Coming to the table: Early stakeholder engagement in marine spatial planning

From 2009 to 2011, marine spatial planning (MSP) rapidly gained visibility in the United States as a promising ocean management tool. A few small-scale planning efforts were completed in state waters, and the Obama Administration proposed a framework for large-scale regional MSP throughout the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. During that same time period, the authors engaged a variety of U.S ocean stakeholders in a series of dialogs with several goals: to share information about what MSP is or could be, to hear stakeholder views and concerns about MSP, and to foster better understanding between those who depend on ocean resources for their livelihood and ocean conservation advocates. The stakeholder meetings were supplemented with several rounds of in-depth interviews and a survey. Despite some predictable areas of conflict, project participants agreed on a number of issues related to stakeholder engagement in MSP: all felt strongly that government planners need to engage outsiders earlier, more often, more meaningfully, and through an open and transparent process. Equally important, the project affirmed the value of bringing unlike parties together at the earliest opportunity to learn, talk, and listen to others with whom they rarely engage.     

Collecting <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ophiocordyceps sinensis</Emphasis>: an emerging livelihood strategy in the Garhwal,Indian Himalaya

In the Garhwal of Uttarakhand, India, the Bhotiya, an ethnically and culturally distinct tribal group, were historically engaged in seasonal migration (i.e. transhumance) to take advantage of scarce mountain resources and trade relations with Tibet. This livelihood practice has all but disappeared. Households are adapting to these changing circumstances by engaging in the collection and sale of the valuable alpine medicinal fungus Ophiocordyceps sinensis, widely known as Cordyceps. The collection of this fungus has exploded, emerging as a lucrative yet high-risk livelihood strategy for many Bhotiya communities. The Bhotiyas’ historic herding and trade-based interactions and knowledge of these alpine environments where Cordyceps are found uniquely positions them to access this valuable biological resource. Elsewhere in the Himalayan region, some households are earning as much as two-thirds of their income from the collection of Cordyceps; in China Cordyceps is now listed as an endangered species due to intense over-exploitation in the Tibetan Plateau. This paper seeks to fill the void in the scientific literature on the social, ecological and economic aspects of the emerging Cordyceps trade in the Garhwal. Our study investigates the socio-spatial dimensions of Cordyceps collection in the high alpine meadows. We document how a fusion of local knowledge and practice with alpine mountain systems has served to reinvigorate the economic integrity of mountain communities at a time of rapid socio-economic change and to reimagine a new relationship between alpine resources and community well-being. The article offers suggestions to address the sustainability of both Cordyceps collection and livelihood activities which hinge on this fungus population. We find a need for (1) community-based conservation measures that are rooted in (2) secure resource access rights for local communities to continue sustainable collection and sale of Cordyceps and (3) participatory-and science-based processes for determining appropriate local collection numbers.     

BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.     

Geophysical implications of Izu–Bonin mantle wedge hydration from chemical geodynamic modeling

Using two-dimensional dynamic models of the Northern Izu–Bonin (NIB) subduction zone, we show that a particular localized low-viscosity (η_LV =  3.3 × 10¹⁹ − 4.0 × 10²⁰ Pa s), low-density (Δρ ∼ −10 kg/m³ relative to ambient mantle) geometry within the wedge is required to match surface observations of topography, gravity, and geoid anomalies. The hydration structure resulting in this low-viscosity, low-density geometry develops due to fluid release into the wedge within a depth interval from 150 to 350 km and is consistent with results from coupled geochemical and geodynamic modeling of the NIB subduction system and from previous uncoupled models of the wedge beneath the Japan arcs. The source of the fluids can be either subducting lithospheric serpentinite or stable hydrous phases in the wedge such as serpentine or chlorite. On the basis of this modeling, predictions can be made as to the specific low-viscosity geometries associated with geophysical surface observables for other subduction zones based on regional subduction parameters such as subducting slab age.     

