Probability of combined high sea levels and large rains in Malmö, Sweden,southern Öresund

Observations of sea level and precipitation in Malmö, Sweden in the southeastern part of the sound Öresund have been used to estimate the probabilities of local compound events of high sea level and large daily and hourly rains. There are observations of sea level and daily rains extending back to 1930. The observations of short‐term rainfall are from 1980 and onwards. Most large rainfalls come in the summer, while the highest sea levels are in the autumn and in the winter. The highest observed sea level is about 130 cm above mean sea level, and the largest daily rain is close to 100 mm. However, the highest sea level observed during a day with rainfall corresponding to the 1‐year rain is less than 60 cm. The highest sea level observed during an hour with 1‐year hourly rainfall is 30 cm. From the statistics of daily rains, hourly rains and sea level, extreme values for each of them have been computed. For events with frequency higher than one per four years the probabilities of combined events sea level – rainfall are determined directly from the observations. For more rare events, marginal distributions of sea level and rainfall are determined. Copulas and conditional probabilities are used. When the sea level exceeds 20 cm above mean sea level, daily rains exceeding 10 mm are almost independent of the sea level and so are hourly rains exceeding 5 mm. It is extremely rare that large rains occur when the sea level is very high. The combination of 1‐year rainfall and the 1‐year sea level has a return period of more than 200 years.     

Basic physiological biomarkers in adult female perch (Perca fluviatilis) in a chronically polluted gradient in the Stockholm recipient (Sweden)

By measuring a battery of basic physiological biomarkers and the concentration of SigmaDDT in adult female perch (Perca fluviatilis), an assumed aquatic pollution gradient was confirmed, with the city of Stockholm (Sweden) as a point source of anthropogenic substances. The investigation included an upstream gradient, westwards through Lake M?laren (46 km), and a downstream gradient, eastwards through the Stockholm archipelago (84 km). The results indicated a severe pollution situation in central Stockholm, with poor health status of the perch: retarded growth, increased frequency of sexually immature females, low gonadosomatic index, and disturbed visceral fat metabolism. SigmaDDT, measured as a pollution indicator, was 10-28 times higher than the background in perch from the Baltic Proper. Besides the main gradient other sources of pollution also influenced the response pattern of the measured biomarkers. In particular, there were strong indications of pollution coming from the Baltic Sea.     

Hyperactivity and changed diurnal activity in flounders,Platichthys flesus,exposed to DDT

Flounders (Platichthys flesus), which had been given oral doses of DDT, developed hyperactivity and abnormal diurnal activity 5–7 weeks after the dosage of DDT was terminated. For the flounder given the highest dose (12.5 mg DDT kg^?1 fresh body weight) a more than 20-fold increase in swimming activity was recorded. The levels of DDT found in various organs (axial muscle, liver and brain) are compared with levels of DDT found in wild populations of fish from the Baltic Sea. The results are also discussed in relation to results obtained in a parallel study on the physiological effects of DDT on the flounder.     

The signature of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude seasonal mean flow and high-frequency intraseasonal variability

Summary The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed.The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes.The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.With 16 Figures     

Efficiency of mixing by a turbulent jet in a stably stratified fluid

Mixing in a two-layer stably stratified fluid by a turbulent jet was studied by a laboratory experiment. A non-swirling jet was discharged vertically downwards in a confined fluid system consisting initially of a top layer of fresh water and a bottom layer of salt water. In total, 16 experimental cases were considered, where the diameter and exit velocity of the jet were varied together with the density difference between the top and bottom layer. Vertical density profiles were determined from conductivity measurements. A three-layer density structure developed in all cases with an intermediate layer that grew in size with time elapsed as fresh and salt water were mixed. The mixing efficiency, defined as the percentage of the supplied kinetic jet energy that is used for increasing the potential energy of the fluid system, was related to a densimetric Froude number based on the intermediate layer depth. Overall, the calculated jet mixing efficiency displayed higher values than comparable efficiencies for destratification with air-bubble plumes.     

Stratospheric climate and variability from a general circulation model and observations

The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–8 Sept. 1995 under the auspice of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.     

High-resolution correlations between Gotland and Estonia near the base of the Wenlock

The strata of the Ireviken Event can be correlated between Gotland, Sweden and the Viki core on Saaremaa, Estonia, with a high degree of precision. Most of the ten datum planes are found with a precision of better than 0.1 m in the Lower and upper Visby Beds on Gotland and high in the Mustjala Member of the Jaani Formation on Saaremaa. Five of the latest Llandovery–early Wenlock units defined by these datum planes are between c. 0.12 and 1.77 m thick on Gotland and 0.12 and 0.67 m in Estonia. The duration of each was between a few thousand and c. 31 000 years. The stratigraphic resolution achieved in the interval of the Ireviken Event is 10,000 years. Ultimate range ends are lacking within a preceding, slightly longer interval, but the pattern of intermittent presence of some taxa agrees well with an unchanged relative rate of sedimentation. Their coeval presence in different places indicates ecological, regional or more widespread changes.     

A case study on the influence of THM coupling on the near field safety of a spent fuel repository in sparsely fractured granite

In order to demonstrate the feasibility of geological disposal of spent CANDU fuel in Canada, a safety assessment was performed for a hypothetical repository in the Canadian Shield. The assessment shows that the maximum long term radionuclide release from such repository would meet international criteria for dose rate; however, uncertainties in the assumed evolution of the repository were identified. Such uncertainties could be resolved by the consideration of coupled Thermal-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) processes. In Task A of the DECOVALEX-THMC project, THM models were developed within the framework of the theory of poroelasticity. Such model development was performed in an iterative manner, using experimental data from laboratory and field tests. The models were used to perform near-field simulations of the evolution of the repository in order to address the above-mentioned uncertainties. This paper presents the definition and rationale of task A and the results of the simulations. From a repository safety point of view, the simulations predict that the maximum temperature would be well below the design target of 100°C; however, the stress on the container can marginally exceed the design value of 15 MPa. However, the most important finding from the simulations is that a rock damage zone could form around the emplacement borehole. Such damage zone can extend a few metres from the walls of the emplacement holes, with permeability values that are orders of magnitude higher than the initial values. The damage zone has the potential to increase the radionuclide transport flux from the geosphere; the effect of such an increase should be taken into account in the safety assessment and mitigated if necessary by the provision of sealing systems. Prepared for publication in Environmental Geology. DECOVALEX-THMC Special Issue.     

The Hilbert Transform on the Two-Sphere: A Spectral Characterization

The local analysis of signals arising on the sphere is a common task in earth sciences. On the real line the analytic signal turned out to be an important representation in local one-dimensional signal processing. Its generalization to two dimensions is the monogenic signal, and the properties of the analytic and the monogenic signal in the Fourier domain are well known. A generalization to the sphere is given by the Hilbert transform on the sphere known from Clifford analysis. To obtain a spectral characterization, the transform has to be decomposed into spherical harmonic functions. In this paper, we derive the spherical harmonic coefficients of the Hilbert transform on the sphere and give a series expansion. This will show that it acts as a differential operator on the spherical harmonic basis functions of the Laplace equation solution, analogously to the Riesz transform in two dimensions. This allows an interpretation of the Hilbert transform suitable for signal processing of signals naturally arising on the two-sphere. We show that the scale space naturally arising is a Poisson scale space in the unit ball. In addition, the obtained interpretation of the Hilbert transform is used for orientation analysis of plane waves. This representation is justified as a novel signal model on the sphere which can be used to construct intensity and rotation-invariant operators for local signal analysis in a scale-space concept.