Direct forecasting of reservoir performance using production data without history matching

The conventional paradigm for predicting future reservoir performance from existing production data involves the construction of reservoir models that match the historical data through iterative history matching. This is generally an expensive and difficult task and often results in models that do not accurately assess the uncertainty of the forecast. We propose an alternative re-formulation of the problem, in which the role of the reservoir model is reconsidered. Instead of using the model to match the historical production, and then forecasting, the model is used in combination with Monte Carlo sampling to establish a statistical relationship between the historical and forecast variables. The estimated relationship is then used in conjunction with the actual production data to produce a statistical forecast. This allows quantifying posterior uncertainty on the forecast variable without explicit inversion or history matching. The main rationale behind this is that the reservoir model is highly complex and even so, still remains a simplified representation of the actual subsurface. As statistical relationships can generally only be constructed in low dimensions, compression and dimension reduction of the reservoir models themselves would result in further oversimplification. Conversely, production data and forecast variables are time series data, which are simpler and much more applicable for dimension reduction techniques. We present a dimension reduction approach based on functional data analysis (FDA), and mixed principal component analysis (mixed PCA), followed by canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to maximize the linear correlation between the forecast and production variables. Using these transformed variables, it is then possible to apply linear Gaussian regression and estimate the statistical relationship between the forecast and historical variables. This relationship is used in combination with the actual observed historical data to estimate the posterior distribution of the forecast variable. Sampling from this posterior and reconstructing the corresponding forecast time series, allows assessing uncertainty on the forecast. This workflow will be demonstrated on a case based on a Libyan reservoir and compared with traditional history matching.     

Very slow erosion rates and landscape preservation across the southwestern slope of the Ladakh Range,India

Erosion rates are key to quantifying the timescales over which different topographic and geomorphic domains develop in mountain landscapes. Geomorphic and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) methods were used to determine erosion rates of the arid, tectonically quiescent Ladakh Range, northern India. Five different geomorphic domains are identified and erosion rates are determined for three of the domains using TCN ¹⁰Be concentrations. Along the range divide between 5600 and 5700 m above sea level (asl), bedrock tors in the periglacial domain are eroding at 5.0 ± 0.5 to 13.1 ± 1.2 meters per million years (m/m.y.)., principally by frost shattering. At lower elevation in the unglaciated domain, erosion rates for tributary catchments vary between 0.8 ± 0.1 and 2.0 ± 0.3 m/m.y. Bedrock along interfluvial ridge crests between 3900 and 5100 m asl that separate these tributary catchments yield erosion rates <0.7 ± 0.1 m/m.y. and the dominant form of bedrock erosion is chemical weathering and grusification. Erosion rates are fastest where glaciers conditioned hillslopes above 5100 m asl by over‐steepening slopes and glacial debris is being evacuated by the fluvial network. For range divide tors, the long‐term duration of the erosion rate is considered to be 40–120 ky. By evaluating measured ¹⁰Be concentrations in tors along a model ¹⁰Be production curve, an average of ~24 cm is lost instantaneously every ~40 ky. Small (<4 km²) unglaciated tributary catchments and their interfluve bedrock have received very little precipitation since ~300 ka and the long‐term duration of their erosion rates is 300–750 ky and >850 ky, respectively. These results highlight the persistence of very slow erosion in different geomorphic domains across the southwestern slope of the Ladakh Range, which on the scale of the orogen records spatial changes in the locus of deformation and the development of an orogenic rain shadow north of the Greater Himalaya. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adjacent catchments with similar patterns of land use and climate have markedly different dissolved organic carbon concentration and runoff dynamics

Temporal patterns in specific runoff, dissolved organic carbon concentrations [DOC] and fluxes were examined during two periods: 1994–1997 (period 1) and 2007–2009 (period 2) in five adjacent tributary catchments of Lake Simcoe, the largest lake in southern Ontario, Canada. The catchments displayed similar patterns of land use change with increases in urbanization (5–16%) and forest cover (0.2–4%) and declines in agriculture (4–8%) between 1994 and 2008. Climate in the catchments was similar; temperature increased slightly, but no significant change in precipitation was observed. Despite similar pattern of climate and land use, runoff responses and tributary [DOC] were different across the catchments. Following a very dry year (i.e. 1999), runoff increased steadily until the end of record. We observed increased variability in tributary [DOC] and higher DOC exports in period 2. This led to ~10% increase in [DOC] and a 13% increase in flux between the two study periods. Between the two periods, [DOC] increased by 15% in spring and 25% in summer, whereas flux increased by 17% in spring and 48% in summer. [DOC] was consistently higher in the growing (summer + autumn) than the dormant (winter + spring, minus spring melt months) seasons, but no unique pattern or simple linear flow/concentrations relationships existed. This suggests complex spatial and temporal pattern to runoff controls on DOC and flow dynamics in adjacent catchments. We therefore caution against extrapolating from monitored to unmonitored catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reservoir construction from the Newberry Volcano EGS Demonstration

The Newberry Volcano EGS Demonstration in central Oregon tests recent technological advances designed to reduce the cost of power generated by EGS in a hot, dry well (NWG 55-29) drilled in 2008. An EGS reservoir was created by injecting large volumes of cold water, causing existing fractures to slip in shear (known as hydroshearing) generating the seismic waves that can be used to map fracture location and size. At the Newberry Demonstration the final injectivity ranged between 1.4 and 1.7 L/s/MPa a ~6x improvement over the initial injectivity of the well. The injectivity improvement and seismic analysis indicate that previously impermeable fractures were enhanced during the NWG 55-29 stimulation.     

