Regime-dependent evaluation of accumulated precipitation in COSMO

Regime-dependent evaluation is a relatively new approach to assess model performance. It consists of classifying the model biases according to a discrete number of regimes and evaluating model output within each regime. In this paper, the regimes are firstly defined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, based on the objective Jenkinson-Collison classification technique which distinguishes synoptic patterns by strength, direction and vorticity of the geostrophic flow. Eight directional and two vorticity circulation regimes (circulation types) are specified. In this way, it is possible to quantify the model performance for cases with for example westerly winds only, or with cyclonic circulation only. A second regime classification is based on temperature, which allows for detection of temperature-dependent model performance. Modelled accumulated precipitation (mm/6?h) is evaluated with rain gauges for the years 2007 and 2008. Two variants of the COSMO model are evaluated: a fine-resolution version (2.8?km, COSMO-DE) and a coarse-resolution version (7?km, COSMO-EU). In COSMO-EU, a windward/leeward effect becomes visible since circulation is related to dominant wind direction, hence to windward and lee side of orography. In COSMO-DE, no circulation dependent but a height-related bias is identified and further explored, making use of temperature-dependent evaluation which unveils a positive model bias related to solid precipitation.     

Seismic Response Analysis of Pile Foundations

A quasi-3D continuum method is presented for the dynamic nonlinear effective stress analysis of pile foundation under earthquake excitation. The method was validated using data from centrifuge tests on single piles and pile groups in liquefiable soils conducted at the University of California at Davis. Some results from this validation studies are presented. The API approach to pile response using p–y curves was evaluated using the quasi-3D method and the results from simulated earthquake tests on a model pile in a centrifuge. The recommended API stiffnesses appear to be much too high for seismic response analysis under strong shaking, but give very good estimates of elastic response.     

Hercynite–quartz-bearing granulites from Brejões Dome area, Jequié Block, Bahia, Brazil: Influence of charnockite intrusion on granulite facies metamorphism

In the present study, we describe and discuss the geology of aluminous–magnesian granulites and associated garnet-bearing charnockitic granulite from the Brejões Dome area, located in the Jequié Block, part of the São Francisco Craton in Bahia, Brazil. Investigation of metamorphic mineral assemblages allows the evaluation of P–T conditions for the formation of these rocks, and therefore to obtain constraints for the better understanding of the geological evolution of the area. We conclude that the rocks from the Brejões Dome area were formed under granulite facies conditions of low to intermediate pressure (5–8 kbar). Temperatures determined in samples of aluminous–magnesian granulites collected away from the dome are in the order of 850 °C, similar to those determined elsewhere in the southern part of the Itabuna–Salvador–Curaçá Orogen. However, samples of the same rock type collected close to the Brejões Dome are hercynite + quartz-bearing and record higher temperatures of about 900–1000 °C. It is suggested that the intrusion of the Brejões charnockite diapir was responsible for a local increase in temperature above the peak temperature of regional granulite metamorphism.     

A 6000-year record of ecological and hydrological changes from Laguna de la Leche, north coastal Cuba

Laguna de la Leche, north coastal Cuba, is a shallow (≤ 3 m), oligohaline (∼ 2.0-4.5‰) coastal lake surrounded by mangroves and cattail stands. A 227-cm core was studied using loss-on-ignition, pollen, calcareous microfossils, and plant macrofossils. From ∼6200 to ∼ 4800 cal yr BP, the area was an oligohaline lake. The period from ∼ 4800 to ∼ 4200 cal yr BP saw higher water levels and a freshened system; these changes are indicated by an increase in the regional pollen rain, as well as by the presence of charophyte oogonia and an increase in freshwater gastropods (Hydrobiidae). By ∼ 4000 cal yr BP, an open mesohaline lagoon had formed; an increase in salt-tolerant foraminifers suggests that water level increase was driven by relative sea level rise. The initiation of Laguna de la Leche correlates with a shift to wetter conditions as indicated in pollen records from the southeastern United States (e.g., Lake Tulane). This synchronicity suggests that sea level rise caused middle Holocene environmental change region-wide. Two other cores sampled from mangrove swamps in the vicinity of Laguna de la Leche indicate that a major expansion of mangroves was underway by ∼ 1700 cal yr BP.     

