Frequency–volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

Rainfall-induced landslides constitute a major public concern in Hong Kong. This paper investigates two aspects of critical importance to landslide hazard and risk assessment and management: magnitude–cumulative frequency relationship for landslides, and relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of landslides. The results indicated that landslides with a failure volume of not less than 4 m³ have a cumulative frequency–size distribution with a power-law dependence on volume of failure. Analysis of rainfall/landslides showed that the 12-hour rolling rainfall is most important in predicting the number of landslides. Failure volume dependency in the relationships between rainfall and the number of landslides is also presented. However, with an increase in failure volume of landslides, the most important rainfall variable may vary from rainfall of short duration (12-h rolling rainfall) to that of relatively long duration (24-h rolling rainfall).     

A chlorophyll time series for Narragansett Bay: Assessment of the potential effect of tidal phase on measurement

An 18-yr chlorophyll time series for Narragansett Bay based on weekly samples collected without regard to tidal phase revealed a long-term decrease in mean annual levels. The potential influence of neglecting tidal phase in the sampling strategy on measured chlorophyll and its apparent long-term decrease is evaluated. A two year data set (1995–1996) is used as a proxy for the 1973–1990 time series together with an observed relationship between continuous measurements of in situ chlorophyll fluorescence and accompanying tidal phase. The deviations in chlorophyll from long-term means relative to deviations from mean low water at the time of sample collection are also analyzed, as is the potential influence of tidally-induced advective increases or dilution on measured chlorophyll levels. The analyses, which compare the magnitude and trends in tidally adjusted and directly measured chlorophyll, indicate that semi-diurnal intratidal variations in chlorophyll had little apparent effect on the long-term and seasonal patterns and trends deduced from the chlorophyll measurements. Neither tidal advection of the chlorophyll gradient, nor bloom magnitude appear to compromise application of the model. The 18-yr decline in annual mean chlorophyll observed between 1973–1990 in narragansett Bay is considered to be a bonafide portrayal of actual events, and not an artifact of failure to consider tidal phase in the weekly sampling strategy. The results also suggest that intratidal variability in chlorophyll does not seriously confound its meaningful measurement and usefulness as a representative index of phytoplankton abundance at the permanent monitoring station established for Narragansett Bay. Nonetheless, there is need to refine and to incorporate temporal sampling strategies more closely attuned to the tempo of growth, grazing, and nutrient recycling which accompany estuarine phytoplankton dynamics.     

Delineating agricultural field boundaries from TM imagery using dyadic wavelet transforms

Agricultural field boundary information is important in the study of agricultural crops by remote sensing. In this paper, the dyadic wavelet transform is adopted to extract field boundaries directly from TM imagery. A field boundary is a set of locally connected pixels characterized by their abrupt spectral intensity variation (singularity) on the image. Preliminary extraction is made on the near-infrared Band 4 (0.76–0.90 μm) image. It is found that most of the boundaries are well characterized by the wavelet modulus maxima curves, particularly for fully vegetated fields, while better results are obtained from the NDVI image for cropped field boundaries. To extract additional boundaries while suppressing unwanted noisy edges, the wavelet transform is then applied to the Wetness image calculated by the Tasselled Cap Transform. A technique is implemented to integrate the edges extracted from each source. The combined results show that the majority of the field boundaries are delineated. The use of a single date image fails to delineate some of the fallow field boundaries and boundaries between two cropped fields with similar spectral properties. Although techniques have been applied to reduce noise, still great difficulties are encountered when trying to delineate edges that are field boundaries from all the detected singularities. Manual editing is still required to trace the remaining boundaries to obtain a complete boundary map. It is recommended that a multi-temporal data set be used to obtain a complete delineation with a fully automated algorithm.     

大气臭氧与气溶胶垂直分布的高空气球探测

本文给出了1993年9月12日利用高空科学气球在河北省香河地区探测到的大气臭氧和气溶胶的垂直分布。结果发现:(1) 大气臭氧的数密度在整个对流层较低(～10[12]mol/cm3)，并从地面到对流层顶略有下降；对流层顶以上开始快速增加，极值层高度在～24 km，其值为4.78×10[12]mol/cm3；臭氧分压有类似的分布特征，极值146×10[-4]Pa，位于同一高度；(2) 在平流层低层，臭氧分压有一个次极值62×10[-4]Pa，位于15～16 km；(3) 0～30 km大气气溶胶数密度呈现出三个峰值:143，8和1.1 个/cm[3]，分别位于近地面、5 km和21 km；（4）气溶胶的数密度谱在对流层为双模态；在平流层，次峰消失。同时，我们还与其他观测结果作了比较分析。     

Astronomical calibration of the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary: Consequences for magnetic remanence acquisition in marine carbonates and the Asian loess sequences

We have compiled 19 records from marine carbonate cores in which the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary (MBB) has been reasonably well constrained within the astronomically forced stratigraphic framework using oxygen isotopes. By correlation of the δ¹⁸O data to a timescale based on astronomical forcing, we estimate astronomical ages for each of the MBB horizons. In all but one record the MBB occurs within Stage 19.

Most magnetostratigraphic sections in Asian Loess place the MBB within a loess interval. Since loess deposition is presumed to be associated with glacial intervals, loess horizons should correspond to even-numbered oxygen isotope stages. A glacial age for the MBB is at odds with the results presented here, which firmly place the MBB within interglacial Stage 19. Inconsistency among the many loess sections and between the loess and the marine records suggests that the magnetic interpretation of loess sections may be more complicated than hitherto supposed.

