Set-asides for carbon sequestration: implications for permanence and leakage

This paper examines the potential role of forest set-asides in global carbon sequestration policy. While set asides that protect forests from timber harvests and land-use conversion may alleviate concerns with permanence, and they may provide large ancillary environmental benefits, they may also lead to large leakage. This paper uses a global land use and forestry model to examine the efficiency of three crediting schemes for set-asides. The results show that if set-asides are integrated into a global forestry carbon sequestration program that includes a wide range of other management options, then 300 million hectares of land would be set-aside, and up to 128 Pg C could be sequestered in global forests by 2105. Under alternative policies that focus exclusively on set-asides, more forestland can be set-asides, up to 3.2 billion hectare, but these policies invite large leakage in the near-term, and in the long-run, they less net carbon is removed from the atmosphere. Specifically, leakage is estimated to be 47–52%, depending on the policy, and by the end of the century, up to 17% less carbon will be sequestered in all forests.     

2011年3月日本福岛核电站核泄漏在海洋中的传输

使用全球版本的迈阿密等密度海洋环流模式对2011年3月日本福岛核电站泄漏在海洋中的传输以及扩散进行了数值模拟。数值模式中核废料(示踪物)排放情景采取等通量连续排放,排放时间从3月25日开始,分别持续20 d以及1 a,两种情形分别积分20 a。为了减少海洋环流年际变化带来的数值模拟的的不确定性,20 a的模式积分分别用2010年、1991-2011年、1971-1991年以及1951-1971年4个不同时段的NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料作为大气强迫场,因此每种排放情形包含4个数值试验。模拟结果的分析表明,不同核废料排放情景及其在不同时段大气资料对海洋模式的驱动下,模拟的示踪物总体的传输扩散路径(包括表层以及次表层)、传输速率以及垂直扩展的范围没有显著的差异。集合平均数值模拟的结果显示:在两种排放情景下,日本福岛核泄漏在海洋的传输路径受北太平洋副热带涡旋洋流系统主导,其传输路径首先主要向东,到达东太平洋后,再向南向西扩散至西太平洋,可能在10~15 a左右影响到我国东部沿海海域,且海洋次表层的传输信号比表层信号早5 a左右。通过进一步分析模式积分过程中最大示踪物浓度随时间变化发现,在积分第20 a(2031年3月),海洋表层和次表层浓度的最高值分别只有模式积分第一年浓度的0.1%和1%。在积分的20 a里,排放的核废料主要滞留在北太平洋海域(超过86%±1.5%的核废料在积分结束时,滞留在北太平洋),而在积分的前10 a(2021年之前),几乎所有的核废料滞留在北太平洋;在核废料的垂直分布上,主要集中在海洋表层至600 m的深度,在积分的20 a时间里,没有核废料信号扩散至1 000 m以下的深度。数值模拟的结果也表明核废料浓度减弱的强度以及演变的时间特征主要受洋流系统的影响,与排放源的排放时间长短关系不大。值得指出的是,更加准确地评估一个真实的核泄漏事故对海洋环境所造成的可能影响,还需要考虑大气中的放射性物质的沉降以及海洋生态对核物质的响应。     

Electrical conductivity of hydrous silicate melts and aqueous fluids: Measurement and applications

The combination of magnetotelluric survey and laboratory measurements of electrical conductivity is a powerful approach for exploring the conditions of Earth’s deep interior. Electrical conductivity of hydrous silicate melts and aqueous fluids is sensitive to composition, temperature, and pressure, making it useful for understanding partial melting and fluid activity at great depths. This study presents a review on the experimental studies of electrical conductivity of silicate melts and aqueous fluids, and introduces some important applications of experimental results. For silicate melts, electrical conductivity increases with increasing temperature but decreases with pressure. With a similar Na⁺ concentration, along the calc-alkaline series electrical conductivity generally increases from basaltic to rhyolitic melt, accompanied by a decreasing activation enthalpy. Electrical conductivity of silicate melts is strongly enhanced with the incorporation of water due to promoted cation mobility. For aqueous fluids, research is focused on dilute electrolyte solutions. Electrical conductivity typically first increases and then decreases with increasing temperature, and increases with pressure before approaching a plateau value. The dissociation constant of electrolyte can be derived from conductivity data. To develop generally applicable quantitative models of electrical conductivity of melt/fluid addressing the dependences on temperature, pressure, and composition, it requires more electrical conductivity measurements of representative systems to be implemented in an extensive P-T range using up-to-date methods.     

