A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions

The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical forecast of the marine surge

Natural Hazards - This paper studies different machine learning methods for solving the regression problem of estimating the marine surge value given meteorological data. The marine surge is...     

Sedimentary facies and paleoenvironmental interpretation of a Holocene marsh in the Gironde Estuary in France

1Introduction Since the last glacial maximum, the Holocenehas been marked by a rapid rise in sea level. After6 000 a BP, the present-day level was reached andthe rate of sea-level rise (SLR) decreased rapidly(Morzadec -Kerfourn, 1974; Kidson, 1986 ).These…     

Sunken wood habitat for thiotrophic symbiosis in mangrove swamps

Large organic falls to the benthic environment, such as dead wood or whale bones, harbour organisms relying on sulfide-oxidizing symbionts. Nothing is known however, concerning sulfide enrichment at the wood surface and its relation to wood colonization by sulfide-oxidizing symbiotic organisms.In this study we combined in situ hydrogen sulfide and pH measurements on sunken wood, with associated fauna microscopy analyses in a tropical mangrove swamp. This shallow environment is known to harbour thiotrophic symbioses and is also abundantly supplied with sunken wood. A significant sulfide enrichment at the wood surface was revealed. A 72 h sequence of measurements emphasized the wide fluctuation of sulfide levels (0.1–>100 μM) over time with both a tidal influence and rapid fluctuations. Protozoans observed on the wood surface were similar to Zoothamnium niveum and to vorticellids. Our SEM observations revealed their association with ectosymbiotic bacteria, which are likely to be sulfide-oxidizers. These results support the idea that sunken wood surfaces constitute an environment suitable for sulfide-oxidizing symbioses.     

Spurious diapycnal mixing in terrain-following coordinate models: The problem and a solution

In this paper, we identify a crucial numerical problem in sigma coordinate models, leading to unacceptable spurious diapycnal mixing. This error is a by-product of recent advances in numerical methods, namely the implementation of high-order diffusive advection schemes. In the case of ROMS, spurious mixing is produced by its third-order upwind advection scheme, but our analysis suggests that all diffusive advection schemes would behave similarly in all sigma models. We show that the common idea that spurious mixing decreases with resolution is generally false. In a coarse-resolution regime, spurious mixing increases as resolution is refined, and may reach its peak value when eddy-driven lateral mixing becomes explicitly resolved. At finer resolution, diffusivities are expected to decrease but with values that only become acceptable at resolutions finer than the kilometer. The solution to this problem requires a specifically designed advection scheme. We propose and validate the RSUP3 scheme, where diffusion is split from advection and is represented by a rotated biharmonic diffusion scheme with flow-dependent hyperdiffusivity satisfying the Peclet constraint. The rotated diffusion operator is designed for numerical stability, which includes improvements of linear stability limits and a clipping method adapted to the sigma-coordinate. Realistic model experiments in a southwest Pacific configuration show that RSUP3 is able to preserve low dispersion and diffusion capabilities of the original third-order upwind scheme, while preserving water mass characteristics. There are residual errors from the rotated diffusion operator, but they remain acceptable. The use of a constant diffusivity rather than the Peclet hyperdiffusivity tends to increase these residual errors which become unacceptable with Laplacian diffusion. Finally, we have left some options open concerning the use of time filters as an alternative to spatial diffusion. A temporal discretization approach to the present problem (including implicit discretization) will be reported in a following paper.