Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates

Droughts have adverse socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental impacts that can be reduced by assessing and forecasting drought behavior. The paper presents detailed analyses of both meteorological and vegetative droughts over the period from 1970 to 2005. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been used to quantify drought according to severity, magnitude and spatial distribution at the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Results suggest that the country faced during the past 35 years frequent non-uniform drought periods in an irregular repetitive manner. Drought severity, magnitudes and life span increased with time from normal to extreme levels especially at last decade reaching magnitudes of more than 4. Generated NDVI maps spatial analyses estimate crop-area percentage damage due to severe and extremely severe drought events occurred during October, December, and February of 2000 to be about 10%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. In response to drought spatial extent, the paper suggest the presence of two drought types, local drought acting on one or more geographical climatic parts and national drought, of less common but more severe, that extend over the whole country. Droughts in Jordan act intensively during January, February and March and tend to shift position with time by alternative migrations from southern desert parts to northern desert parts and from the eastern desert parts to highlands and Jordan Rift Valley (JRV) at the west. The paper also investigates the potential use of Global Climate Model’s (GCM) to forecast future drought events from 2010 till 2040. Tukey HSD test indicates that ECHAM5OM GCM is capable to predicted rainfall variation at the country and suggests future droughts to become more intensive at the northern and southern desserts with 15% rainfall reduction factor, followed by 10% reduction at the JRV, and 5% at the highlands.     

A geologic study of the Juan del Grijalva landslide,the most important mass movement during the last century in Mexico

On November 4th 2007, along the Grijalva River in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, has occurred one of the largest landslides ever known. This landslide, known as Juan del Grijalva, destroyed the town of the same name, killing 20 people, and moved 55 million cubic meters of rock and debris down slope to completely block the Grijalva River. In order to understand the characteristics and factors that triggered the Juan del Grijalva landslide, geologic studies were conducted at the site. The results indicate that the landslide was composed of a lithologic sequence of thin-bedded shales and thin to medium-thick-bedded sandstones. This was faulted into several blocks dipping in the same sense as the mass movement. The main triggering factor was the increment of the pore pressure into the lithologic unit due to water saturation after 5 days of heavy rain before the incident. According to records from the last century, the Juan del Grijalva mass movement represents one of the largest mass movements recorded all over the world. The risk conditions of the area after the landslide lead to the rapid construction of an artificial channel to drain the accumulating mass of water upstream and therefore prevent a future catastrophic inundation down stream.     

Extending the double-difference location technique to mining applications part I: Numerical study

The location of the seismic event hypocenter is the very first task undertaken when studying any seismological problem. The accuracy of the solution can significantly influence consecutive stages of analysis, so there is a continuous demand for new, more efficient and accurate location algorithms. It is important to recognize that there is no single universal location algorithm which will perform equally well in any situation. The type of seismicity, the geometry of the recording seismic network, the size of the controlled area, tectonic complexity, are the most important factors influencing the performance of location algorithms. In this paper we propose a new location algorithm called the extended double difference (EDD) which combines the insensitivity of the double-difference (DD) algorithm to the velocity structure with the special demands imposed by mining: continuous change of network geometry and a very local recording capability of the network for dominating small induced events. The proposed method provides significantly better estimation of hypocenter depths and origin times compared to the classical and double-difference approaches, the price being greater sensitivity to the velocity structure than the DD approach. The efficiency of both algorithms for the epicentral coordinates is similar.     

Strain analysis and stratigraphic status of Nongkhya,Sumer and Mawmaram conglomerates of Shillong basin,Meghalaya, India

Shillong basin, one of the Purana basins of the Indian peninsula is situated in the central and eastern parts of the Shillong plateau of NE India. Metasedimentary and metavolcanic rocks of the basin are of Mesoproterozoic age and lithostratigraphically belong to Shillong Group (erstwhile Shillong series) comprising Lower Metapelitic Formation (LMF) and Upper Quartzitic Formation (UQF). A long, persistent, faulted and tectonically attenuated conglomerate known as Nongkhya-Sumer-Mawmaram-conglomerate separates these two formations. In the present work, quantitative strain analyses of the pebbles of Sumer, Nongkhya and Mawmaram conglomerates of Ri-Bhoi and West Khasi Hills districts of Meghalaya are carried out using manual and computerized programmes. Eight different techniques for intrapebble, interpebble and bulk rock strain estimation are applied and results are compared systematically. Sumer and Mawmaram conglomerates bear the testimony of broadly flattening type of deformation (0 < k < 1) while Nongkhya conglomerate shows constriction type (1 < k < α). The change in strain ellipsoid shape from Nongkhya to Mawmaram area is accompanied by a change of fabric from S < L to L < S tectonites. Affinity of rotational strain is more in Nongkhya conglomerate as compared to Sumer and Mawmaram conglomerates. The compactness of pebbles is high in case of Nongkhya conglomerate and low to moderate in Sumer and Mawmaram conglomerates indicating high strain in Nongkhya conglomerate (northeastern part of Shillong basin) relative to Sumer and Mawmaram conglomerates (southwestern part of Shillong basin). Thus strain magnitude increases from SW to NE direction of the Shillong basin.     

