Effective stress analyses of liquefaction-induced deformation in river dikes

A series of effective stress analyses is carried out on the seismic performance of river dikes based on the case histories during the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-oki and 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquakes in Japan. Seven case histories selected for the analyses involve a crest settlement ranging from none to 2.7 m in the dikes 3–6 m high with evidence of liquefaction at foundation soil. The effective stress model used is based on a multiple shear mechanism and was developed by one of the authors. The soil parameters are evaluated based on the site investigation and laboratory test results. The results of the analyses are basically consistent with the observed performance of the river dikes. In particular, the effective stress model shows a reasonable capability to reproduce the varying degree of settlements depending on the geotechnical conditions of foundation soils beneath the dikes. The analyses also indicate that the effect of a cohesive soil layer mixed with the liquefiable sand layers beneath the dikes can be a primary factor for reducing the liquefaction-induced deformation of dikes.     

Seismic analysis of base-isolated liquid storage tanks using the BE–FE–BE coupling technique

A three-dimensional soil–structure–liquid interaction problem is numerically simulated in order to analyze the dynamic behavior of a base-isolated liquid storage tank subjected to seismic ground motion. A dynamic analysis of a liquid storage tank is carried out using a hybrid formulation, which combines the finite shell elements for structures and the boundary elements for liquid and soil. The system is composed of three parts: the liquid–structure interaction part, the soil–foundation interaction part, and the base-isolation part. In the liquid–structure interaction part, the tank structure is modeled using the finite elements and the liquid is modeled using the internal boundary elements, which satisfy the free surface boundary condition. In the soil–foundation interaction part, the foundation is modeled using the finite elements and the half-space soil media are modeled using the external boundary elements, which satisfy the radiation condition in the infinite domain. Finally, above two parts are connected with the base-isolation system to solve the system's behavior. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the developed method, and an earthquake response analysis is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the developed technique. The properties of a real LNG tank located in the west coast of Korea are used. The effects of the ground and the base-isolation system on the behavior of the tank are analyzed.     

Optimal placement of dampers and actuators based on stochastic approach

A general method is developed for optimal application of dampers and actuators by installing them at optimal location on seismic-resistant structures. The study includes development of a statistical criterion, formulation of a general optimization problem and establishment of a solution procedure. Numerical analysis of the seismic response in time-history of controlled structures is used to verify the proposed method for optimal device application and to demonstrate the effectiveness of seismic response control with optimal device location. This study shows that the proposed method for the optimal device application is simple and general, and that the optimally applied dampers and actuators are very efficient for seismic response reduction.     

Models of passive margin inversion: implications for the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt, Belgium and Germany

Positive tectonic inversion is related to the transmission of compressional stresses along a décollement into the foreland of an orogenic zone. This stress and strain concentration in regions remote from the main orogenic front is commonly related to the presence of pre-existing rheological heterogeneities such as normal syn-depositional faults. During inversion, these pre-existing normal faults are reactivated as reverse faults. Tectonic inversion in the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt during the Variscan Orogeny shows that inversion is likely synchronous with the onset of collision in the hinterland. Here, we present the results of a simplified thermo-mechanical model (STM) which allows one to study strain partitioning between two orogenic zones. We show that, if the two orogenic zones have the same mechanical properties, the viscosity of the décollement, which links them, controls the initial strain partitioning. During subsequent finite shortening, erosional processes determine the partitioning of strain rate. The presence of a weak structure in the inverted zone and of a low-viscosity décollement leads to initial strain concentration in the inverted track rather than in the collision zone and a progressive decrease in strain partitioning between the two orogenic zones. The STM results are in good agreement with results of a 2D finite-element model. We conclude that, in the western part of the Rhenohercynian Massif, simultaneous uplift and deformation within the Mid-German Crystalline Rise (the main collision zone) and the Ardenne Anticlinorium (the inverted zone) lead to interpreting this orogenic event as a case of vice tectonic rather than the propagation of a ‘wave of folding’ towards the Variscan front, as suggested by previous authors.     