Upper tertiary rocks from the continental shelf and slope off Southern Hawkes Bay

Sixteen rock samples were collected from the continental shelf and slope between Napier and Cape Turnagain, southern Hawkes Bay, most coming from offshore anticlinal ridges. Nine of the samples have a foraminiferal fauna of Upper Miocene and Pliocene age. The remainder cannot be dated, but most are probably of similar age. The foraminiferal. faunas are considered to have lived at depths ranging down to at least 1600 m deeper than the depth from which they were collected. Thus, the post‐depositional history of the samples includes tectonic uplift of similar magnitude since Upper Tertiary times. Because most of the samples arc very fine grained, unlike Recent sediments from ridges, it is suggested that the present regime of folding is largely post‐Pliocene in age.     

Non-Energy Resources,Connecticut Coastal Waters,Year 9 and 10 Activities

The Connecticut effort in year 9 of the Continental Margins Program concentrated on a 13.6-mi2 area south of the Housatonic River. This area was chosen for a side-scan sonar survey because it lies on and adjacent to the bathymetric expressions of two fairly large, subcropping, potential sources of coarse material. Previous seismic work in the area indicated that outcrops or subcrops of these potential source deposits could be delineated using their bathymetric expression. Owing to the limited resolution of the seismic data, a correlation between bottom type and underlying source deposits could not be made with the seismics alone. Results from the November 1993 side-scan survey show that although the source deposits have discernible bathymetric expressions, they are not cropping out as much as expected. As a result, bottom type is not necessarily determined by subcropping deposits in this particular area. Year 10 work was concentrated in Fishers Island Sound, where three areas of potential interest for near-shore gravel resources had previously been identified. These areas were surveyed, during the spring of 1996, using the RoxAnn Seabed Classification System. A small video camera and a Van Veen grab sampler were used to calibrate and verify the RoxAnn data. Although previous sampling had indicated the presence of gravel or gravelly sediment in all of the survey areas, the RoxAnn results showed less gravel than anticipated. Vibrant eelgrass beds and other habitat indicators were detected in all of the survey areas. Given the variable sediment results, and the high habitat potential of the areas surveyed, the likelihood of developing a sand and gravel supply from the near shore of Fishers Island Sound appears quite low.     

Lobster trap impact on coral reefs: Effects of wind‐driven trap movement

Commercial fishers report finding their lobster traps often great distances from their original location following major hurricanes. But traps also move during lesser wind events, such as during winter cold fronts. To assess trap impact on coral communities following winter storms, lobster traps were placed in hardbottom and reef habitats commonly used by commercial fishers in the Florida Keys, United States. Trap movement, percentage benthic faunal cover, and benthic faunal damage were assessed after 26 wind events occuring over three winters. Traps moved when storms with sustained winds greater than 15 knots (27.8 km/h) persisted for more than 2 days. Winter storms above this threshold moved buoyed traps a mean (±SE) distance of 3.63 ± 0.62 m, 3.21 ± 0.36 m, and 0.73 ± 0.15 m per trap and affected a mean area of 4.66 ± 0.76 m², 2.88 ± 0.29 m², and 1.06 ± 0.17 m², per trap at 4‐m, 8‐m, and 12‐m depths, respectively. Unbuoyed traps, simulating derelict traps, moved a mean distance of 0.43 ± 0.08 m and 0.44 ± 0.02 m, and affected a mean area of 0.77 ± 0.06 m² and 0.90 ± 0.08 m² per trap at 4‐m and 8‐m depths, respectively. Injuries caused by trap movement included scraped, fragmented, and dislodged sessile fauna, resulting in significant damage to stony coral, octocoral, and sponges. Overall, sessile fauna cover along the trap movement path was reduced from 45% to 31%, 51% to 41%, and 41% to 35% at the 4‐m, 8‐m, and 12‐m sites, respectively. Because of the large numbers of traps deployed and reported lost each season, damage to sessile fauna and loss of benthic faunal cover caused by traps needs to be considered to effectively protect coral reefs and manage essential fishery habitat in the future.     

Evidence for discrete subpopulations of sea perch (Helicolenus ercoides) across four fjords in Fiordland,New Zealand

In coastal populations of invertebrates and fishes, the distribution of discrete subpopulations is influenced by adult and larval dispersal, as well as by the effects of habitat heterogeneity on site fidelity or connectivity. Here, we examine evidence for spatial structure of sea perch, Helicolenus percoides, populations among four fjords in the Fiordland region of southwestern New Zealand. We examine patterns in adult morphology, length-at-age, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of muscle tissue, and trace elemental composition of whole otoliths as proxies for population isolation among the four inner fjord regions. A multivariate analysis of morphometrics reveals significant differences among populations from each of the four sites, suggesting existence of four distinct subpopulations. These patterns are consistent with observed differences in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N, and length-at-age estimates among the four subpopulations. Differences in whole otolith concentrations of Sr, Ba, Mg and Li, and high classification scores based on the whole otolith elemental fingerprint are also consistent with significant subdivision among areas. Patterns across all four markers are consistent with discrete subpopulation structure of adult sea perch among the four study sites. These data indicate that the newly implemented network of marine protected areas in Fiordland is likely to contain discrete populations of sea perch.