Magnetotelluric sounding results in eastern Tibetan Plateau

The results of Zayü-Qingshuihe MT sounding profile carried out in eastern Tibetan Plateau are presented in this paper. Using 2-D RRI method, the resistivity distribution with depth is obtained along the profile. It is featured by the resistivity zones in the horizontal direction and layers in the vertical direction. The Bangong-Nujiang suture zone and Jinshajiang suture zone are both important electrical conductivity-separating zones in the plateau, and the former is a zone with relatively low resistivity while the latter is an electrical conductivity gradient zone. The highly electrical conductive bodies in the mid and lower crust of northern Qiangtang and Bayan Har Terrain might be caused by regional melting due to shear heating during the process of subduction in tectonic evolution.     

Set-asides for carbon sequestration: implications for permanence and leakage

This paper examines the potential role of forest set-asides in global carbon sequestration policy. While set asides that protect forests from timber harvests and land-use conversion may alleviate concerns with permanence, and they may provide large ancillary environmental benefits, they may also lead to large leakage. This paper uses a global land use and forestry model to examine the efficiency of three crediting schemes for set-asides. The results show that if set-asides are integrated into a global forestry carbon sequestration program that includes a wide range of other management options, then 300 million hectares of land would be set-aside, and up to 128 Pg C could be sequestered in global forests by 2105. Under alternative policies that focus exclusively on set-asides, more forestland can be set-asides, up to 3.2 billion hectare, but these policies invite large leakage in the near-term, and in the long-run, they less net carbon is removed from the atmosphere. Specifically, leakage is estimated to be 47–52%, depending on the policy, and by the end of the century, up to 17% less carbon will be sequestered in all forests.     

Recession of Milam Glacier,Kumaun Himalaya,Observed via Lichenometric Dating of Moraines

Glaciers being very sensitive to climate change have been identified as one of the best indicators of climate change and evidences have proved that most of the Himalayan glaciers have receded with an increased rate during the recent past under the influence of global warming. Lichenometric study was carried out on the moraines of Milam glacier (located in Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand) with the help of lichen species Dimelaena oreina having an average annual growth rate of 1.31 mm. The study revealed that Milam glacier has receded 1450 m in last 69.37 years with an average recession rate of 20.90 m/year. Since lichenometric studies are cost effective and ecofriendly in comparison to carbon dating, satellite and remote sensing based studies and also reliable, hence, it should be promoted in Himalaya which is an abode of glaciers.     

Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Carbon emissions—and hence fossil fuel combustion—must decline rapidly if warming is to be held below 1.5 or 2 °C. Yet fossil fuels are so deeply entrenched in the broader economy that a rapid transition poses the challenge of significant transitional disruption. Fossil fuels must be phased out even as access to energy services for basic needs and for economic development expands, particularly in developing countries. Nations, communities, and workers that are economically dependent on fossil fuel extraction will need to find a new foundation for livelihoods and revenue. These challenges are surmountable. In principle, societies could undertake a decarbonization transition in which they anticipate the transitional disruption, and cooperate and contribute fairly to minimize and alleviate it. Indeed, if societies do not work to avoid that disruption, a decarbonization transition may not be possible at all. Too many people may conclude they will suffer undue hardship, and thus undermine the political consensus required to undertake an ambitious transition. The principles and framework laid out here are offered as a contribution to understanding the nature of the potential impacts of a transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs of avoiding them, and guidance for prioritizing which fossil resources can still be extracted.     

On the Correlation between Convective Plume Updrafts and Downdrafts,Lidar Reflectivity and Depolarization Ratio

We question the correlation between vertical velocity (w) on the one hand and the occurrence of convective plumes in lidar reflectivity (i.e. range corrected backscatter signal Pz ²) and depolarization ratio (Δ) on the other hand in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Thermal vertical motion is directly investigated using vertical velocities measured by a ground-based Doppler lidar operating at 2 μm. This lidar provides also simultaneous measurements of lidar reflectivity. In addition, a second lidar 200 m away provides reflectivities at 0.53 and 1 μm and depolarization ratio at 0.53 μm. The time series from the two lidars are analyzed in terms of linear correlation coefficient (ρ). The main result is that the plume-like structures provided by lidar reflectivity within the CBL as well as the CBL height are not a clear signature of updrafts. It is shown that the lidar reflectivity within the CBL is frequently anti-correlated (ρ (w, Pz ² )) with the vertical velocity. On the contrary, the correlation coefficient between the depolarization ratio and the vertical velocity ρ (w, Δ ) is always positive, showing that the depolarization ratio is a fair tracer of updrafts. The importance of relative humidity on the correlation coefficient is discussed. An erratum to this article can be found at     

High resolution facies record on late Holocene flood plain sediments from lower reaches of Narmada Valley,Western India

A high resolution quantitative granulometric record for site Uchediya [21°43′2.22″ N, 73° 6′26.22″ E; 10 m a. s. l.] gives understanding towards accretion history of the late Holocene flood plain in the lower reaches of Narmada River. Two sediment facies (sandy and muddy) and seven subfacies (sandy subfacies: St_MS+FS+CS, Sm_FS+MS, Sl_FS+VFS, and St_{MS + CS}; muddy subfacies: Fm_SILT+VFS+FS, Fm_SILT+VFS (O) and Fm_SILT+VFS (T)) are identified based on cluster analysis supplemented with sedimentary structures observed in field and other laboratory data. Changes in hydrodynamics are further deduced based on various sedimentological parameters and their ratios leading to arrive at a depositional model.