ARMA模型在变形监测中的应用

介绍了时间序列分析模型ARMA进行模型识别、参数估计、模型检验和模型预测及其在变形监测数据处理中的应用。并结合某一工程实例,采用该模型对一组实测变形数据进行了分析、预测,取得了较好的数据拟合与预测效果,该模型对变形监测数据处理与预报是十分可靠和可行的,具有很强的实际应用价值。     

Is the long-term variation of the estimated GPS differential code biases associated with ionospheric variability?

The global positioning system (GPS) differential code biases (DCB) provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) show solar-cycle-like variation during 2002–2013. This study is to examine whether this variation of the GPS DCBs is associated with ionospheric variability. The GPS observations from low earth orbit (LEO) satellites including CHAMP, GRACE and Jason-1 are used to address this issue. The GPS DCBs estimated from the LEO-based observations at different orbit altitudes show a similar tendency as the IGS DCBs. However, this solar-cycle-like dependency is eliminated when the DCBs of 13 continuously operating GPS satellites are constrained to zero-mean. Our results thus revealed that ionospheric variation is not responsible for the long-term variation of the GPS DCBs. Instead, it is attributed to the GPS satellite replacement with different satellite types and the zero-mean condition imposed on all satellite DCBs.     

泥河湾侯家窑遗址古河流及环境考古意义

侯家窑遗址位于泥河湾盆地西北部,自发现至今,历经40余年,但遗址年代和古人类生存环境问题仍悬而未决。本文基于地质地貌观测、电阻率测深、高程测量等工作,试图通过遗址区地层结构和古河流发育情况研究,阐释上述问题。结果如下:①伴随着泥河湾古湖的快速萎缩,在侯家窑遗址区发育了一条源自北部熊耳山、宽逾1 km的古河流。它形成于240 ka B.P.前,消亡于晚更新世初,发育历史贯穿了侯家窑古人类生存阶段的始终。②遗址古文化遗存不是埋藏在湖相泥河湾层中,而是埋藏于距今约224~161 ka的牛轭湖沉积层和壤化黏土层内,表明古人类在此倚河而居长达6万年。③遗址区面向东南的宽阔圈椅状地形,为古人类生存造就了相对温和舒适的地理环境;古河流既为古人类提供了水源,良好的流域生态环境也给古人类提供了富足的食物;熊耳山既是古河流源地,也是优质石料产地,古河流将石料搬运至遗址附近,石器制作便利。因此,在寒冷气候条件下生活的古人类,选择生境较好的侯家窑遗址区倚河而居势成必然。④遗址区古河流发育在易遭侵蚀的泥河湾湖相沉积层之上,河水泥沙含量高、浑浊,唯有遗址附近的牛轭湖区水流缓滞、清澈,而且植物繁茂,是各类动物优先猎食和饮水的地方。但牛轭湖独特的地貌特点,使动物们在急迫情况下难以逃脱,古人类此地围猎,远较他地成功率高。     

天山南麓库车晚新生代褶皱-冲断带

库车褶皱冲断带位于天山南麓,由近东西走向的多条构造带组成。三叠系暗色泥岩、侏罗系煤层、古近系库姆格列木组膏盐层和新近系吉迪克组膏盐层构成库车褶皱冲断带的区域性主滑脱面。褶皱冲断带底面由北向南逐渐抬高。褶皱冲断带主体发育盖层滑脱-冲断构造(薄皮构造),基底卷入型冲断构造(厚皮构造)见于北缘的根带。新生界膏盐层之上构造变形以滑脱褶皱为特色,之下以冲断构造为特色。库车褶皱冲断带是印度-亚洲碰撞远程效应下,(南)天山晚新生代造山过程的产物。褶皱冲断带构造变形的动力来源主要是造山楔向塔里木盆地推进所形成的挤压构造应力。褶皱冲断带构造变形的起始时间为约23Ma,构造变形具有阶段式加速的特点,已经识别出约23Ma、约10Ma、5~2Ma和1~0Ma共4个变形加速期。褶皱冲断带的演化过程为前展式,褶皱冲断带前锋向南推进的同时,后缘持续变形。     

The Exhumation History of North Qaidam Thrust Belt Constrained by Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology: Implication for the Evolution of the Tibetan Plateau

Determining the spatio-temporal distribution of the deformation tied to the India-Eurasian convergence and the impact of pre-existing weaknesses on the Cenozoic crustal deformation is significant for understanding how the convergence between India and Eurasia contributed to the development of the Tibetan Plateau. The exhumation history of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was addressed in this research using a new apatite fission track (AFT) study in the North Qaidam thrust belt (NQTB). Three granite samples collected from the Qaidam Shan pluton in the north tied to the Qaidam Shan thrust, with AFT ages clustering in the Eocene to Miocene. The other thirteen samples obtained from the Luliang Shan and Yuka plutons in the south related to the Luliang Shan thrust and they have showed predominantly the Cretaceous AFT ages. Related thermal history modeling based on grain ages and track lengths indicates rapid cooling events during the Eocene-early Oligocene and since late Miocene within the Qaidam Shan, in contrast to those in the Cretaceous and since the Oligocene-Miocene in the Luliang Shan and Yuka region. The results, combined with published the Cretaceous thermochronological ages in the Qaidam Shan region, suggest that the NQTB had undergo rapid exhumation during the accretions along the southern Asian Andean-type margin prior to the India-Eurasian collision. The Cenozoic deformation initially took place in the North Qaidam thrust belt by the Eocene, which is consistent with the recent claim that the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau initiated in the Eocene as a response to continental collision between India and Eurasia. The immediate deformation responding to the collision is tentatively attributed to the pre-existing weaknesses of the lithosphere, and therefore the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau should be regarded as a boundary-condition-dependent process.     