Shaking‐table tests of flat‐bottom circular silos containing grain‐like material

According to Eurocode 8, the seismic design of flat‐bottom circular silos containing grain‐like material is based on a rough estimate of the inertial force imposed on the structure by the ensiled content during an earthquake: 80% of the mass of the content multiplied by the peak ground acceleration. A recent analytical consideration of the horizontal shear force mobilised within the ensiled material during an earthquake proposed by some of the authors has resulted in a radically reduced estimate of this load suggesting that, in practice, the effective mass of the content is significantly less than that specified. This paper describes a series of laboratory tests that featured shaking table and a silo model, which were conducted in order to obtain some experimental data to verify the proposed theoretical formulations and to compare with the established code provisions. Several tests have been performed with different heights of ensiled material – about 0.5 mm diameter Ballotini glass – and different magnitudes of grain–wall friction. The results indicate that in all cases, the effective mass is indeed lower than the Eurocode specification, suggesting that the specification is overly conservative, and that the wall–grain friction coefficient strongly affects the overturning moment at the silo base. At peak ground accelerations up to around 0.35 g, the proposed analytical formulation provides an improved estimate of the inertial force imposed on such structures by their contents. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neural network technique for identifying prognostic anomalies from low-frequency electromagnetic signals in the Kuril–Kamchatka region

In this paper, we suggest a technique for forecasting seismic events based on the very low and low frequency (VLF and LF) signals in the 10 to 50 Hz band using the neural network approach, specifically, the error back-propagation method (EBPM). In this method, the solution of the problem has two main stages: training and recognition (forecasting). The training set is constructed from the combined data, including the amplitudes and phases of the VLF/LF signals measured in the monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka region and the corresponding parameters of regional seismicity. Training the neural network establishes the internal relationship between the characteristic changes in the VLF/LF signals a few days before a seismic event and the corresponding level of seismicity. The trained neural network is then applied in a prognostic mode for automated detection of the anomalous changes in the signal which are associated with seismic activity exceeding the assumed threshold level. By the example of several time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, we demonstrate the efficiency of the neural network approach in the short-term forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes starting from M ≥ 5.5 from the nighttime variations in the amplitudes and phases of the LF signals on one radio path. We also discuss the results of the simultaneous analysis of the VLF/LF data measured on two partially overlapping paths aimed at revealing the correlations between the nighttime variations in the amplitude of the signal and seismic activity.     

Peculiarities of the within-year distribution of earthquakes in the Kuril region

Recent investigations have shown that the probability of the occurrence of earthquakes in a specified region depends on several factors, such as the latitude of the study region, as well as the lunar and solar tidal forces, which are governed by the mutual arrangement of bodies in the Sun-Earth-Moon system. The objective of our work is to prove that the irregularity of the within-year distribution of seismic events in the Pacific regions (the Kuril Islands and Hokkaido Island) is a statistically significant process, which is manifested in different ways for earthquakes with various source depths and energy levels. The hypothesis about the uniform within-year distribution of earthquakes is refuted for shallow events. However, it is shown that deep earthquakes are distributed uniformly. This work attempts for the first time to determine the stability degree of the within-year irregularity of seismic events with respect to the observation time interval (from 28 to 5 years). Two peaks are noted in the annual distribution of the earthquakes. The relation of the peaks of the within-year seismic activity to the Earth’s position on the ecliptic plane, as well as the relationships between the peaks, the magnitude range of the events, and the position of the specified subregion, is considered. The principal maximum of the seismic activity falls in the November-March period, which matches the minimum Earth-Sun distance.     

Biogeography and Genetic Diversity of Pearl Millet (Pennisetum glaucum) from Sahelian Africa

Sahelian Africa makes up the native range of pearl millet and the impact of domestication on the genetic diversity of wild, intermediate, and cultivated subspecies is still poorly understood. Wild populations are known to spontaneously germinate throughout this range and hybridize with cultivated material. To investigate genetic structure, populations of pearl millet from several African countries were analyzed at the morphological and molecular levels for diversity. Results demonstrate how little differentiation there is between subspecies and populations. It appears that pearl millet throughout the Sahel remains a metapopulation with large hybrid zones. These results have important implications for conservation of pearl millet.     

