Forest Fire Alert System: a Geo Web GIS prioritization model considering land susceptibility and hotspots – a case study in the Carajás National Forest,Brazilian Amazon

To increase the monitoring potential of forest fires, an alert classification methodology using satellite-mapped hotspots has been established to help forest managers in the prioritization of which hotspot to be verified in the field, thus potentially improving the distribution of fire-fighting resources. A computer application was developed based on web-distributed geographical information technology whose main function is to interact automatically generated satellite hotspots and risk areas indicated in fire-susceptibility maps and classify them into five alert levels. The location of the hotspots is available continuously every 4 h, and a susceptibility map is produced daily through map algebra algorithm, which uses static (topography, vegetation and land use) and dynamic (weather) variables. Every process runs through automated geoprocessing routines. The methodology was tested during the dry period of 2007 in the Carajás National Forest, in the Brazilian Amazon, within an area of 400,000 ha. It is a critical area constantly threatened by fires caused by invasions and deforestation owing to intense agribusiness advances and mining activities in its surroundings. This situation results in observations of many hotspots inside the study area for the same day and almost the same time period, in places of extreme opposites, demanding complex rapid analysis and hindering the decision of the displacement of fire-fighting teams. Further, a major mining company operates within the National Forest area, maintaining actions of protection as part of its environmental mining license. Results are presented under three aspects: (i) the credibility of the daily susceptibility map (algorithm), which showed strong correlation between areas of greatest risks and the confirmed forest fires; (ii) the reliability of hotspots (alert levels), confirming 71% of fires; (iii) accuracy in the decision of which hotspot to be checked, which revealed the same number of verifications at different alert levels, 82% confirmed alert 5 hotspots (maximum) and only 50% from alert 1 (minimum), resulting in faster fire-fighting actions, minimizing burned areas and, in some cases, allowing fire control before its spreading. Therefore, the methodology demonstrated that GIS routines are able to determine the relationship between a reality-based, interpreted susceptibility map of the area and satellite-generated hotspots, highlighting the ones of highest hazard level through the alert classification, becoming an important tool to help decisions from the fire-control center, especially for high-risk regions. The methodology may be extrapolated to other forested areas.     

An OLS regression model for context-aware tile prefetching in a web map cache

The increasing popularity of web map services has motivated the development of more scalable services in the spatial data infrastructures. Tiled map services have emerged as a scalable alternative to traditional map services. Instead of rendering map images on the fly, a collection of pre-generated image tiles can be served very fast from a server-side cache. However, during the start-up of the service, the cache is initially empty and users experience a poor quality of service. Tile prefetching attempts to improve hit rates by proactively fetching map images without waiting for client requests.

While most popular prefetching policies in traditional web caching consider only the previous access history to make predictions, significant improvements could be achieved in web mapping by taking into account the background geographic information.

This work proposes a regressive model to predict which areas are likely to be requested in the future based on spatial cross-correlation between an unconstrained catalog of geographic features and a record of past cache requests. Tiles that are anticipated to be most frequently requested can be pre-generated and cached for faster retrieval. Trace-driven simulations with several million cache requests from two different nation-wide public web map services in Spain demonstrate that accurate predictions and performance gains can be obtained with the proposed model.     

Experimental investigation on the seismic performance of masonry buildings using shaking table testing

Masonry buildings worldwide exhibited severe damage and collapse in recent strong earthquake events. It is known that their brittle behavior, which is mainly due to the combination of low tensile strength, large mass and insufficient connection between structural elements, is the main limitation for their structural implementation in residential buildings. A new construction system for masonry buildings using concrete blocks units and trussed reinforcement is presented here and its seismic behavior is validated through shaking table tests. Dynamic tests of two geometrically identical two-story reduced scale (1:2) models have been carried out, considering artificial accelerograms compatible with the elastic response spectrum defined by the Eurocode 8. The first model was reinforced with the new proposed system while the second model was built with unreinforced masonry. The experimental analysis encompasses local and global parameters such as cracking patterns, failure mechanisms, and in-plane and out-of-plane behavior in terms of displacements and lateral drifts from where the global dynamic behavior of the two buildings is analyzed comparatively. Finally, behavior factors for the design recommendations in case of unreinforced masonry are also evaluated.     

Numerical relationships between magnetic parameters measured in Quaternary sediments and global paleoclimatic proxies