The mean of the Stage 19 age estimates for the MBB is 777.9 ± 1.8 (N = 18). Inclusion of the single Stage 20 age results in a mean of 778.8 ± 2.5 (N = 19). The astronomical age estimate of the MBB compares favorably with an (unweighted) mean of 778.2 ± 3.5 (N = 10) from a compilation of ⁴⁰Ar/39^Ar results of transitional lava flows. Combining the two independent data sets yields a grand mean of 778.0 ± 1.7 (N = 28).

The new compilation shows virtually no trend in placement of the MBB within isotope Stage 19 as a function of sediment accumulation rate. We interpret this to mean that the average depth of remanence acquisition is within a few centimeters of the sediment-water interface.

Separating the cores into two geographic regions (an Indo-Pacific-Caribbean [IPC] Group and an Atlantic Group) results in a significant difference in the position of the mid-point of the reversal with respect to the astronomical time scale. The data presented here suggest a difference of several thousand years between the two regions. This observation could be caused by systematic differences between the two regions in sedimentation rate within the interval of interest, systematic differences in remanence acquisition, or by genuine differences in the timing of the directional changes between the two regions.     

How do long-term patterns affect time-limited environmental monitoring programmes?

A five year Environmental Monitoring Programme (EMP) was set up in east-Australian coastal waters to determine the environmental effects of diverting most of Sydney's primary treated sewage from cliff face outfalls to diffuser outfall systems some 3 km offshore in 60–80 m of water. Many component EMP studies adopted Before and After Control Impact (BACI and ‘beyond BACI’) designs, to isolate outfall impacts on the marine ecosystem from background variability. Although seasonal patterns dominated ambient conditions in coastal waters, long-term climatic signals, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were apparent during the EMP. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) indicated the two year post-commissioning study period of 1991–1993 was dominated by an El Nino episode, while the 1989–1990 pre-commissioning period experienced a La Nina episode. Anomalous rainfall conditions and ocean temperature structure were associated with these episodes with respect to long-term records. Rainfall patterns suggested that the pre-commissioning period experienced high rainfall causing an increased incidence of stormwater pollution in coastal waters. Effects of the lower rain levels during post-commissioning phase were, however, outweighed by the dramatic improvements due to the commissioning of the deepwater outfalls. Decreased thermal stratification was experienced during the winter months of the 1992–1993 El Nino episode, and promoted increased dilutions associated with a greater frequency in sewage plume surfacing. There was, however, no apparent short-term effect of this change in plume behaviour on the marine environment as measured by EMP indicators.     

Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: the SEMAPHORE experiment

The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale) experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period). Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies), and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m⁻². This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The classical momentum flux bulk parameterization was found to fail in low wind and unstable conditions. Finally, the sea surface was investigated using airborne and satellite radars and wave buoys. A wave model, operationally used, was found to get better results compared with radar and wave-buoy measurements, when initialized using an improved wind field, obtained by assimilating satellite and buoy wind data in a meteorological model. A detailed analysis of a 2-day period showed that the swell component, propagating from a far source area, is underestimated in the wave model. A data base has been created, containing all experimental measurements. It will allow us to pursue the interpretation of observations and to test model simulations in the ocean, at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer, and to investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling at the local and mesoscales.     

Physical mechanisms of man-made influences on the magnetosphere

Since the discovery of the Luxembourg effect in the 1930s, it is clear that man-made activities can perturb the ionosphere and the magnetosphere. The anthropogenic effects are mainly due to different kinds of waves coming from the Earth's surface. Acoustic-gravity waves are generated by large explosions, spacecraft launches, or flight of supersonic planes. Electromagnetic waves are active in different frequency ranges. Power line harmonic radiation which is radiated in the ELF range by electrical power systems can be observed over industrial areas. At VLF and HF, the ground-based transmitters used for communications or radio-navigation heat the ionosphere and change the natural parameters. A large variety of phenomena is observed: wave-particle interaction, precipitation of radiation belt electrons, parametric coupling of EM whistler waves, triggered emissions, frequency shift, and whistler spectrum broadening. This paper will review the different physical mechanisms which are relevant to such perturbations. The possibility of direct chemical pollution in the ionosphere due to gas releases is also discussed.     

ENSO cycle in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and its negative feedback mechanism

Summary A coupled ocean-atmosphere anomaly model has been developed for simulating ENSO cycle and its mechanism-study in this paper. After a long model run, the coupled model is successful in demonstrating ENSO-like irregular interannual variability and corresponding horizontal spatial structures. Based on the simulated results, the dynamics and the thermodynamics of the model ENSO cycle have been investigated, and in particular the negative feedback mechanisms that act to oppose instability of air-sea interaction, inducing termination of warm and cold events, have been examined. A detailed analysis of the oceanic wave dynamical properties and heat budget of the SST changes in a representative cycle suggest that the negative feedback mechanism to check the unstable growth of a warm event obviously differs from that of a cold event. The mechanism that induces decay and termination of a cold event is closely related to the negative, delayed feedback effect produced by the oceanic dynamical wave reflection at the western boundary. However, independent of the wave reflection effect, the negative feedback mechanism by which the coupled system returns from a warm event is associated with a slowly eastward-propagating coupling mode. Accompanied with the strong unstable development of the equatorial positive SST anomaly, the anomalous upwelling of cold water generated off the equator and the nonlinear anomalous meridional advection generated in the equator west of instability area jointly restrain the instability and finally plunge the system from a mature warm phase into a weak cold phase. A comparison between the results from the present model and the previous works is also discussed in this paper.With 16 Figures