Trace-element composition and zoning in clinopyroxene- and amphibole-group minerals: Implications for element partitioning and evolution of carbonatites

The present work is a first comprehensive study of the trace-element composition and zoning in clinopyroxene- and amphibole-group minerals from carbonatites, incorporating samples from 14 localities worldwide (Afrikanda, Aley, Alnö, Blue River, Eden Lake, Huayangchuan, Murun, Oka, Ozernaya Varaka, Ozernyi, Paint Lake, Pinghe, Prairie Lake, Turiy Mys). The new electron-microprobe data presented here significantly extend the known compositional range of clinopyroxenes and amphiboles from carbonatites. These data confirm that calcic and sodic clinopyroxenes from carbonatites are not separated by a compositional gap, instead forming an arcuate trend from nearly pure diopside through intermediate aegirine–augite compositions confined to a limited range of CaFeSi₂O₆ contents (15–45 mol%) to aegirine with < 25 mol% of CaMgSi₂O₆ and a negligible proportion of CaFeSi₂O₆. A large set of LA-ICPMS data shows that the clinopyroxenes of different composition are characterized by relatively low levels of Cr, Co and Ni (≤ 40 ppm) and manifold variations in the concentration of trivalent lithophile and some incompatible elements (1–150 ppm Sc, 26–6870 ppm V, 5–550 ppm Sr, 90–2360 ppm Zr, and nil to 150 ppm REE), recorded in some cases within a single crystal. The relative contribution of clinopyroxenes to the whole-rock Rb, Nb, Ta, Th and U budget is negligible. The major-element compositional range of amphiboles spans from alkali- and Al-poor members (tremolite) to Na–Al-rich Mg- or, less commonly, Fe-dominant members (magnesiohastingsite, hastingsite and pargasite), to calcic–sodic, sodic and potassic–sodic compositions intermediate between magnesio-ferrikatophorite, richterite, magnesioriebeckite, ferri-nyböite and (potassic-)magnesio-arfvedsonite. In comparison with the clinopyroxenes, the amphiboles contain similar levels of tetravalent high-field-strength elements (Ti, Zr and Hf) and compatible transition elements (Cr, Co and Ni), but are capable of incorporating much higher concentrations of Sc and incompatible elements (up to 500 ppm Sc, 43 ppm Rb, 1470 ppm Sr, 1230 ppm Ba, 80 ppm Pb, 1070 ppm REE, 140 ppm Y, and 180 ppm Nb). In some carbonatites, amphiboles contribute as much as 25% of the Zr + Hf, 15% of the Sr and 35% of the Rb + Ba whole-rock budget. Both clinopyroxenes and amphiboles may also host a significant share (~ 10%) of the bulk heavy-REE content. Our trace-element data show that the partitioning of REE between clinopyroxene (and, in some samples, amphibole) and the melt is clearly bimodal and requires a revision of the existing models assuming single-site REE partitioning. Clinopyroxenes and amphiboles from carbonatites exhibit a diversity of zoning patterns that cannot be explained exclusively on the basis of crystal chemistry and relative compatibility of different trace-element in these minerals. Paragenetic analysis indicates that in most cases, the observed zoning patterns develop in response to removal of selected trace elements by phases co-precipitating with clinopyroxene and amphibole (especially magnetite, fluorapatite, phlogopite and pyrochlore). With the exception of magnesiohastingsite–richterite sample from Afrikanda, the invariability of trace-element ratios in the majority of zoned clinopyroxene and amphibole crystals implies that fluids are not involved in the development of zoning in these minerals. The implications of the new trace-element data for mineral exploration targeting REE, Nb and other types of carbonatite-hosted rare-metal mineralization are discussed.