On the bogussing of tropical cyclones in numerical models: A comparison of vortex profiles

Summary At the resolutions currently in use, and with the sparse oceanic data coverage, numerical analyses cannot adequately represent tropical cyclone circulations for use in numerical weather prediction models. In many cases there is no circulation present at all. Most numerical weather prediction centers therefore employ a bogussing scheme to force a tropical cyclone vortex into the numerical analysis. The standard procedure is to define a synthetic data distribution based on an analytically prescribed vortex, which is passed to the analysis scheme as a set of high quality observations.In this study, four commonly used bogus vortices are examined by comparing resultant forecast tracks in an environment at rest, and in a background flow that simulates a typical monsoon trough-subtropical ridge structure. There are three main findings, each of which has significance for operational tropical cyclone track prediction. First, great care is needed in the choice of the characteristics of the bogus vortex, such as the radius and magnitude of the maximum wind. Second, the tropical cyclone trajectories can be very sensitive to their initial position in the idealised environment. Third, the bogus vortex can substantially influence the environment, especially over longer time periods and for vortices of larger size.With 9 Figures     

Analysis of one-dimesional wave propagation in a fluid-saturated finite soil column

Biot's dynamic equations of motion for one-dimensional wave propagation in a fluid-saturated linear elastic isotropic soil are solved using Laplace transformation followed by numerical inversion and the results compared with a direct finite element formulation. A soil column of finite dimension subjected to velocity boundary conditions is analysed, allowing for reflection of waves from boundaries. Comparison of time histories at given points along the column shows that the finite element solution gives good agreement with the Laplace transform solution for low as well as high drag.     

A Local Example of Land‐Use Change: Southern Illinois—1807, 1938, and 1993*

This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest.     

Conservation as disturbance: Upheaval and livelihood diversification near Tarangire National Park,northern Tanzania

Recent studies have identified poverty reduction near parks and protected areas, findings that challenge an extensive literature on the social burdens associated with protected areas. These studies move the discussion on the social dynamics of conservation forward, however, they do not offer insight into the underlying mechanisms that shape household-level outcomes such as income and wealth. By focusing on protected areas as centers of uncertainty, upheaval, and disturbance, this study examines the character and incidence of livelihood diversification within communities near Tarangire National Park in northern Tanzania compared to communities far from the park. Livelihood diversification is well understood as a coping and/or risk mitigation strategy pursued in response to various types of shocks, and uncertainty more generally. This study draws on mixed methodologies to construct multivariate statistical models to estimate the effect of proximity to the park on measures of livelihood diversification. The results indicate that proximity to park is strongly correlated with livelihood diversification, suggesting that households near the park are adapting to opportunities and constraints and may be seeking to reduce variance in income and wealth in response to disturbances and uncertainty associated with the park.     

Reconstructing landscape and vegetation through multiple proxy indicators: A geoarchaeological examination of the St. Louis site,Saskatchewan, Canada

The St. Louis site, located in the Plains–Parkland transition zone along the South Saskatchewan River, in Saskatchewan, Canada, is a multiple‐component site consisting of stratified floodplain alluvium with multiple, weakly developed soils. Human occupation at the site spans the Late Paleoindian to Middle Precontact periods (10,000–5,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), a time poorly represented archaeologically on the Northern Plains. The dearth of early–middle Holocene‐age archaeological sites is often attributed to reduced inhabitability of the Northern Plains during the Hypsithermal, a period of maximum aridity and limited water availability. Stable isotope and phytolith data from the site indicate increased temperatures during the Hypsithermal and an expansion of Northern Plains grasslands into north‐central Saskatchewan. Although characterized by increased xeric conditions, human occupation at the St. Louis site, as well as the predominance of C₃ grasses, attests to the habitability of Northern Plains river systems during this time period. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Australian east coast rainfall decline related to large scale climate drivers

Rainfall on the subtropical east coast of Australia has declined at up to 50?mm per decade since 1970. Wavelet analysis is used to investigate eight station and four station-averaged rainfall distributions along Australia??s subtropical east coast with respect to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the southern annular mode (SAM). The relationships are examined further using composite atmospheric circulation anomalies. Here we show that the greatest rainfall variability occurs in the 15?C30?year periodicity of the 1948?C1975 or ??cool?? phase of the IPO when the subtropical ridge is located sufficiently poleward for anomalous moist onshore airflow to occur together with high ENSO rainfall variability and high, negative phase, SAM variability. Thus, the mid-latitude westerlies are located at their most equatorward position in the Australian region. This maximizes tropospheric interaction of warm, moist tropical air with enhanced local baroclinicity over the east coast, and hence rainfall.     

Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model

Summary Knowledge of the variability in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and distribution is essential in determining the possible impact of natural or human-induced climate change. This variability can be investigated using the available TC data bases and by carrying out long-term climate model simulations for both past and future climates. A coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model (referred to here as the OU-CGCM) is described and applied with a higher resolution (50 km) nested domain in the southwest Pacific region. Six-member ensembles of simulations with the OU-CGCM have been run for 80 years, from 1970 to 2050. During the period 1970–2000, the OU-CGCM runs were compared with the observed TC data base. For the period 2000–2050, two ensembles of simulations were performed, one with constant greenhouse gas concentrations and the second with increasing greenhouse gases. The OU-CGCM simulated well the observed TC frequency and distribution in the southwest Pacific during the period 1970–2000. It also produced clear interannual and interdecadal TC variability in both the fixed and enhanced greenhouse gas simulations during the period 2000–2050. The variability in TC frequencies was associated with the typical atmospheric and SST anomaly patterns that occur in periods of quiet and active TC frequencies. The main findings from the enhanced greenhouse gas scenario for the period 2000–2050 are: no change in the mean decadal number of TCs relative to the control run, but a marked increase of about 15% in the mean decadal number of TCs in the most severe WMO categories 4 and 5; the likelihood of TCs during the next 50-year period that are more intense than ever previously experienced in the Australian region; a poleward extension of TC tracks; and a poleward shift of over 2 degrees of latitude in the TC genesis region.