Sediment connectivity: a framework for understanding sediment transfer at multiple scales

A major challenge for geomorphologists is to scale up small‐magnitude processes to produce landscape form, yet existing approaches have been found to be severely limited. New ways to scale erosion and transfer of sediment are thus needed. This paper evaluates the concept of sediment connectivity as a framework for understanding processes involved in sediment transfer across multiple scales. We propose that the concept of sediment connectivity can be used to explain the connected transfer of sediment from a source to a sink in a catchment, and movement of sediment between different zones within a catchment: over hillslopes, between hillslopes and channels, and within channels. Using fluvial systems as an example we explore four scenarios of sediment connectivity which represent end‐members of behaviour from fully linked to fully unlinked hydrological and sediment connectivity. Sediment‐travel distance – when combined with an entrainment parameter reflecting the frequency–magnitude response of the system – maps onto these end‐members, providing a coherent conceptual model for the upscaling of erosion predictions. This conceptual model could be readily expanded to other process domains to provide a more comprehensive underpinning of landscape‐evolution models. Thus, further research on the controls and dynamics of travel distances under different modes of transport is fundamental. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio‐temporal patterns of channel changes in response to a major flood event: the case of the Magra River (central–northern Italy)

On October 25^th 2011, the Magra River (central–northern Italy) was affected by a significant flood event with an estimated return interval ranging from 30 to 200 years. This study investigates the morphological responses of the Magra River to this major flood event with the aims of (i) documenting the channel changes which occurred in response to the flood; (ii) analysing this response within the context of the historical trend of width changes; (iii) investigating the possible factors controlling the spatial pattern and the intensity of the observed changes. Significant channel widening was documented along the entire length studied (about 34 km), ranging from 3% to 90% of the pre‐flood channel width. Braided reaches were characterized by the most severe planimetric changes. Although characterized by high rates of change, these variations are, however, amply included in the historical range of channel width variability over approximately the last 150 years (from 1877 to present day), and are comparable with ( though generally lower than) the channel width of the 1950s. Statistical analyses (simple and multiple regressions) between the observed changes in channel width and a series of selected morphological and hydraulic controlling factors showed no robust correlations to explain the spatial pattern and the variability of channel adjustments. Instead, major adjustments occurred along reaches characterized by the confluence of those streams draining the sub‐catchments where the storm was concentrated. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Framework of aftershock fragility assessment–case studies: older California reinforced concrete building frames

Current seismic design codes and damage estimation tools neglect the influence of successive events on structures. However, recent earthquakes have demonstrated that structures damaged during an initial event (mainshock) are more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). This increased vulnerability to damage translates to increased likelihood of loss of use, property, and life. Thus, a reliable risk assessment tool is required that characterizes the risk of the undamaged structure subjected to an initial event and the risk of the damaged structure under subsequent events. In this paper, a framework for development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a building damaged during a mainshock will exhibit a given damage state following one or more aftershocks. Thus, the framework provides a method for characterizing the risk associated with damage accumulation in the structure. The framework includes the following: (i) creation of a numerical model of the structure; (ii) characterization of building damage states; (iii) generation of a suite of mainshock–aftershocks; (iv) mainshock–aftershock analyses; and (v) development of aftershock fragility curves using probabilistic aftershock demand models, defined as a linear regression of aftershock demand–intensity pairs in a logarithmic space, and damage‐state prediction models. The framework is not limited to a specific structure type but requires numerical models defining structural response and linking structural response with damage. In the current study, non‐ductile RC frames (low‐rise, mid‐rise, and high‐rise) are selected as case studies for the application of the framework. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of uncertainty of lithofacies, conductivity and porosity distributions on stochastic interpretations of a field scale tracer test

We investigate the importance of selecting two different methodologies for the determination of hydraulic conductivity from available grain-size distributions on the stochastic modeling of the depth-averaged breakthrough curve observed during a forced-gradient tracer test experiment. The latter was performed in the Lauswiesen alluvial aquifer, located near the city of Tübingen, Germany, by injecting NaBr into a well at a distance of about 50 m from a pumping well. We also examine the joint effect of the choice of the transport model adopted to describe solute transport at the site and the way the spatial distribution of porosity is assessed. In the absence of direct measurements of porosity, we consider: (a) the model used by Riva et al. (J Contam Hydrol 88:92–118, 2006; J Contam Hydrol 101:1–13, 2008), which relates the natural logarithms of effective porosity and conductivity through an empirical, experimentally-based, linear relationship derived for a nearby experimental site; and (b) a model based on a commonly used relationship linking the total porosity to the coefficient of uniformity of grain size distributions. Transport is described in terms of a purely advective process and/or by including mass exchange processes between mobile and immobile regions. Modeling of flow and transport is performed within a Monte Carlo framework, upon conceptualizing the aquifer as a random composite medium. Our results indicate that the model adopted to describe the correlation between conductivity and porosity and the way grain-sieve information are incorporated to depict the heterogeneous distribution of hydraulic conductivity can have relevant effects in the interpretation of the data at the site. All the conceptual models employed to describe the structural heterogeneity of the system and transport features can reasonably reproduce the global characteristics of the experimental depth-averaged breakthrough curve. Specific details, such as the peak concentration and the time of first arrival, can be better reproduced by a double porosity transport model when a correlation between conductivity and porosity based on grain size information at the site is considered. The best prediction of the late-time behavior of the measured breakthrough curves, in terms of the observed heavy tailing, is offered by directly linking porosity distribution to the spatial variability of particle size information.     