The null distribution of sample serial correlation coefficient

 The null distribution of the lag-k sample serial correlation coefficient (r _k , k=1,2,3) was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation. For a time series with normal, exponential, Pearson 3, EV1 (Gumbel), or generalized Pareto (GP) distribution type, the null distribution of its r _k can be approximated by the normal distribution with mean −1/(n−k) and variance 1/(n−1). But for a time series with the lognormal, EV2 or EV3 (Weibull) distribution type, the null distribution of r _k is skewed distributed. In such cases, a simulation technique is suggested to construct percentile confidence intervals at a given significance level.     

Model-independent Travel-time Attributes for 2-D, Finite-offset Multicoverage Reflections

— In this paper, we provide a 5-parameter stacking formula to transform 2-D prestack data into a particular common-offset section. This requires the knowledge of the near-surface velocity only and it is expected that ray theory holds to describe primary reflections. The earth model can be arbitrarily inhomogeneous. The new stacking approach can be viewed as a generalization of the 3-parameter common-reflection-surface (CRS) stack, by which 2-D multicoverage data are stacked into a simulated zero-offset section. The new 5-parameter formula can handle P-P, P-S and S-S reflections.     

Microseismicity Induced by Heavy Rainfall Around Flooded Vertical Ore Veins

—?Microseismicity (M?M?M?M??6 were also monitored at a crustal movement monitoring station located several hundred meters from the veins. It was found that the opening of the vertical ore veins primary led to significant strain and tilt, but not to seismicity, because the delay and the longer duration of the seismicity were significant. Most seismic events involve thrusting mechanisms that are consistent with the present stress state of E-W-oriented tectonic compression, but are not consistent with the opening of the deepest ore vein. Interstingly, all the events within a few months of the heavy rainfall occurred near the faults that offset the deepest ore veins, wheareas all those events located away from the deepest ore veins occurred many months after the heavy rainfall. Consequently, the delayed diffusion of water appears to have played a dominant role in reducing rock strength, which led to seismicity in the Ikuno mine.     

Power of the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological data

 The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistic test has been popularly used to assess the significance of a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological time series. It has been considered that the test is more suitable for non-normally distributed data and it may be not sensitive to the distribution type of sample data. However, no evidence has been provided to demonstrate these. This study investigates the power of the test in various circumstances by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results demonstrate that the power of the test is very sensitive to various properties of sample data. The power depends on the pre-assigned significance level, magnitude of a shift, sample size, and its occurrence position within a time series; and it is also strongly affected by the variation, skewness, and distribution type of a time series. The bigger the magnitude of a shift, the more powerful the test is; the larger the sample size, the more powerful the test is; and the bigger the variation within a time series, the less power the test has. The test has the highest power if a shift occurs at the midpoint of a time series. For the samples with different distribution types, the power of the test is dramatically different. The test has the highest power for time series with the extreme value type III (EV3) distribution while it indicates the lowest power for time series with the lognormal distribution.     

改进的灰色模型在中国能源消费及其CO2排放预测中的研究

中国高速的经济发展导致了快速的能源消费和地球温暖化气体的排放量。本文应用灰色理论建立了中国的终端能源消费量的动态预测模型，同时应用等维递补及带有马尔科夫链符号估计的残差修正，对原始模型进行了改进。后验检验的结果证明了改进的预测模型具有较高的计算精度。预测结果表明，两种经济发展情况（高速及低速）下，从2000年到2030年期间的终端能源消费量的平均增长率将分别达到3．06％和2．18％，2030年CO2 的排放量将分别达到2000年的 2． 15及 1．60倍。其中工业及居民生活的能源消费量的增加速度快于其他部门。这表明了中国将要加快其工业化及都市化的进程．终端消费中，煤炭的消费量所占的比例将要逐年减少，而电力的比例则将逐年增大。