

利用全球大气环流谱模式分别进行了南极和北极海冰面积异常偏大和偏小的数值试验，对６－８月的结果进行了对比分析，讨论了极地海冰异常对我国夏季大气环流和降水的可能影响。结果表明，南极或北极海冰面积异常偏大，则我国夏季风变弱，特别蝇使得南亚高压、西北太平洋副热带高压等减弱。南极海冰面积偏大使得我国黄河－长江－带地区降水减少，北极海冰面积偏大，造成我国东部地区的降水量有所减少，模拟结果与统计分析相一致。可同