The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Lake Van basin,Turkey

The seismic hazard for the Lake Van basin is computed using a probabilistic approach, along with the earthquake data from 1907 to present. The spatial distribution of seismic events between the longitudes of 41–45° and the latitudes of 37.5–40°, which encompasses the region, indicates distinct seismic zones. The positions of these zones are well aligned with the known tectonic features such as the Tutak-Çald?ran fault zone, the Özalp fault zone, the Geva? fault zone, the Bitlis fault zone and Karl?ova junction where the North Anatolian fault zone and East Anatolian fault zone meet. These faults are known to have generated major earthquakes which strongly affected cities and towns such as Van, Mu?, Bitlis, Özalp, Muradiye, Çald?ran, Erci?, Adilcevaz, Ahlat, Tatvan, Geva? and Gürp?nar. The recurrence intervals of M _s ≥ 4 earthquakes were evaluated in order to obtain the parameters of the Gutenberg–Richter measurements for seismic zones. More importantly, iso-acceleration maps of the basin were produced with a grid interval of 0.05 degrees. These maps are developed for 100- and 475- year return periods, utilizing the domestic attenuation relationships. A computer program called Sistehan II was utilized to generate these maps.     

The impact of climate change on sea level rise at Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah–Sarawak

The sea level change along the Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah–Sarawak coastlines for the 21st century is investigated along the coastal areas of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah–Sarawak because of the expected climate change during the 21st century. The spatial variation of the sea level change is estimated by assimilating the global mean sea level projections from the Atmosphere–Ocean coupled Global Climate Model/General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations to the satellite altimeter observations along the subject coastlines. Using the assimilated AOGCM projections, the sea level around the Peninsular Malaysia coastline is projected to rise with a mean in the range of 0.066 to 0.141 m in 2040 and 0.253 m to 0.517 m in 2100. Using the assimilated AOGCM projections, the sea level around Sabah–Sarawak coastlines is projected to rise with a mean in the range of 0.115 m to 0.291 m in 2040 and 0.432 m to 1.064 m in 2100. The highest sea level rise occurs at the northeast and northwest regions in Peninsular Malaysia and at north and east sectors of Sabah in Sabah–Sarawak coastline. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -A Case Study in Turkey

In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ ) method and the Conditional Expectation Monte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of the Dalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station are hindcasted by use of multi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms. The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. in the new approach, for each randomly generated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading condition and the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters in short CPU durations of portable comput     

Detection of underground cavities with monofrequency electromagnetic tomography between boreholes in the frequency range 100 MHz to 1 GHz1

In order to detect underground cavities, we have designed a geophysical method based on the interaction of a monochromatic electromagnetic wave in the frequency band 100 MHz to 1 GHz with the ground situated between two boreholes. Three different approaches are involved in the design of this EM tomographic method.

• 1 The application of an ‘exact’ theory is used to calculate artificial data, based on an integral equation method. These data are inverted using a tomographic algorithm whose basic assumptions are rather coarse. The results show that, however, cavities can very well be detected and their position recovered.
• 2 Data are obtained with a physical reduced-scale model in a water tank, in which all parameters are known in advance. The inversion process confirms the validity of the method.
• 3 Underground cavities are actually detected.

The above approaches are described and discussed and results are shown. The equipment involved and its operation is quite simple: the surface devices are commercially available and only the transmitter and receiver antennae must be specially built. The method is shown to be quite efficient and its cost should be reasonably low.     

Seismic hazard map of the Middle East

The collaborative project Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME, 2010–2015) brought together scientists and engineers from the leading research institutions in the region and delivered state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment covering Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey. Their efforts have been materialized in the first homogenized seismic hazard model comprising earthquake catalogues, mapped active faults, strong motions databank, ground motion models and the estimated ground motion values for various intensity measure types and relevant return periods (e.g. 475–5000 years). The reference seismic hazard map of the Middle East, depicts the mean values of peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years. A full resolution poster is provided with this contribution.     

Water and sediment quality assessment in the mid-Black Sea coast of Turkey using multivariate statistical techniques

The aim of this study was to investigate the water and sediment quality in the mid-Black Sea coast of Turkey. The samples were collected from six stations during 2007. Investigated parameters were total carbon (TC), total inorganic carbon (TIC), total organic carbon (TOC), ammonium-nitrogen (NH₄-N), nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃-N), nitrite-nitrogen (NO₂-N), total phosphorus (TP), sulphate, total hardness, methylene blue active substances (MBAS), phenol, adsorbable organic halogens (AOX), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and electrical conductivity (EC) in water samples and TC, TIC, TOC, TP, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), redox potential (Eh) and water content (WC) in sediment samples. Different multivariate statistical techniques were used to evaluate variations in surface water and sediment quality. Principal component analysis helped in identifying the factors or sources responsible for water and sediment quality variations. Five factors were found responsible for 87.63% of the total variance in the surface waters. In sediments, three factors explained 84.73% of the observed total variance. Cluster analysis classified the monitoring sites into two groups based on similarities of water and sediment quality characteristics.     

Spatial Variation of the Precipitation Chemistry in the Thrace Region of Turkey

Pollutants affect not only the environment in which they originate since they are also transported by air currents to other locations. For this reason, air pollution is a global problem for all countries and the air and water quality need to be monitored carefully. More information on precipitation chemistry is required to determine the source of pollution as well as its effects on the ecosystems. In this study, precipitation chemistry has been analyzed for the first time by using simple bulk collectors located at four different sites in Northwest Turkey for a period of two years. About 650 sequential rainwater samples were collected and analyzed for pH, electrical conductivity, anions such as , , Cl^?, and cations such as Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, and . The selected sites were under the effect of different environmental factors. Our results showed that the highest and concentrations were measured in the Northwest of the research area. Additionally, it has been found that Ca²⁺ ions are abundant within all rainwater samples.     

Active tectonics of the Ortaköy fissure-ridge-type travertines: implications for the Quaternary stress state of the neotectonic structures of the Central Anatolia,Turkey

Several geothermal fields are located in a NE-SW trend along a structural lineament around the Sivas basin; one of those is the Ortaköy travertines situated 83?km south-west of Sivas. There are eight fissure-ridge-type travertine localities in the area, although eroded-sheet-type travertines constitute many of the travertines of the region. By evaluating the rocks of the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene K?z?l?rmak Formation, it was determined that fissure axes developed within fissure-ridge-type travertines, and that the structural elements obtained from satellite images together with the fissures that form the fissure-ridge-type travertines are shear and tension fissures, and the NE-SW-oriented opening of the fissures, were a result of NW-SE-directed compression, which was also responsible for the formation of the Sivas Backthrust. Ground-penetrating radar studies have shown that the thickness of fissure fills within the fissure-ridge-type travertines of the Ortaköy geothermal field increase with depth, and that the hydrothermal fluids which brought about the formation of the travertines moved surfaceward via fissure systems. The results of U/Th radiometric dating indicate that the youngest travertine in the region is 17,761 (_?268/⁺²⁶⁹) years old and the oldest 128,286 (_?3537/⁺³⁶⁶²) years old. Using the widths of banded travertines within the fissure-ridge-type travertines as well as these age results, the opening rate of the Sivas Basin was determined to be .06 (_?.01/^+.05) mm/year.