Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map

Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.     

Estimating the error in vertically interpolated forecast‐observation differences: U‐ and v‐wind components

Abstract

Data assimilation in numerical weather forecasting corrects current forecast values by subtracting a portion of interpolated forecast‐minus‐observation differences at the points of a three‐dimensional grid. Deviations used in updating a forecast data field are forecast errors obtained or derived from observations available at update time. When observations are missing at mandatory levels, construction of full vertical soundings by interpolation introduces extraneous errors. The present paper is concerned with determination of the error in vertical extrapolations of surface winds, and of aircraft and satellite cloud‐tracked winds. In addition it examines the effect on accuracy of using location‐specific statistics compared to averaged statistics as the basis for the interpolation weighting scheme and compares errors of one‐ and two‐variable interpolations.

Interpolation accuracy tests demonstrate the influence of the interpolation scheme on the quality of interpolated information used in forecast updating. The results show that the level of accuracy exceeds the benchmark provided by monthly mean forecast error values only with bivariate interpolation of wind components from off‐level data sources.     

Evaluation of an ensemble of regional climate model simulations over South America driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis: model performance and uncertainties

The capability of a set of 7 coordinated regional climate model simulations performed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project in reproducing the mean climate conditions over the South American continent has been evaluated. The model simulations were forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the period 1990–2008 on a grid resolution of 50 km, following the CORDEX protocol. The analysis was focused on evaluating the reliability of simulating mean precipitation and surface air temperature, which are the variables most commonly used for impact studies. Both the common features and the differences among individual models have been evaluated and compared against several observational datasets. In this study the ensemble bias and the degree of agreement among individual models have been quantified. The evaluation was focused on the seasonal means, the area-averaged annual cycles and the frequency distributions of monthly means over target sub-regions. Results show that the Regional Climate Model ensemble reproduces adequately well these features, with biases mostly within ±2 °C and ±20 % for temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, the multi-model ensemble depicts larger biases and larger uncertainty (as defined by the standard deviation of the models) over tropical regions compared with subtropical regions. Though some systematic biases were detected particularly over the La Plata Basin region, such as underestimation of rainfall during winter months and overestimation of temperature during summer months, every model shares a similar behavior and, consequently, the uncertainty in simulating current climate conditions is low. Every model is able to capture the variety in the shape of the frequency distribution for both temperature and precipitation along the South American continent. Differences among individual models and observations revealed the nature of individual model biases, showing either a shift in the distribution or an overestimation or underestimation of the range of variability.     

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

Kuramoto Model of Nonlinear Coupled Oscillators as a Way for Understanding Phase Synchronization: Application to Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

We apply a Kuramoto model of nonlinear coupled oscillators to the simulation of slow variations of the phase difference between sunspot number [R _I ] and geomagnetic indices [aa and ζ]. The Kuramoto model is described for the particular case of two oscillators connected by symmetric coupling with quasi-stationary behavior, and its properties are investigated. By solving an inverse problem, we reconstruct the evolution of the couplings between pairs of indices [R _I and aa, R _I and ζ, aa and ζ], and interpret these in terms of the physics of the solar dynamo. The de-correlation between R _I and geomagnetic indices found in Solar Cycle 20 by Le Mouël et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 117, A09103, 2012) is successfully reproduced by the Kuramoto model and corresponds to the alternation of the leading oscillator. Application of the Kuramoto model to the cross-correlations [C(R _I ,ζ) and C(aa,ζ)] for ζ-indices computed in eight geomagnetic stations shows the latitudinal dependence of the mean phase difference. We discuss these results in terms of the solar-wind contribution to local geomagnetic indices [ζ].     

Solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events and the related solar-terrestrial phenomena

We investigated the solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events (SPEs, peak flux ≥1000 pfu) and the solar-terrestrial phenomena associated with the strong SPEs during solar cycles 21–23. The results show that 37 strong SPEs were registered over this period of time, where 20 strong SPEs were originated from the super active regions (SARs) and 28 strong SPEs were accompanied by the X-class flares. Most strong SPEs were not associated with the ground level enhancement (GLE) event. Most strong SPEs occurred in the descending phases of the solar cycles. The weaker the solar cycle, the higher the proportion of strong SPES occurred in the descending phase of the cycle. The number of the strong SPEs that occurred within a solar cycle is poorly associated with the solar cycle size. The intensity of the SPEs is highly dependent of the location of their source regions, with the super SPEs (≥20000 pfu) distributed around solar disk center. A super SPE was always accompanied by a fast shock driven by the associated coronal mass ejection and a great geomagnetic storm. The source location of strongest GLE event is distributed in the well-connected region. The SPEs associated with super GLE events (peak increase rate ≥100%) which have their peak flux much lower than 10000 pfu were not accompanied by an intense geomagnetic storm.     