A Study of Piles during Earthquakes: Issues of Design and Analysis

The seismic response of pile foundations is a very complex process involving inertial interaction between structure and pile foundation, kinematic interaction between piles and soils, seismically induced pore-water pressures (PWP) and the non-linear response of soils to strong earthquake motions. In contrast, very simple pseudo-static methods are used in engineering practice to determine response parameters for design. These methods neglect several of the factors cited above that can strongly affect pile response. Also soil–pile interaction is modelled using either linear or non-linear springs in a Winkler computational model for pile response. The reliability of this constitutive model has been questioned. In the case of pile groups, the Winkler model for analysis of a single pile is adjusted in various ways by empirical factors to yield a computational model for group response. Can the results of such a simplified analysis be adequate for design in all situations?The lecture will present a critical evaluation of general engineering practice for estimating the response of pile foundations in liquefiable and non-liquefiable soils during earthquakes. The evaluation is part of a major research study on the seismic design of pile foundations sponsored by a Japanese construction company with interests in performance based design and the seismic response of piles in reclaimed land. The evaluation of practice is based on results from field tests, centrifuge tests on model piles and comprehensive non-linear dynamic analyses of pile foundations consisting of both single piles and pile groups. Studies of particular aspects of pile–soil interaction were made. Piles in layered liquefiable soils were analysed in detail as case histories show that these conditions increase the seismic demand on pile foundations. These studies demonstrate the importance of kinematic interaction, usually neglected in simple pseudo-static methods. Recent developments in designing piles to resist lateral spreading of the ground after liquefaction are presented. A comprehensive study of the evaluation of pile cap stiffness coefficients was undertaken and a reliable method of selecting the single value stiffnesses demanded by mainstream commercial structural software was developed. Some other important findings from the study are: the relative effects of inertial and kinematic interactions between foundation and soil on acceleration and displacement spectra of the super-structure; a method for estimating whether inertial interaction is likely to be important or not in a given situation and so when a structure may be treated as a fixed based structure for estimating inertial loads; the occurrence of large kinematic moments when a liquefied layer or naturally occurring soft layer is sandwiched between two hard layers; and the role of rotational stiffness in controlling pile head displacements, especially in liquefiable soils. The lecture concludes with some recommendations for practice that recognize that design, especially preliminary design, will always be based on simplified procedures.     

The copper–gold and gold deposits of the Neoproterozoic Mara Rosa magmatic arc, central Brazil

Mineral exploration in the Neoproterozoic Goiás Magmatic Arc, central Brazil, dates back to the beginning of the 1970s. The Goiás Magmatic Arc extends for more than 1000 km in the western and northern parts of Goiás, into Tocantins, and disappears under the Phanerozoic Parnaíba Basin. Two main areas of Neoproterozoic juvenile crust, the Arenópolis and the Mara Rosa arcs, are identified. They lie in the southern and northern sectors of the Goiás Arc, respectively, and are relatively well studied.The Goiás Magmatic Arc dominantly comprises tonalitic/dioritic orthogneisses and narrow NNE-striking volcano-sedimentary belts. Recent U–Pb zircon data indicate crystallization of the tonalite protoliths in two main episodes: the older between ca. 890 and 790 Ma and the younger at 670–600 Ma. Nd isotopic data indicate the very primitive nature of the original magmas, with T_DM model ages mostly within the interval between 0.9 and 1.0 Ga and _Nd(T) values between +3.0 and +4.6. In the Chapada–Mara Rosa area, the supracrustal rocks form three individual NNE belts, known as the eastern, central and western belts, separated from each other by metatonalites/metadiorites.Gold and Cu–Au deposits of the Mara Rosa area occur in four main associations: (i) Au–Ag–Ba (e.g., Zacarias), which are interpreted as stratiform, disseminated volcanogenic deposits, (ii) Cu–Au (e.g., Chapada) which has been interpreted either as volcanogenic or as a porphyry-type deposit, (iii) Au-only deposits (e.g., Posse), interpreted as an epigenetic disseminated deposit controlled by a mesozonal shear zone and (iv) Au–Cu–Bi (e.g., the Mundinho occurrence), which are considered as vein-type deposits controlled by magnetite-rich diorites.The gold and Cu–Au deposits located within the Goiás Magmatic Arc can be spatially and temporally related to the magmatic evolution of a collisional belt or, in other words, to an orogenic gold deposit model. These models are based on the continuous evolution of collisional plates, which can be subdivided into four stages with distinct magmatic characteristics: (i) subduction stage, (ii) syntectonic collisional magmatism stage, (iii) post-tectonic collisional magmatism stage and (iv) post-orogenic extension stage.     

