南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的短期气候预测方法研究

利用合成及相关统计方法，研究冬季南海季风指数与850hPa风场、500hPa高度、海表温度、OLR等环境场的相互关系及其影响南海夏季风活动的可能机制。指出冬季南海季风指数及环境场的异常特征可以作为预测南海夏季风活动的前兆信号。在此基础上建立了预测南海夏季风爆发日期和强度的概念模型，1998－2001年的预测试验取得了较好成绩。     

藏南卡鲁雄峰枪勇冰川新冰期冰川发育探讨

山地冰川对气候变化响应敏感,全新世以来,冰川呈加速退缩趋势。冰川地貌是冰川变化最直接的证据。枪勇冰川发源于卡鲁雄峰,位于喜马拉雅山中段北坡雨影区,雅鲁藏布江以南,冰川末端在海拔5000 m附近,冰川面积约为6.63 km2。枪勇沟从外至内共保存有4期冰碛垄,其中以"大枪勇错"外侧的新冰期冰碛垄最为高大,终碛垄高约30 m,且形态清晰。文章基于野外观察及谷歌影像（Google Earth）上冰碛垄的分布范围,恢复并计算了新冰期时枪勇冰川面积约为10.0 km2,较现代冰川扩张了1.5倍。采用VOLTA模型计算了现代冰川的体积为0.21±0.04 km3,平均厚度约为31.7 m。基于纵剖线模型模拟了新冰期冰川表面高程,新冰期冰川平均厚度约为58.5 m,冰川体积约0.59±0.12 km3,是现代冰川体积的2.8倍,体积减小较面积退缩更为剧烈。利用积累区面积比率法（Accumulation Area Ratio Method,简称AAR）,采用AAR值为0.7±0.05,基于现代冰川表面高程和模拟的新冰期冰川表面高程,计算现代冰川和新冰期冰川的物质平衡线高度（Equilibrium Line Altitude,简称ELA）分别为5780±70 m和5660±100 m,新冰期时平衡线高度降低了约120 m。而不利用模型恢复新冰期表面高程时,平衡线降低值为240 m,可能高估约120 m。新冰期时,枪勇冰川扩张受区域降温控制,冰川前进可能是对4.2 ka冷事件的响应。冰碛垄形成时代和大枪勇错孢粉数据表明,冰川可能在2.5 ka左右已经退缩,2.2 ka时退缩加剧。     

Heterogeneous characteristics of streambed saturated hydraulic conductivity of the Touchet River,south eastern Washington,USA

Traditionally a streambed is treated as a layer of uniform thickness and low saturated hydraulic conductivity (K) in surface‐ and ground‐water studies. Recent findings have shown a high level of spatial heterogeneity within a streambed and such heterogeneity directly affects surface‐ and ground‐water exchange and can have ecological implications for biogeochemical transformations, nutrient cycling, organic matter decomposition, and reproduction of gravel spawning fish. In this study a detailed field investigation of K was conducted in two selected sites in Touchet River, a typical salmon spawning stream in arid south eastern Washington, USA. In‐stream slug tests were conducted to determine K following the Bouwer and Rice method. For the upper and lower sites, each 50 m long and 9 m wide and roughly 20 m apart, a sampling grid of 5 m longitudinally and 3 m transversely was used. The slug tests were performed for each horizontal coordinate at 0·3–0·45, 0·6–0·75, 0·9–1·05 and 1·2–1·35 m depth intervals unless a shallower impenetrable obstruction was encountered. Additionally, water levels were measured to obtain vertical hydraulic gradient (VHG) between each two adjacent depth intervals. Results indicated that K ranged over three orders of magnitude at both the upper and lower sites and differed between the two sites. At the upper site, K did not differ significantly among different depth intervals based on nonparametric statistical tests for mean, median, and empirical cumulative distribution, but the spatial pattern of K varied among different depth intervals. At the lower site, K for the 0·3–0·45 m depth interval differed statistically from those at other depth intervals, and no similar spatial pattern was found among different depth intervals. Zones of upward and downward water flow based on VHG also varied among different depth intervals, reflecting the complexities of the water flow regime. Detailed characterization of the streambed as attempted in this study should be helpful in providing information on spatial variations of streambed hydraulic properties as well as surface‐ and ground‐water interaction. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