Detection and rapid recovery of the Sutter's Mill meteorite fall as a model for future recoveries worldwide

The Sutter's Mill C‐type meteorite fall occurred on 22 April 2012 in and around the town of Coloma, California. The exact location of the meteorite fall was determined within hours of the event using a combination of eyewitness reports, weather radar imagery, and seismometry data. Recovery of the first meteorites occurred within 2 days and continued for months afterward. The recovery effort included local citizens, scientists, and meteorite hunters, and featured coordination efforts by local scientific institutions. Scientific analysis of the collected meteorites revealed characteristics that were available for study only because the rapid collection of samples had minimized terrestrial contamination/alteration. This combination of factors—rapid and accurate location of the event, participation in the meteorite search by the public, and coordinated scientific investigation of recovered samples—is a model that was widely beneficial and should be emulated in future meteorite falls. The tools necessary to recreate the Sutter's Mill recovery are available, but are currently underutilized in much of the world. Weather radar networks, scientific institutions with interest in meteoritics, and the interested public are available globally. Therefore, it is possible to repeat the Sutter's Mill recovery model for future meteorite falls around the world, each for relatively little cost with a dedicated researcher. Doing so will significantly increase the number of fresh meteorite falls available for study, provide meteorite material that can serve as the nuclei of new meteorite collections, and will improve the public visibility of meteoritics research.     

Ground-based electromagnetic studies combined with remote sensing based on Demeter mission: A way to monitor active faults and volcanoes

The identification of magnetic, electric and electromagnetic (EM) precursory signals related to volcanic activities and earthquakes is still a matter of debate. Some examples are now well established, but they are often based on a few parameters recorded on sparse equipments and with no multi-disciplinary approach. Demeter program takes into account a more complete approach of EM phenomena related to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, by combining both ground-based and satellite EM monitoring, from direct current to several kilohertz, i.e. from ULF, ELF to VLF frequency domains.The research program stands in two parts: one is the identification of EM signals at the satellite altitude and the other consists in detailed studies in a few pilot sites on the ground. Two main test sites have been considered: La Fournaise volcano in Réunion Island and the seismogenic Corinth rift in Greece. Both sites allow for performing EM studies in a multi-disciplinary environment.La Fournaise volcano erupts on average two times a year. The self-recording Demeter EM station is composed of three modules measuring the components of the magnetic and electric fields in three different frequency domains: DC to 0.5 Hz, 0.0033-160 Hz and 8-10 kHz. Preliminary observations made during the May 2003 eruption show that electric and magnetic signals appeared before the eruption. Some signals present sharp step-like variations, with amplitudes up to several hundreds mV per km and a few hour duration, followed by periods with a higher spectral frequency content. The frequency of these signals can be of several tens of Hz.The Corinth rift is a highly seismic area, frequently affected by seismic swarms. In 2004 the region has experienced tens of earthquakes of magnitude less than 4.6. A Demeter station has been set up on the Trizonia Island along the northern mainland coast, where a 30 km long seismic gap has been identified. The station is composed of two modules recording the three components of the magnetic field and the two horizontal components of the electric field in the ULF and ELF-VLF frequency bands. The audiomagnetotelluric soundings show that the station is close to a regional conductive fault connected to the sea. The first 4 months of observation clearly show that 29 earthquakes, even of low magnitude (M?2.8), occurring at less than 140 km of distance of the station, have generated electric signals when the seismic waves have passed the EM station. For a given magnitude of the earthquake, the energy of the electric signal is independent of the distance between the focal source and the EM station, which points out local electric source mechanisms. The greater the magnitude of the earthquake, the greater is the energy of the electric signal is. The co-seismic electric signals have the same morphology as that of the passing seismic wave, and there is no noticeable time delay between the electric and the seismic signals. This simultaneity between the seismic and the electric signal is best explained by the generation of an electrokinetic effect due to the passage of the seismic wave through the seawater-saturated ground.