Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.     

Factors influencing trace element needs and tolerances in man

Concern is voiced about the hazards of heavy metal pollution of the sea and trace elements in food. In fact many of these substances are essential for human health and occasionally the margin between minimum needs and maximum tolerance is a very slender one. The chemical form of the trace element and the interactions between different trace elements included in the diet are also often important in deciding between health and hazard. Monitoring foods and the environment for the effects of pollution therefore demands subtlety and an awareness of this complexity which is usually missing.     

A glancing incidence solar telescope for the soft x-ray region

This paper describes the instrumentation of an Aerobee rocket (NASA 4.95 GS) which was launched from White Sands Missile Range on May 20th 1966, to observe the Sun in the soft X-ray region. The experiment package, which was pointed at the sun by a control system stabilized about all three axes, carried two Wolter type I glancing incidence telescopes to photograph the sun in wavelength regions (determined by bandpass filters) between 3 and 75 Å, and two proportional counters to obtain flux data and rough spectral shapes in the regions 2–11 Å and 8–20 Å. The spatial resolution obtained was about 20 arc seconds. Limb brightening and polar darkening are very pronounced at the longer wavelengths. A tuft of emission was observed at the North Pole in addition to an arch-like structure on the NW limb. Several of the photographs are presented, and some preliminary results are discussed.     

Effect of pressure, temperature, and oxygen fugacity on the metal-silicate partitioning of Te, Se, and S: Implications for earth differentiation

We have measured liquid Fe metal-liquid silicate partitioning (D_i) of tellurium, selenium, and sulfur over a range of pressure, temperature, and oxygen fugacity (1-19 GPa, 2023-2693 K, fO₂ −0.4 to −5.5 log units relative to the iron-wüstite buffer) to better assess the role of metallic melts in fractionating these elements during mantle melting and early Earth evolution. We find that metal-silicate partitioning of all three elements decreases with falling FeO activity in the silicate melt, and that the addition of 5-10 wt% S in the metal phase results in a 3-fold enhancement of both D_Te and D_Se. In general, Te, Se, and S all become more siderophile with increasing pressure, and less siderophile with increasing temperature, in agreement with previous work. In all sulfur-bearing experiments, D_Te is greater than D_Se or D_S, with the latter two being similar over a range of P and T. Parameterized results are used to estimate metal-silicate partitioning at the base of a magma ocean which deepens as accretion progresses, with the equilibration temperature fixed at the peridotite liquidus. We show that during accretion, Te behaves like a highly siderophile element, with expected core/mantle partitioning of >10⁵, in contrast to the observed core/mantle ratio of ∼100. Less extreme differences are observed for Se and S, which yielded core/mantle partitioning 100- to 10 times higher, respectively, than the observed value. Addition of ∼0.5 wt% of a meteorite component (H, EH or EL ordinary chondrite) is sufficient to raise mantle abundances to their current level and erase the original interelement fractionation of metal-silicate equilibrium.     

Edge-to-Stem Variability in Wet-Canopy Evaporation From an Urban Tree Row

Evaporation from wet-canopy (\(E_\mathrm{C}\)) and stem (\(E_\mathrm{S}\)) surfaces during rainfall represents a significant portion of municipal-to-global scale hydrologic cycles. For urban ecosystems, \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) dynamics play valuable roles in stormwater management. Despite this, canopy-interception loss studies typically ignore crown-scale variability in \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and assume (with few indirect data) that \(E_\mathrm{S}\) is generally \({<}2\%\) of total wet-canopy evaporation. We test these common assumptions for the first time with a spatially-distributed network of in-canopy meteorological monitoring and 45 surface temperature sensors in an urban Pinus elliottii tree row to estimate \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) under the assumption that crown surfaces behave as “wet bulbs”. From December 2015 through July 2016, 33 saturated crown periods (195 h of 5-min observations) were isolated from storms for determination of 5-min evaporation rates ranging from negligible to 0.67 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\). Mean \(E_\mathrm{S}\) (0.10 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)) was significantly lower (\(p < 0.01\)) than mean \(E_\mathrm{C}\) (0.16 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)). But, \(E_\mathrm{S}\) values often equalled \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and, when scaled to trunk area using terrestrial lidar, accounted for 8–13% (inter-quartile range) of total wet-crown evaporation (\(E_\mathrm{S}+E_\mathrm{C}\) scaled to surface area). \(E_\mathrm{S}\) contributions to total wet-crown evaporation maximized at 33%, showing a general underestimate (by 2–17 times) of this quantity in the literature. Moreover, results suggest wet-crown evaporation from urban tree rows can be adequately estimated by simply assuming saturated tree surfaces behave as wet bulbs, avoiding problematic assumptions associated with other physically-based methods.     

Pfiesteria shumwayae (Pfiesteriaceae) in New Zealand

Pfiesteria shumwayae Steidinger et Burkholder is now known to be present in New Zealand and occurs in estuaries around the country. The presence of Pfiesteria was initially determined by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)‐based detection assay, using oligonucleotide primers targeted at ribosomal DNA extracted from estuarine water and sediments. Presence was confirmed by isolation from fresh sediments in the presence offish (Oreochromis mossambicus), followed by identification by scanning electron microscopy. The New Zealand isolates of P. shumwayae were ichthyotoxic in bioassays, but there is no historic evidence offish kills in New Zealand associated with the dinoflagellate.     

Authorship,Collaboration, and Gender: Fifteen Years of Publication Productivity in Selected Geography Journals

In academia, publication productivity, defined as the number of peer-reviewed articles published and the frequency of citations, is a primary factor in the assessment of tenure and promotion. One of the most cited gender differences in academia is the “productivity puzzle,” which suggests that women publish less than men, thereby affecting every aspect of a woman's academic career. Peer-reviewed articles published in the Annals of the Association of American Geographers (Annals) and The Professional Geographer (PG) between 1995 and 2006, and in four subdisciplinary journals between 2005 and 2009, as well as citation reports, were used to explore whether gender differences are present in publication productivity. Gender differences were evident in the proportion of women authors, the frequency of collaboration, and the number of citations across a broad range of prestigious geographic journals. For all journals studied, women were underrepresented, especially in the authorship positions that equate to notions of respect and merit. Although the number of collaborative articles increased during the study period, single-authored papers are the dominant mode of publication for both men and women for most geographic journals. The authorship patterns for frequently cited articles generally mirror those for all articles. Because the frequency of collaborative publication was high for women, the dual trends of a general increase in publication collaboration and increasing participation of women in academic geography bodes well for increased female productivity as it relates to publishing. Nevertheless, it is important to note that, currently, males as lead or single authors represent the predominant voice of geography within the journals examined in this study.