桶形基础沉贯室内模型试验研究

桶形基础采用负压沉贯法施工,其贯入阻力与压桩,打桩等施工方法显著不同。本文介绍了在粉土和粉质粘土地层中的一组模型试验情况,认为负压法施工可显著降低粉土的抗贯阻力,但在粉质粘土中减阻效果不明显。     

APPLICATION OF THE CLUSTERING METHOD IN ANALYSING SHALLOW WATER MASSES AND MODIFIED WATER MASSES IN THE HUANGHAI SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA

The existing various T-S diagram methods of analysing water masses have a good effect on the ocean water mass analysis, but they have many limitations in analysing water masses in the shallow sea. The main point is that it is difficult to determine the core of original water type in the shallow sea area, so a large error may be carried into the determination of the boundaries of water mass. For example, when water masses are analyzed with the conventional analysis method of concentration mixture, we usually obtain a very     

Finite element analysis for a finite conductivity fracture in an infinite poroelastic medium

In the technology of oil recovery, oil production rate can be increased by generation of a vertical conductive fracture adjacent to the well-bore. In this paper the seepage flow and isothermal deformation in both the oil formation and the fracture are studied by modelling the formation as a two-dimensional infinite poroelastic medium and the conductive fracture as a one-dimensional poroelastic material, saturated by a one-phase compressible fluid. The plane strain condition is employed. Solutions for a growing conductive fracture and a stationary conductive fracture in the infinite medium are obtained by means of the finite element method based on a variational principle for the formation which can impose the governing equations of the fracture. Infinite elements are used outside the finite element domain. Numerical results indicate that the injection rate, the applied pressure and the crack mouth opening displacement at the well-bore oscillate during the propagation of the conductive fracture. The production rate of a well with the conductive fracture is compared with that of a well without the conductive fracture. Finally, a new definition of the conductivity coefficient for the conductive fracture is presented. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南海北部海区水团的判别分析

将判别分析应用于南海北部海区的水团分析。划分为八个水团:沿岸冲淡水团(F),近岸混合水团(M),暖表层水团(WS),表层水团(S),表—次层混合水团(SU),次层水团(U),次—中层混合水团(UI)和中层水团(I)。给出了各水团在四季代表月的Bayes多组判别的系数和参数。用资料检验判别的成效.冬季和春季可达95.90％以上,夏季为94.80％,秋季是全年最低值,为92.72％。讨论了造成错判的原因,并与Fisher判别作了比较。当测值维数较低时,建议选用Bayes判别。对八个水团以及各水团两两之间差异的显著性进行了检验,证实在每个季节中各水团之间的差异,都在高度置信水平(α=0.01)上具有显著性。因而,划分为八个水团是有实际意义的,其判别式的系数和参数,可用于实际的判别和预报。     

拱形波纹钢屋盖动力特性测试及分析

拱形波纹钢屋盖是一种新颖的金属拱形薄壳结构，在我国已经得到了广泛的应用。由于结构的复杂性，目前有关的理论研究尚不够深入，动力研究还很少有人涉及。以18m和30m两种跨度的W666型拱形波纹钢屋盖为研究对象，测试了拱在竖向平面内振动时的频率、振型及阻尼。在所提简化计算模型的基础上，采用有限元方法计算了结构的动力特性，其结果与试验数据符合较好。测试和分析结果为该结构的动力反应研究提供了方便。     

基于北斗卫星的预警信息发布技术研究及实现

利用北斗卫星短报文通信功能,以广播方式发布预警信息,可提高预警信息的覆盖范围和时效性, 填补我国海洋及陆地边远地区预警信息发布空白。但北斗卫星预警信息发布存在传输速率低、冗余信息量大、长预警信息发布成功率低的问题。该文对北斗卫星预警信息发布系统的系统结构、协议体系和关键问题开展研究,通过指挥机并联、预警信息编码、影响区域识别、联合补包等方法,解决了北斗卫星预警信息发布系统建设的关键问题。在此基础上,该文设计了预警信息网络发布协议、预警信息北斗发布协议和预警信息北斗传输协议,并开发了原型系统。