A Survey of the Spatio-Temporal Data Model

Traditional GIS(Geographic Information System)mostly can only describe the transient state data and does not have the ability to deal with the temporal dynamic data. When the data changes, new data will take the place of the old data, namely the transient state change into another, and the old data will disappear. Therefore, it is unable to make an analysis of the updating changes of the data and predict the development trend of the future. In this case, TGIS (Temporal Geographic Information System) emerges and expands the time dimension on the basis of traditional GIS. Spatio-temporal data model is the key to TGIS. Spatio-temporal data modeling is not only related to dynamic expression of spatio-temporal objects, but also gives an important support for spatio-temporal analysis and reasoning. This paper summarized the theories and applications status at home and abroad of spatio-temporal data model in detail, illustrated family tree of spatio-temporal data model for the nearly fifty years, discussed improvement and application status of Base State with Amendments Model, Event-based Spatio-temporal Data Model, Object-oriented Data Model and other spatio-temporal data models, and raised the existing problems of spatio-temporal data model. The current existing problems mainly includes: ①There are a lot of spatio-temporal data models put forward, but some of them only focus on semantic design and neglect the verified; ②Most of existing spatio-temporal data model are for vector data, only the Event-based Spatio-temporal Data Model is raster data structure; ③At present, the expression the time-space information of geographic entity is relative separated with spatio-temporal data model; ④Spatio-temporal data model is mainly used in cadastral management, land use and forestry data updating, less application in other fields. In the end, the future development direction was put forward of spatio-temporal data model. In the time of big data and “Internet plus”, it is necessary to explore the big data spatio-temporal data model that supports multiple data formats.     

北京后沙峪凹陷的第四纪地层划分与构造演化

通过对北京平原北部昌平、顺义、朝阳等区域的多个深孔资料、尤其后沙峪地区G3钻孔资料的深入分析,并开展磁性地层学及孢粉测试成果研究,建立了钻孔的磁性地层序列,结合南口—孙河断裂、顺义断裂以及黄庄—高丽营断裂的活动性研究成果,确定了后沙峪凹陷的第四纪地层格架,分析了凹陷的构造演化过程。结果表明,后沙峪凹陷上G3孔下更新统底界为511.7 m,中更新统底界为175.5 m,上更新统底界为31.6 m。在燕山期晚期,黄庄—高丽营断裂形成,控制了北京凹陷的西部边界,在北东向顺义断裂和北西向南口—孙河断裂共同作用下形成后沙峪凹陷。进入第四纪后,G3钻孔地层在早、中、晚更新世的沉积速率分别为0.198 mm/a、0.255 mm/a和0.243 mm/a;各条断裂活动速率的差异性客观反映出各块体之间的升降特点。由于后沙峪凹陷处于黄庄—高丽营断裂的上盘,同时也是顺义断裂的下盘,因此,断裂间的相互运动在第四纪沉积作用下形成了后沙峪凹陷。     

贵州沿河萤石矿稀土元素地球化学特征及成因探讨

为了研究沿河县萤石矿成因,主要针对研究区内具代表性的水田坝和丰水岭两个矿床地质特征进行研究,并运用等离子质谱(ICP-MS)对稀土元素进行了系统分析。研究结果表明,围岩的稀土总量、轻稀土和重稀土的含量远高于萤石矿石,但是萤石的稀土配分型式与围岩相似。根据Moller等(1976)的Tb/Ca_Tb/La关系图,结合矿体特征和区地质背景研究,认为该区萤石矿为热水(热卤水)再造沉积岩(或矿床)。     

点苍山-哀牢山杂岩带中北段嘎洒地区变沉积岩的成因矿物学与变质演化特征

点苍山-哀牢山变质杂岩带中北段嘎洒地区出露了多种典型的变沉积岩,其中夕线石榴黑云二长片麻岩和二云母片岩保存多期/多阶段矿物相转变特征,本文通过岩相学和矿物化学的综合分析,并结合传统矿物对温压计的估算结果,限定上述典型变沉积岩峰期角闪-麻粒岩相(M1)阶段、近等温减压-高温剪切变形阶段(M2)和晚期退变质(M3)阶段的矿物组合及变质温压条件。峰期角闪-麻粒岩相(M1)阶段的矿物组合为:石榴石(Grt)+板柱状夕线石(Sil1)+黑云母(Bt1)+钾长石(Kfs)+斜长石(Pl)+石英(Qtz)+钛铁矿(Ilm),变质温度压力条件为t=690~750℃,p=690~810 MPa;近等温减压-高温剪切变形阶段(M2)阶段,稳定矿物组合为:Grt+Sil2+Bt2+Kfs+Pl+Qtz+Ilm,黑云母在强烈走滑剪切作用下发生脱水熔融反应:2 Bt→Sil+6(Mg,Fe)O+K_2O+5 Qtz+2 H_2O,石榴石、黑云母和夕线石等受到剪切变形影响而发生强烈定向,形成的温度压力条件为t=650~720℃,p=450~630 MPa;晚期退变质阶段(M_3)的稳定矿物组合为:Qtz+Bt+Ms+Pl,退变的温度压力条件为t=580~640℃,p=400~500MPa。其变质演化p-T轨迹样式具有近等温减压的顺时针型式,表明点苍山-哀牢山变质杂岩带曾经历了一次明显的俯冲-碰撞造山事件,峰期变质可达到角闪-麻粒岩相;在碰撞后的构造折返过程中,上述变质岩石发生强烈的高温剪切变形作用,并伴随着黑云母等含水矿物的脱水熔融。