On using mixed-layer transport parameterizations with radiometric surface temperature for computing regional scale sensible heat flux

Recent mixed-layer formulations for computing large-scale surface energy fluxes under daytime convective conditions do not require the estimation of surface-layer parameters, such as the roughness lengths for momentum and heat. This greatly simplifies approaches using operational satellite measurements of surface temperature for computing the surface energy balance at regional scales because the surface roughness parameters are not well known for many landscapes. The utility of such mixed-layer formulations is tested using data from several recent multidisciplinary field experiments (HAPEX-MOBILHY, FIFE and Monsoon 90). The results indicate that specific mixed-layer formulations adequately simulate surface sensible heat fluxes in the grassland and shrubland sites. However, use of the original values of proposed empirical coefficients for the forested site yield poor results. This is probably due to the fact that the forested site has significantly different surface geometry and associated distribution of temperature among the surface components (especially the relative importance of soil background temperatures) compared to the other sites. Therefore, the relationship between aerodynamic and radiometric surface temperature may have greatly differed between the forested site and the other locations. However, differences in aerodynamic roughness between the experimental sites were not correlated with changes required in the values of the coefficients. Instead, a two-source model which makes the distinction between aerodynamic and radiative temperature is proposed, as a means to determine which surface properties significantly affect the magnitude of the mixed-layer coefficients.     

Scales of nutrient-limited phytoplankton productivity in Chesapeake Bay

The scales on which phytoplankton biomass vary in response to variable nutrient inputs depend on the nutrient status of the plankton community and on the capacity of consumers to respond to increases in phytoplankton productivity. Overenrichment and associated declines in water quality occur when phytoplankton growth rate becomes nutrient-saturated, the production and consumption of phytoplankton biomass become uncoupled in time and space, and phytoplankton biomass becomes high and varies on scales longer than phytoplankton generation times. In Chesapeake Bay, phytoplankton growth rates appear to be limited by dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) during spring when biomass reaches its annual maximum and by dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) during summer when phytoplankton growth rates are highest. However, despite high inputs of DIN and dissolved silicate (DSi) relative to DIP (molar ratios of N∶P and Si∶P>100), seasonal accumulations of phytoplankton biomass within the salt-intruded-reach of the bay appear to be limited by riverine DIN supply while the magnitude of the spring diatom bloom is governed by DSi supply. Seasonal imbalances between biomass production and consumption lead to massive accumulations of phytoplankton biomass (often>1,000 mg Chl-a m^?2) during spring, to spring-summer oxygen depletion (summer bottom water <20% saturation), and to exceptionally high levels of annual phytoplankton production (>400 g m^?2 yr^?1). Nitrogen-dependent seasonal accumulations of phytoplankton biomass and annual production occur as a consequence of differences in the rates and pathways of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling within the bay and underscore the importance of controlling nitrogen inputs to the mesohaline and lower reaches of the bay.     

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands,Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.     

The protective role of mountain forests

While additional research in needed on the hydrological and erosional effects of changes in mountain forests, sufficient knowledge is available, or may be inferred from existing research, to question, refute or reaffirm some of the conventional wisdom about the protective role of these forests. A major difficulty is sorting out the consequences of natural processes from those caused by anthropogenic actions. The effects of alteration or removal/conversion of mountain forests on rainfall, surface erosion, mass erosion, sediment, floods and low flows is reviewed. It is suggested that a key factor in the cause/effect scenario is the size of the catchment unit being appraised.     

EPA's Approach to Vadose Zone Monitoring at RCRA Facilities

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently proposed to amend federal regulations to require vadose zone monitoring at certain hazardous waste facilities. To support this proposal, EPA evaluated previous policy on vadose zone monitoring and examined advances in vadose zone monitoring technology. Changes in EPA vadose zone monitoring policy were driven by demonstrated advances in the available monitoring technology and improvements in understanding of vadose zone processes/When used under the appropriate conditions, currently available direct and indirect monitoring methods can effectively detect contamination that may leak from hazardous waste facilities into the vadose zone. Direct techniques examined include soil-core monitoring and soil-pore liquid monitoring. Indirect techniques examined include soil-gas monitoring, neutron moderation, complex resistivity, ground-penetrating radar, and electrical resistivity. Properly designed vadose zone monitoring networks can act as a complement to saturated zone monitoring networks at numerous hazardous waste facilities. At certain facilities, particularly those in arid climates where the saturated zone is relatively deep, effective vadose zone monitoring may allow a reduction in the scope of saturated zone monitoring programs.     

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.     

Stable Isotope Ratios: Hurricane Olivia

The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of rains from HurricaneOlivia (1994) in the eastern Pacific were measured. The rains werecollected on 24 and 25 September during airplane flights conducted at anelevation of 3 km. Hurricane Olivia peaked in intensity to a category-4storm between the two dates. Isotope ratios of rains from HurricaneOlivia were markedly lower ( ¹⁸O = –13.9to –28.8) than that of rain collected from a thunderstormat an elevation of 2.3 km outside the influence of Olivia (¹⁸O = –3.8). A distinct decrease in isotoperatios from the first day to the next ( ¹⁸O =–18.4 to –21.9) in Hurricane Olivia wasattributed to decreased updraft velocities and outflow aloft. Thisshifted the isotopic water mass balance so that fewer hydrometeors werelifted and more ice descended to flight level. A decrease in the averagedeuterium excess from the first day to the next (d = 15.5 to 7.1)was attributed to an increase in the relative humidity of the watervapor `source' area. We hypothesize that the `source' region for therain was in the boundary layer near the storm center and that becausethe hurricane was at peak intensity prior to the second day the relative humidity was higher.     

Mercury concentrations in the fur of steller sea lions and northern fur seals from Alaska

We compared total mercury (THg) concentrations in the fur of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) from the depleted Pribilof Islands population with those of both declining and thriving populations of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) from Prince William Sound (PWS) and Southeast Alaska (SEA), respectively. Relatively low wet weight concentrations (ranges) of THg were detected in the fur of Steller sea lion (SSL) pups (0.90-3.14 microg/g) and juveniles (0.56-6.75 microg/g) from both areas in 1998 and 2000 compared to northern fur seal (NFS) pups (3.15-8.14 microg/g) in 2000. The mean concentration +/- SD for SSLs sampled were 1.46 +/- 0.64 microg/g for pups (n = 22) and 2.74 +/- 2.89 microg/g for juveniles (n = 6). Analyses indicated higher THg concentrations from SSL pups from PWS compared to the SEA. Mean +/- SD. THg in the NFS pups was 4.90 +/- 1.42 microg/g (n = 34) and for post-partum dams was 7.84 +/- 1.78 microg/g (n = 12).