Thermal Variability in a Tidal River

In this paper, we discuss observations of temperature variability in the tidal portion of the San Joaquin River in California. The San Joaquin River makes up the southern portion of the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta, the eastern end of San Francisco Bay. Observations made in August 2004 and August 2005 show significant diurnal variations in temperature in response to surface heat exchange. However, to account for observed changes in heat content a sizeable downstream heat flux (approximately 100 W m⁻²) must be added to the surface heat flux. To account for this flux via Fickian dispersion, a flow-dependent dispersion coefficient varying from 500 to 4,000 m² s⁻¹ is needed. These values are much larger than would be predicted for a river of this size, suggesting that the complex topology of the Delta greatly enhances longitudinal dispersion. Building on these observations, we present a simple theory that explores how the subtidal temperature field varies in response to changes in flow rate, dispersion, and heat exchange.     

Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: An editorial essay

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3–5 m SLR. In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1–5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.     

Verification of a Synthesized Method for the Calculation of Low-Level Climatological Wind Fields Using a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model

Low-level climatological wind fields over the La Plata River region of South America are synthesized with a dry, hydrostatic mesoscale boundary-layer numerical model. The model is forced at the upper boundary with the 1200 UTC local radiosonde observations and at the lower boundary with a land-river differential heating function defined from the daily meteorological observations of the region. The climatological wind field is defined as the mean value of a series of individual daily forecasts, employing two methods. The simplified method considers a 192-member ensemble (16 wind directions and 12 wind-speed classes at the upper boundary). Each member has a probability of occurrence that is determined from the 1959–1984 observations; the daily method uses a total of 3,248 days with available data during the same period. In both methods each realization is a daily forecast from which the mean wind distributions at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 local standard time are calculated and compared to the observations of five meteorological stations in the region. The validation of the climatological wind fields for both methods is evaluated by means of the root-mean-square error of the wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed by wind sector. The results obtained with the two methods are similar, and the errors in wind speed are always smaller than those in wind direction. The combined errors of wind direction and wind speed show that the ensemble method is outperformed by the daily method, on average by meteorological station in only one out of five of them, and on average by the time of the day in only one out of 4 h. The conclusion of the study is that the ensemble method is an appropriate methodology for determining high resolution, low-level climatological wind fields, with the boundary-layer model applied to a region with a strong diurnal cycle of surface thermal contrast. The proposed methodology is of particular utility for synthesizing wind fields over regions with limited meteorological observations, since the 192-member matrix can be easily defined with few observing points, as well as in the case of relatively incomplete records.     

The Role of the Solar Cycle in the Relationship Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures

The North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. It has been shown that it clearly relates to changes in meteorological variables, such as surface temperature, at hemispherical scales. However, recent studies have revealed that the NAO spatial pattern also depends upon solar forcing. Therefore, its effects on meteorological variables must vary depending upon this factor. Moreover, it could be that the Sun affects climate through variability patterns, a hypothesis that is the focus of this study. We find that the relationship between the NAO/AO and hemispheric temperature varies depending upon solar activity. The results show a positive significant correlation only when solar activity is high. Also, the results support the idea that solar activity influences tropospheric climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere via the fluctuations of the stratospheric polar vortex .     

Mineralogical controls on environmental mobility of arsenic from historic mine processing residues,New Zealand

Processing of arsenopyrite ore took place at Blackwater Au mine, New Zealand, between 1908 and 1951 and no rehabilitation was undertaken after mine closure. High As concentrations in solid processing residues (up to 40 wt% As) are due to secondary As minerals. Site pH regimes vary from 4.1 to circum-neutral. Originally, all processed As was present as arsenolite (arsenic trioxide polymorph, As^III), a by-product of arsenopyrite roasting. Near the roaster, scorodite precipitated as a result of the high dissolved As concentration during arsenolite dissolution. The formation of scorodite has two major consequences. Firstly, the scorodite precipitate cements the ground in the vicinity of the roaster area, thereby creating an impermeable surface crust (up to 30 wt% As) and encapsulating weathered arsenolite grains within the cement. Secondly, formation of scorodite temporarily immobilizes some of the dissolved As that is generated during nearby arsenolite dissolution. Where all the available arsenolite has dissolved, scorodite becomes soluble, and the dissolved As concentrations are controlled by scorodite solubility, which is at least two orders of magnitudes lower than arsenolite solubility. Downstream Eh conditions fall below the As^V/As^III boundary, so that scorodite does not precipitate and dissolved As concentrations are controlled by arsenolite solubility. Dissolved As reaches up to 52 mg/L in places, and exceeds the current WHO drinking water guideline of 0.01 mg/L by 5200 times. This study shows that dissolved As concentrations in discharge waters at historic mine sites are dependent on the processing technology and associated mineralogy.