Modeling basin-scale hydrology in support of physical climate and global biogeochemical studies: An example using the Zambezi River

Human activity is an important agent defining the contemporary hydrologic cycle. We have documented the potential impacts of impoundment, land use change and climate change on the Zambezi River system in southern Africa and found that they can be substantial. A full analysis requires construction and parameterization of a simulation for the entire catchment. This paper develops a strategy for implementing catchment-scale models of the major hydrologic processes operating within the basin. A coherent data set for calibrating the models has also been assembled. The algorithms consist of a Water Balance (WBM) and a Water Transport (WTM) operating at 1/2^o spatial scale and at monthly timesteps. These models transform complex patterns of regional climatology into estimates of soil water, evapotranspiration, runoff, and discharge through rivers of various size. The models are dependent on the characteristics of the terrestrial surface, principally soil texture and land cover. A simulated river network is also required. Additional tabular data sets are essential for model testing and calibration. These include subcatchment areas; observed river discharge at selected points; flooding, storage and loss characteristics of major wetlands; floodwave translation; and, volume, surface area, withdrawal and evaporative losses from impoundments. An important design consideration for the numerous impoundments in the Zambezi requires an understanding of the seasonal variation in discharge, in particular how it might respond to climate and land use change. The research strategy offered here lays a framework for addressing such issues. Although the primary focus of this work is hydrologic, we discuss how the model can be extended to consider constituent transport and biogeochemical cycling issues at the continental scale.     

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.