Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

A formation mechanism of magnetic elements in regions of mixed polarity

We present 2-D, fully compressible radiation-MHD simulations of the solar photospheric and subphotospheric layers that run for 2 hours of solar time starting from a magnetic configuration with mixed polarities. In the atmospheric layers the simulation reveals a correlation between field strength and inclination, with a nearly vertical strong-field magnetic component and a more horizontal weak-field component, in agreement with the observations. Our simulation also shows that magnetic flux is converted from one of these states to the other. In particular, magnetic flux sheets can also be formed when a new downflow lane starts due to granule fragmentation. The dynamics of the granulation and field-line reconnection are found to play a role in the initial stages of a magnetic element's formation. The simulation predicts that during or shortly after their formation magnetic elements could be associated with oppositely polarized flux at a small spatial scale.     

Cosmic‐ray exposure history of two Frontier Mountain H‐chondrite showers from spallation and neutron‐capture products

Abstract— We measured the concentrations of ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca and ¹⁴C in the metal and/or stone fractions of 27 Antarctic chondrites from Frontier Mountain (FRO), including two large H‐chondrite showers. To estimate the pre‐atmospheric size of the two showers, we determined the contribution of neutron‐capture produced ³⁶Cl (half‐life = 3.01 times 10⁵ years) and ⁴¹Ca (1.04 times 10⁵ years) in the stone fraction. The measured activities of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl and ⁴¹Ca, as well as spallation produced ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, were compared with Monte Carlo‐based model calculations. The largest shower, FRO 90174, includes eight fragments with an average terrestrial age of (100 ± 30) × 10³ years; the neutron‐capture saturation activities extend to 27 dpm/kg stone for ³⁶Cl and 19 dpm/kg stone for ⁴¹Ca. The concentrations of spallation produced ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl constrain the radius (R) to 80–100 cm, while the neutron‐capture ⁴¹Ca activities indicate that the samples originated from the outer 25 cm. With a pre‐atmospheric radius of 80–100 cm, FRO 90174 is among the largest of the Antarctic stony meteorites. The large pre‐atmospheric size supports our hypothesis that at least 50 of the ～150 classified H5/H6‐chondrites from the Frontier Mountain stranding area belong to this single fall; this hypothesis does not entirely account for the high H/L ratio at Frontier Mountain. The smaller shower, FRO 90001, includes four fragments with an average terrestrial age of (40 ± 10) × 10³ years; they contain small contributions of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl, but no excess of ⁴¹Ca. FRO 90001 experienced a complex exposure history with high shielding conditions in the first stage (150 < R < 300 cm) and much lower shielding in the second stage (R < 30 cm), the latter starting ～1.0 million years (Ma) ago. Based on the measured ¹⁰Be/²¹Ne and ²⁶Al/²¹Ne ratios, the cosmic‐ray exposure ages of the two showers are 7.2 ± 0.5 Ma for FRO 90174 and 8 ± 1 Ma for FRO 90001. These ages coincide with the well‐established H‐chondrite peak and corroborate the observation that the exposure age distribution of FRO H‐chondrites is similar to that of non‐Antarctic falls. In addition, we found that corrections for neutron‐capture ³⁶Ar (from decay of ³⁶Cl) result in concordant ²¹Ne and ³⁸Ar exposure ages.     

A photometric study of the polar ring galaxy UGC 5600

We analyze our BVR _c photometry for UGC 5600, a candidate polar ring galaxy, obtained with the 6-m telescope. We have confirmed the existence of an inner polar ring and show that the outer ring-shaped structure represents spiral arms; i.e., UGC 5600 belongs to the rare class of gas-rich spiral galaxies with inner polar rings.     

On model predictions of the power spectral density of radial solar p modes

We investigate the frequency dependence of the power spectral density of low-degree solar p modes by comparing measurements with the results of a stochastic-excitation model. In the past it was common practice to use the total power in such investigations. Using the maximum of the power spectral density instead provides a direct comparison with the measured mode heights in the observed power spectrum. This method permits a more careful calibration of the adjustable parameters in the excitation model, a model which we present here, for the first time, in a format that precisely and unambiguously relates the amplitudes of the modes of oscillation to the Reynolds stress in the equilibrium model. We find that errors in the theory of the linear mode damping rates, particularly at low frequency, have a dramatic impact on the predictions of the mode heights in the spectral density, whereas parameter changes in the stochastic excitation model, within a plausible domain of parameter space, have a comparatively small effect.     

Average velocity components in a rotating infinitely flattened self-gravitating system near an equilibrium state

The average radial and angular velocity components are obtained for a rotating two-dimensional self-gravitating system near an equilibrium state. First-order perturbation configurations of flaring straight bars emanating from the center provide examples of such systems. In these systems the average velocity field to first order is incompressible and irrotational. The second-order effects on the product of the average velocity components with the spatial density are essentially independent of the angular coordinate.     

Profiles of spectral lines of an accretion ring around a Kerr black hole

Profiles of spectral lines emitted from an accretion ring around an object with strong gravitational field should be affected by Doppler shift, gravitational redshift, and deflection of light. Taking these effects into account, precise line profile of a Keplerian ring around a Kerr black hole for a distant observer is obtained by solving the kinetic equation of photons.     

Contact Binaries: A Study of the Proximity Effects and Gravity Darkening Based on Kopal’s Fourier Method

A new method for the determination of the proximity effects and gravity darkening exponents in contact binaries of W UMa type is presented. The method is based on Kopal’s method of Fourier analysis of the light changes of eclipsing variables in the Frequency Domain. The method was applied to 36 W UMa systems for which geometric and photometric elements have been derived by the most powerful techniques. The derived values are very close to those predicted by the existing theory of radiative transfer or convective equilibrium.