On reconstruction of the Ito-like equation from persistent time series

The Langevin equation with finite-range persistence was introduced as a macroscopic model of various geophysical phenomena. The modified histogram procedure (MHP) of reconstruction of the equation from time series was proposed. An efficiency of MHP was tested on artificial persistent time series (with short and long-tail distributions) generated by different Ito-like equations. For an exemplary geophysical time series, the appropriate Ito-like equation was reconstructed.     

水文循环模拟中蒸散发估算方法综述(英文)

Actual evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance.Evapotranspiration plays a key role in simulating hydrological effect of climate change,and a review of evapotranspiration estimation methods in hydrological models is of vital importance.This paper firstly summarizes the evapotranspiration estimation methods applied in hydrological models and then classifies them into the integrated converting methods and the classification gathering methods by their mechanism.Integrated converting methods are usually used in hydrological models and two differences exist among them:one is in the potential evaporation estimation methods,while the other in the function for defining relationship between potential evaporation and actual evapotranspiration.Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty,simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models.Different evapotranspiration calculation methods are used depending on the complexity of the hydrological model,and importance and difficulty in the selection of the most suitable evapotranspiration methods is discussed.Finally,this paper points out the prospective development trends of the evapotranspiration estimating methods in hydrological modeling.     

水文循环模拟中下垫面参数化方法综述

针对水文循环模拟中地形、土地利用覆被等流域下垫面参数化方法众多,且模拟效果相差较大的现状。本文首先根据水文循环模拟中产汇流原理,对常用水文循环模拟中产汇流模拟方法进行汇总和分类;在此基础上,对产流模拟中的降水径流相关系数法、蓄满产流和超渗产流等及汇流模拟中的等流时线、单位线、圣维南方程、马斯京根法等主要模拟方法中地形、土地利用覆被和土壤类型参数化方法进行分析和讨论;根据其中流域地形、土地利用覆被和土壤类型参数化方法对机理过程的描述程度,将其分为无明确表示类、率定型参数类、确定型参数类、物理过程表达类;进而阐明不同参数化方法中流域地形、土地利用覆被和土壤类型对水文循环模拟结果的响应和贡献。最后回归模型本质,阐述水文循环模拟中流域下垫面参数化方法中存在经验关系对复杂机理简单表述的合理性和物理机理过程描述的欠缺性问题,并预估未来水文循环模拟中下垫面参数化方法朝着简洁实用化和复杂机理化两个方向发展。     

Extreme rainfalls in Eastern Himalaya and southern slope of Meghalaya Plateau and their geomorphologic impacts

This paper presents the detailed rainfall characteristics of 3 key areas located in the eastern monsoon India: the margin of Darjeeling Himalaya, the margin of Bhutanese Himalaya and the Cherrapunji region at the southern slope of Meghalaya Upland. All these areas are sensitive to changes but differ in annual rainfall totals (2000–4000 mm, 4000–6000 m and 6000–23,000 mm respectively) and in the frequency of extreme rainfalls. Therefore the response of geomorphic processes is different, also due to various human impact. In the Darjeeling Himalaya the thresholds may be passed 2–3 times in one century and the system may return to the former equilibrium. At the margin of western Bhutanese Himalaya in 1990s, the clustering of three events caused an acceleration in the transformation and formation of a new trend of evolution, especially in the piedmont zone. In the Cherrapunji of Meghalaya region in the natural conditions the effects of dozens of extreme rainfalls every year were checked by the dense vegetation cover. After deforestation and extensive land use the fertile soil was removed and either the exposed bedrock or armoured debris top layer protect the surface against degradation and facilitate only rapid overland flow. A new “sterile” system has been formed.     

Tidal Heating and Convection in the Medium Sized Icy Satellites

Surface features of some icy satellites indicate that the satellites are modified due to the internally driven tectonic activity. Convection could be one of the processes responsible for the formation of the surface features. The potential sources of energy inside the satellites are discussed. For the medium sized icy satellites the radiogenic and tidal heat sources seem to be of primary importance. To investigate the problem, a 3D model of convection is developed based on the Navier–Stokes equation, the equation of thermal conductivity, the equation of continuity, and the equation of state. The model includes both the tidal and the radiogenic heating. It can be applied to the homogeneous, non-differentiated medium sized satellites. The 3D formulae for tidal heat generation and stress tensor based on the results of Peale and Cassen (1978) and others are applied. A new dimensionless number C _t is introduced. It measures the relative importance of tidal and radiogenic heat sources. The systematic investigation of the steady-state convection is performed for different values of the Rayleigh number and for 0C _t 1. The results indicate that the convection pattern for low Rayleigh number driven by tidal heating in the medium sized icy satellites consists of two cells. The pattern of tidally driven convection is oriented, that is, the regions of downward motion are situated at the center of the near- and of the far-side of the satellite.     

The magmatic activity on asteroids

The tidal effects on a fractured asteroid are considered. The asteroid is assumed to consist of two parts. In gravitational field of another body the motion of one part of the asteroid in relation to second part may be initiated. The necessary conditions for this motion are determined and amount of heat that can be generated is calculated for some cases. It is suggested that metamorphic episodes found in some meteorites are the results of such heating.     

Determination of Surface Precipitation Type Based on the Data Fusion Approach

Hazardous events related to atmospheric precipitation depend not only on the intensity of surface precipitation,but also on its type.Uncertainty related to determination of the precipitation type(PT)leads to financial losses in many areas of human activity,such as the power industry,agriculture,transportation,and many more.In this study,we use machine learning(ML)algorithms with the data fusion approach to more accurately determine surface PT.Based on surface synoptic observations,ERA5 reanalysis,and radar data,we distinguish between liquid,mixed,and solid precipitation types.The study domain considers the entire area of Poland and a period from 2015 to 2017.The purpose of this work is to address the question:“How can ML techniques applied in observational and NWP data help to improve the recognition of the surface PT?”Despite testing 33 parameters,it was found that a combination of the near-surface air temperature and the depth of the warm layer in the 0-1000 m above ground level(AGL)layer contains most of the signal needed to determine surface PT.The accrued probability of detection for liquid,solid,and mixed PTs according to the developed Random Forest model is 98.0%,98.8%,and 67.3%,respectively.The application of the ML technique and data fusion approach allows to significantly improve the robustness of PT prediction compared to commonly used baseline models and provides promising results for operational forecasters.