Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan

Runs of three regional climate models (RCMs) dynamically downscaling the outputs of atmosphere?Cocean coupling general circulation models (AOGCMs) are studied. These RCMs are NCAR-MM5, NCEP-RSM (Regional Spectral Model), and Purdue-PRM (Purdue Regional Model). A useful approach is developed to compare the variability, error, and spatial distribution of model-simulated results with respect to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets over East Asia and seven sub-regions during the 1990s. The results show that NCEP-RSM outperforms the other two in meeting criteria selected on evaluating the model performance. Furthermore, three super-ensemble approaches are tested on merging RCMs?? outputs. The inverse of the square error summation (ISES) method is selected as a suitable method with a generally good performance during the verification period. The projected future climate changes by ISES indicate larger temperature increases over high-latitude continent and smaller over low-latitude maritime areas. Rainfall will increase in summer over the central simulation domain, i.e. the eastern China, but decrease in winter, which are clearly linked to the variation in the synoptic airflows. Also, a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events than what happened in the 1990s is projected. The projection over Taiwan suggests strong warming in summer, followed by autumn, winter, and spring. The interaction between the synoptic flow and the local terrain affects significantly the changes in precipitation. In general, larger change of the variability of rainfall will be over areas with lesser rainfall in the future, while lesser change will be over areas with more projected rainfall.     

Comparison of high-energy galactic and atmospheric tau neutrino flux

We compare the tau neutrino flux arising from the galaxy and the earth atmosphere for 10³E/GeV10¹¹. The intrinsic and oscillated tau neutrino fluxes from both sources are calculated. The intrinsic galactic ν_τ flux (E10³ GeV) is calculated by considering the interactions of high-energy cosmic-rays with the matter present in our galaxy, whereas the oscillated galactic ν_τ flux is coming from the oscillation of the galactic ν_μ flux. For the intrinsic atmospheric ν_τ flux, we extend the validity of a previous calculation from E10⁶ GeV up to E10¹¹ GeV. The oscillated atmospheric ν_τ flux is, on the other hand, rather suppressed. We find that, for 10³E/GeV5×10⁷, the oscillated ν_τ flux along the galactic plane dominates over the maximal intrinsic atmospheric ν_τ flux, i.e., the flux along the horizontal direction. We also briefly mention the presently envisaged prospects for observing these high-energy tau neutrinos.     

欠压实超压层自然电位测井响应机理研究

以欠压实超压层为研究对象,利用双水模型和热动力学理论,推导了欠压实超压泥质砂岩、泥岩的薄膜电位方程,分析了压实作用对薄膜电位造成的影响以及欠压实超压泥质砂岩储层自然电位的响应特征.理论研究表明:压实作用对泥岩薄膜电位影响显著,对于盐水泥浆,泥岩薄膜电位随压实系数的变大而增加,淡水泥浆条件下,泥岩薄膜电位随压实系数的变大...     

Thermodynamics of the five-dimensional Schwarzschild-de Sitter black hole

Considering the fact that there is a correlation between the black hole horizon and cosmological horizon, we discuss the thermodynamic properties of de Sitter spacetime. The equivalent temperature and energy of de Sitter spacetime are obtained. It is shown that the upper limit energy of de Sitter spacetime is equal to the energy of a pure de Sitter spacetime. The thermodynamic entropy of de Sitter spacetime is the sum of the black hole horizon thermodynamic entropy and the one of cosmological horizon.     

Default risk-based probabilistic decision model for risk management and control

This study describes how risk-based risk control allocation models work. We begin by discussing the economic rationale for allocating risk control in a diversified organization such as an enterprise. For a probability model for risk control decision making under uncertainty and risk, we propose a model involving stochastic total loss amount constraints with respect to various tolerable default levels. Our main objective is to develop a method that will allow shaping of the risk associated with risk control outcomes. The direct and indirect losses caused by simulated disasters can be estimated using an engineering and financial analysis model. Based on this model, we can generate an exceeding probability curve and then calculate how much of the loss can be eliminated or transferred to other entities should funds be allocated to risk control. The optimal natural disaster risk control arrangement with a probabilistic formulation is explained in this paper. Results from the proposed formulations are compared in case studies. The model attempts to apply risk-based budget guidelines to risk reduction measurement within a portfolio-based risk framework.     