The complexity of most geological and geophysical problems prompts sometimes the use of non linear mathematical methods to handle them. An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks, is applied here to study a paleoclimate section from the Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Mucubají (western Venezuela). The purpose of this work is to find a set of numerical relationships that could predict the possible connections between oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) values from two different locations in the northern hemisphere (Ammersee in southern Germany and an ice core from the Greenland Ice Core Project — GRIP) and rock-magnetic parameters measured in Mucubají samples (i.e. mass-specific magnetic susceptibility — χ, magnetic remanence S-ratio, mass-specific saturation isothermal remanent magnetization — SIRM and anhysteretic remanent magnetization — ARM). The best inferences in terms of coefficient of determionation R² and the Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) are obtained using those magnetic data as input that include information about magnetite grain size distributions, e.g., SIRM and ARM in FIS structures [1χ, 4ARM] and [4ARM, 1SIRM]. A comparison between Ammersee and GRIP actual data, as well as their corresponding inferences for the FIS structure [4ARM, 1SIRM], reveals a reasonable good inference of global trends for both records, overlooking the regional and/or local paleoclimate forcings that might have affected Ammersee. A better correlation between global isotope paleoclimate records and magnetic proxies, is perhaps prevented by the role played by local and regional paleoclimate and tectonism in Mucubají. We also argue that the ratio of ARM over SIRM appears to be related in a complex way to the onset and to the end of the Younger Dryas. Our novel approach to the assessment of a specific paleoclimate case study shows the potential of the ANFIS technique in solving problems where traditional univariate and multivariate linear regression methods could prove inadequate.     

Runoff from soils under different management and simulated rainfall regimes in southern Brazil

Abstract

Surface runoff and drainage were evaluated for southern Brazilian soils subjected to different rainfall intensities and management practices. Soils received up to four applications of simulated rainfall in sequences with one application per day. Seven lysimeters, each of 1 m³ volume, were used to measure drainage volume, with measurement of initial and final water content, times at which surface runoff and lysimeter drainage began, and the volume rates of flow. At the end of the second test, soils were subjected to two levels of disturbance (denoted by low and high soil movement) by opening furrows. These cultivation treatments altered the times at which lysimeter surface runoff and drainage were initiated, the rates of surface runoff, the final infiltration and internal drainage, and the components of the water balance throughout the series of trials. Mean times at which surface runoff was initiated in lysimeters subjected to greater soil disturbance were longer than those with little soil disturbance. Final infiltration rates were greater in lysimeters with little soil disturbance. It was also found that lysimeter surface runoff generation was influenced by the state of development of maize grown in the lysimeter.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor G. Mahé     

Disentangling the role of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during the Amazonian droughts in 2015

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - El Niño events lead to worldwide changes in the inter-annual variability of precipitation, and more in particular to South America droughts. In the year...     

Rockfall risk assessment to persons travelling in vehicles along a road: the case study of the Amalfi coastal road (southern Italy)

The paper deals with the assessment of rockfall risk to persons travelling in vehicles along the SS163 road, an important transportation corridor supporting a high vehicle traffic within the well-known tourist area of the Amalfi Coast (southern Italy). To this aim, the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) procedures, in this latter case for three rockfall risk scenarios, are applied. With reference to a large portion (33.820 out of a total of 50.365 km) of the SS163 road, the obtained QRA results highlight that, although the estimated individual risk to life satisfies the adopted tolerable risk criterion, the computed societal risk cannot be tolerated. Starting from this result, site-specific QRA analyses—carried out with reference to some road sections chosen on the basis of the RHRS results—allow the detection of the SS163 portions where the individual risk to life exceeds the tolerable risk threshold and, then, the recourse to mitigation measures could reveal necessary. In this regard, RHRS and QRA methods can be considered complementary tools in prioritizing the road sections where construction funds can be profitably spent in order to mitigate the rockfall risk with reference to both direct consequences (life loss) and indirect ones (traffic delay and diversions).     

Morphosedimentary analysis of the Limoeiro Stream (center-northern Minas Gerais State,Brazil): clues to the eastward tilting of southern Espinhaco range sites

The morphosedimentary evolution of a sector of the southern Espinhaco range (northern Minas Gerais State, Brazil) and its regional neotectonic setting are presented herein. The studied site is a stream at base level flowing along the western border of the range. Its identification was accomplished by using remote sensing techniques including the analysis of 3D slope models generated with shuttle radar topography mission images. The main geomorphological features of the identified site were surveyed in a 1:500 scale. In addition, seven stratigraphic logs are described. A regional geologic compilation and facies diagrams were used as a basis for the integration of the geomorphological and stratigraphic data, which produced some conclusions about the recent tectonic reactivations at the eastern border of Sao Francisco Craton. The results point to a local eastward tilting of the Espinhaco range. This fact is in accordance with previous findings in neighboring areas and results in the asymmetric evolution of the fluvial valley, as well as the regional relief.     

Is the cutting of oil contaminated marshes an efficient clean-up technique in a subtropical estuary?

Cutting and removal of oil-impacted marsh plants are still used worldwide as a clean-up and recovery technique. To experimentally test the efficacy of cutting and removing marsh plants under subtropical conditions, we simulated an oil spill (Bunker MF-180) in Spartina alterniflora marshes and compared the responses of plant height, biomass, density of culms and number of flowering plants in high and low energy areas in Paranaguá Bay (S Brazil) for about 9 months. Cutting and removal were inefficient in promoting or accelerating the recovery of the impacted areas. Cut or uncut impacted marshes fully recovered within 6 months, both in low and high energy areas. Plant cutting should be practiced only when there is an effective risk of contamination of groundwater near urban areas, when obvious aesthetical issues are involved in areas of touristic interest or when there are real short-term conservation risks to threatened species.