基于微卫星标记的三疣梭子蟹家系系谱认证

用6个微卫星标记对三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)的6个家系进行系谱鉴别和遗传多样性研究。6个微卫星标记在6个家系中显示了高度的遗传差异,6个位点的多态信息含量(PIC)分别为Pot09位点0.6045,Pot14位点0.6072,Pot17位点0.8130,Pot18位点0.6870,Pot25位点0.7839,Pot42位点0.6330。6个多态性位点共发现了32个等位基因,每个位点的等位基因数在4～8个之间。不同位点共发现7个家系特异性等位基因,2#和3#家系中各发现2个,1#、5#、6#家系中各发现1个,4#家系未发现特异性等位基因。根据已知亲本及子代基因型,可推断出6个家系中全部亲本的基因型,据此鉴别各家系。在Pot18位点可将1#家系和6#家系与其他家系相区别;Pot14位点和Pot17位点可将3#家系与其他家系相区别;Pot42位点可将5#与其他家系相区别;Pot17位点和Pot25可将2#家系与其他家系相区别。因此,Pot18位点、Pot14位点和Pot17位点、Pot42位点、Pot17位点和Pot25位点可分别用于鉴别1#和6#家系、3#、5#、2#家系的特异性标记。研究表明,在选用的6个微卫星标记中,最少选用3个标记可鉴别6个三疣梭子蟹家系。     

Recession of Milam Glacier,Kumaun Himalaya,Observed via Lichenometric Dating of Moraines

Glaciers being very sensitive to climate change have been identified as one of the best indicators of climate change and evidences have proved that most of the Himalayan glaciers have receded with an increased rate during the recent past under the influence of global warming. Lichenometric study was carried out on the moraines of Milam glacier (located in Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand) with the help of lichen species Dimelaena oreina having an average annual growth rate of 1.31 mm. The study revealed that Milam glacier has receded 1450 m in last 69.37 years with an average recession rate of 20.90 m/year. Since lichenometric studies are cost effective and ecofriendly in comparison to carbon dating, satellite and remote sensing based studies and also reliable, hence, it should be promoted in Himalaya which is an abode of glaciers.     

High resolution facies record on late Holocene flood plain sediments from lower reaches of Narmada Valley,Western India

A high resolution quantitative granulometric record for site Uchediya [21°43′2.22″ N, 73° 6′26.22″ E; 10 m a. s. l.] gives understanding towards accretion history of the late Holocene flood plain in the lower reaches of Narmada River. Two sediment facies (sandy and muddy) and seven subfacies (sandy subfacies: St_MS+FS+CS, Sm_FS+MS, Sl_FS+VFS, and St_{MS + CS}; muddy subfacies: Fm_SILT+VFS+FS, Fm_SILT+VFS (O) and Fm_SILT+VFS (T)) are identified based on cluster analysis supplemented with sedimentary structures observed in field and other laboratory data. Changes in hydrodynamics are further deduced based on various sedimentological parameters and their ratios leading to arrive at a depositional model.     