Boundary layer aspects and elevated heat source effects of the Alps

Summary High pressure influence in the whole inner-ALPEX area on April 22, 1982 gave an opportunity for the ALPEX scientific task no. 6: To study the effects of differential radiative heating introduced by the alpine mountain range due to elevation, topographic features and albedo. Electra flight E-422 with its four-fold north-south, south-north flight tracks was especially devoted to study the diurnal variations of the atmospheric boundary layer and the airflow on both sides of the Alps along the Gotthard cross-section under strong inversion conditions. Using the flight technique of vertical zigzagging, a total of 24 vertical soundings have been completed along four traverses.Synoptic rawinsonde and surface data, digital satellite data and microbarograph data are used to examine the thermodynamical aspects of the diurnal development of the alpine heat low. The fine structure of the boundary layer is documented by cross-sectional analysis of the potential temperature, mixing ratio and the three wind components from the 1 Hz aircraft data along the traverses. In addition, 15 aircraft soundings have been selected to evaluate the vertical distribution of the turbulent variances and fluxes on both sides of the Alps. The differences of the structure and temporal evolution of the alpine boundary layer on the north and south side of the Alps, as well as the differences between the alpine boundary layer and the boundary layer over homogeneous terrain are significant and need further discussion.

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Aspekte der Grenzschicht und Effekte der erhöhten Wärmequelle der Alpen

Zusammenfassung Hochdruckeinfluß im gesamten inneren ALPEX-Gebiet am 22. April 1982 ermöglichte die ALPEX-Aufgabe Nr. 6: die Effekte unterschiedlicher Strahlungserwärmung, welche je nach Höhenlage, topographischen Gegebenheiten und Albedo der alpinen Gebirgskette verursacht werden, zu untersuchen. Der Electra-Flug E-422 mit seinen vierfachen Nord-Süd, Süd-Nord-Flugrouten beschäftigte sich besonders mit der Untersuchung der täglichen Veränderung der atmosphärischen Grenzschicht und der Luftströmung an beiden Seiten der Alpen entlang des Querschnittes beim Gotthard bei ausgeprägten Inversionen. Unter Verwendung der Flugtechnik des vertikalen Zickzacks wurden insgesamt 24 Vertikalsondierungen entlang von vier Schnittlinien durchgeführt.Synoptische Radiosonden- und Bodendaten sowie digitale Satelliten- und Mikrobarographendaten werden zur Untersuchung der thermodynamischen Aspekte der täglichen Entwicklung des alpinen Hitzetiefs verwendet. Die Feinstruktur der Grenzschicht wird durch Querschnittanalysen der potentiellen. Temperatur, des Mischungsverhältnisses und der drei Windkomponenten aus den vom Flugzeug entlang der Schnittlinien gewonnenen 1 Hz Daten dokumentiert. Darüber hinaus wurden 15 Flugzeugsondierungen ausgewählt, um die vertikale Verteilung der turbulenten Varianzen und Flüsse an beiden Seiten der Alpen zu beurteilen. Sowohl die Unterschiede in der Struktur und der zeitlichen Entwicklung der alpinen Grenzschicht an der nördlichen und der südlichen Seite der Alpen als auch die Unterschiede zwischen der alpinen Grenzschicht und der Grenzschicht über homogenem Gelände sind signifikant und erfordern eine weitere Diskussion.

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With 8 Figures     

Offshore pile foundations in sand under earthquake loading

A new approach to the analysis of pile foundations, developed recently for the analysis of a pile supported offshore structure, is described. The method uses a coupled soil-pile analysis which takes into account the non-linear resistance of the pile to lateral deformation and the effect of progressively increasing pore water pressures on that resistance. The analysis allows also for radiation of energy away from the site. Typical of results given in the paper are: (1) the effect of pore water pressure increases on the API cyclic loading curves, (2) the degradation in lateral stiffness due to pore pressure increases for piles with fixed and free heads, (3) variations in deflections and moments with depth due to pore water pressure from those predicted using current API procedures.     

Large motion analysis of compliant structures using euler parameters

The large motions that a compliant offshore structure experiences were analysed using Euler parameters. Firstly, the equations of motion of a rigid body undergoing large translations and rotations were obtained using the Lagrangian formulation. Secondly, the hydrodynamic forces acting on the structure were calculated using the modified Morison's equation. A tension-leg platform (TLP) subjected to an oblique incident wave was then analysed using the above formulation. This was followed by an analysis of an articulated tower for comparison with the results of other researchers. An example showing the tower undergoing subharmonic oscillations was also included.