The integration of nautical hazard assessment and harbor GIS models to the Taichung Port area in Taiwan

Human hazards can represent a significant risk to the population and cause huge economic damage in many urbanized regions. In order to be able to identify risk hot spots and implement targeted risk reduction measures, decision makers need to have a clear picture of the risk situation in their countries or regions. This work reviews existing approaches for human hazard and risk assessment, and geographic information system–based statistical tools are employed to analyze the hazard cases which happened within the Taichung Port area from 2000 to 2010. Based on hazard analysis, we establish a seasonal digital map and calculate the center of the distribution of hazard cases and the standard distance and observe the distribution trend. We also identify the hazard cases’ gathering mode by the average nearest neighbor method. Finally, hot spot analysis is proposed to assess the position and features of hot and cold spots, as a reference for coast guard patrols.     

Comparison of metal accumulation in the azooxanthellate scleractinian coral (Tubastraea coccinea) from different polluted environments

The response of metal accumulation in coral Tubastraea coccinea to various degrees of metal enrichment was investigated from the Yin-Yang Sea (YYS) receiving abandoned mining effluents, the Kueishan Islet (KI) hydrothermal vent field, and the nearshore area of remoted Green Island (GI). The concentrations of most dissolved metals were highest in seawater at YYS, followed by KI, and then GI, showing the effects of anthropogenic and venting inputs on metal levels. Five metals (Co, Fe, Mn, Ni, and Zn) yielded significant differences (p < 0.05) among the skeleton samples. We identified similar patterns in the metal–Ca ratios, indicating that the elevated metals in skeletons was a consequence of external inputs. The coral tissues were relatively sensitive in monitoring metal accumulation, showing significant differences among three locations for Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Pb, Ni, and Zn. Specific bioconcentration factors provided strong support for the differential metal accumulation in skeletons and tissues.     

The topographic signature of a major typhoon

In August 2009, the typhoon Morakot, characterized by a cumulative rainfall up to 2884 mm in about three days, triggered thousands of landslides in Taiwan. The availability of LiDAR surveys before (2005) and after (2010) this event offers a unique opportunity to investigate the topographic signatures of a major typhoon. The analysis considers the comparison of slope–area relationships derived by LiDAR digital terrain models (DTMs). This approach has been successfully used to distinguish hillslope from channelized processes, as a basis to develop landscape evolution models and theories, and understand the linkages between landscape morphology and tectonics, climate, and geology. We considered six catchments affected by a different degree of erosion: three affected by shallow and deep‐seated landslides, and three not affected by erosion. For each of these catchments, 2 m DTMs were derived from LiDAR data. The scaling regimes of local slope versus drainage area suggested that for the catchments affected by landslides: (i) the hillslope‐to‐valley transitions morphology, for a given value of drainage area, is shifted towards higher value of slopes, thus indicating a likely migration of the channelized processes and erosion toward the catchment boundary (the catchment head becomes steeper because of erosion); (ii) the topographic gradient along valley profiles tends to decrease progressively (the valley profile becomes gentler because of sediment deposition after the typhoon). The catchments without any landslides present a statistically indistinguishable slope–area scaling regime. These results are interesting since for the first time, using multi‐temporal high‐resolution topography derived by LiDAR, we demonstrated that a single climate event is able to cause significant major geomorphic changes on the landscape, detectable using slope–area scaling analysis. This provides new insights about landscape evolution under major climate forcing. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SOME NEW SPECIES OF NANNOPLANKTON IN JIAOZHOU BAY, SHANDONG, CHINA

Three new spades and a new variety of nannoplankton, Chrysochromulina papillata, Gaysochromulina chiton var. minuta, Paraphysomonas simplexocorbita and Paraphysomonas bisorbulina are reported in this paper. All were isolated from the preliminary culture samples of seawater collected from Jiaozhou Bay, Shandong, China. The three species occurred at Station 1(120° 14.56′ E, 36°4′N) in November 1984, the new variety at Station 2 (120° 16.35° E,36°4.5′N) in January, 1985. The morphological features, especially the structures of the scales of these new nannoplankton,. are described. The differences between the new species and the related ones are discussed; their movement and nutrition, and the temperature and salinity of their biotopes are also mentioned.