Provenance of the Bosnian Flysch

Sandwiched between the Adriatic Carbonate Platform and the Dinaride Ophiolite Zone, the Bosnian Flysch forms a c. 3000 m thick, intensely folded stack of Upper Jurassic to Cretaceous mixed carbonate and siliciclastic sediments in the Dinarides. New petrographic, heavy mineral, zircon U/Pb and fission-track data as well as biostratigraphic evidence allow us to reconstruct the palaeogeology of the source areas of the Bosnian Flysch basin in late Mesozoic times. Middle Jurassic intraoceanic subduction of the Neotethys was shortly followed by exhumation of the overriding oceanic plate. Trench sedimentation was controlled by a dual sediment supply from the sub-ophiolitic high-grade metamorphic soles and from the distal continental margin of the Adriatic plate. Following obduction onto Adria, from the Jurassic–Cretaceous transition onwards a vast clastic wedge (Vranduk Formation) was developed in front of the leading edge, fed by continental basement units of Adria that experienced Early Cretaceous synsedimentary cooling, by the overlying ophiolitic thrust sheets and by redeposited elements of coeval Urgonian facies reefs grown on the thrust wedge complex. Following mid-Cretaceous deformation and thermal overprint of the Vranduk Formation, the depozone migrated further towards SW and received increasing amounts of redeposited carbonate detritus released from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform margin (Ugar Formation). Subordinate siliciclastic source components indicate changing source rocks on the upper plate, with ophiolites becoming subordinate. The zone of the continental basement previously affected by the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous thermal imprint has been removed; instead, the basement mostly supplied detritus with a wide range of pre-Jurassic cooling ages. However, a c. 80 Ma, largely synsedimentary cooling event is also recorded by the Ugar Formation, that contrasts the predominantly Early Cretaceous cooling of the Adriatic basement and suggests, at least locally, a fast exhumation.     

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

Pockmarks in the inner Oslofjord,Norway

Multibeam bathymetric surveys of the Inner Oslofjord, Norway have revealed a high density of pockmarks in the 179-km² inner fjord area, which contains over 500 pockmarks of varying size, typically 20–50 m in diameter and 2–10 m deep. These pockmarks have been investigated with a variety of techniques, including acoustic subbottom profiling, sedimentological and geochemical analyses of cores, remotely operated vehicle observation, and morphometry. Both the distribution and shapes of the pockmarks suggest that they are related to structures in the bedrock underlying relatively thin (<50 m) unconsolidated glacial and postglacial sediments. The data provide no direct indication of a particular mode of pockmark formation, but release of large amounts of biogenic, shallow methane seems unlikely. Several lines of evidence point to a continuous process of pockmark formation followed by inactivity, with some pockmarks recently active whereas others have been inactive for a considerable time. Some pockmarks are characterised by coarse sediment in their centres. The density, variety and easy access make this pockmark field an ideal model area for pockmark research. John S. Gray is deceased.     

Fishing for diatoms: fish gut analysis reveals water quality changes over a 75-year period

Defining the reference state of some perturbed streams and rivers is challenging since their non-altered state is undocumented. Despite the near-absence of pristine sites in highly anthropogenic areas, information about aquatic communities that existed prior to human disturbance can be obtained from historic sources. Sediment coring is commonly used in paleolimnology to estimate past environmental conditions of lakes, but this technique is often not appropriate for studies of lotic systems. An alternative is to use diatom assemblages present in the guts of fish that were captured in the streams prior to significant human disturbance. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the biological integrity of several streams in Ontario and Québec during the early twentieth century based on “paleo” diatom assemblages extracted from the guts of fish stored in museums. The Eastern Canadian diatom index (IDEC: Indice Diatomées de l’Est du Canada) was used to evaluate the biological status of “paleo” and “modern” diatom assemblages. The IDEC shows the position of diatom assemblages on a general pollution gradient. The comparison of IDEC values calculated for the 1925–1948 and the 2003–2007 periods showed that several streams were severely polluted in the early 1900s. In general, present water quality has declined compared to the early 1900s. The biological integrity of only three of the 22 sites has increased. IDEC values were not influenced by the species of fish studied.