Effect of loading duration on uncertainty in creep analysis of clay

Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis.     

Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Geographic information science and the analysis of place and health

The representation of place is a key theoretical advancement that geographic information science can offer to improve the understanding of environmental determinants of health, but developing robust computational representations of place requires a substantial departure from conventional notions of geographic representation in GIS. Unlike conventional GIS representations based on either objects or locations, we suggest that place representation should incorporate dynamic subjective, experiential, and relational aspects of place, as the influence of place on health behavior concerns not only the features that can be objectively observed at a particular location but also the environmental perceptions of the individual, as molded by biological, social, and experiential characteristics. In addition, assessments of environmental exposures on health outcomes should focus on individuals' time–activity patterns and microenvironment profiles, which form a potentially unique personalized exposure environment for each individual. Addressing these representational challenges via collaborative research has the potential to advance both geographic information science and health research.     

Chemical oceanographic influences on sediment accumulations of a carbonate ramp: Holocene Yucatan Shelf,Mexico

Global controls on the oceanographic influences on the nature of carbonate factories are broadly understood. The details of the influences of changes in temperature and nutrients across individual carbonate shelves are less well constrained, however. This study explores spatial and temporal variations in chemical oceanography along and across the Yucatan Shelf, a modern carbonate ramp, and how these factors relate to variable bottom character, sediment and sediment geochemistry. In‐situ sensors and remote‐sensing data indicate the sporadic presence of cool, upwelled water with low dissolved oxygen and elevated Chlorophyll‐a. This current‐driven, westward flow of upwelled water is most evident in a zone just offshore of the northern peninsular shoreline, but its influence wanes ca 75 km offshore and as the shore turns southward. The impacts of this water mass include a transitional photozoan–heterozoan assemblage with biosiliceous components, relict grains and common thin Holocene sediment accumulations nearshore; further offshore are coralgal reefs and expansive sand plains. Geochemical proxies of bulk sediment, including high δ¹⁸O and elevated HREE/LREE (heavy rare‐earth element/light rare‐earth element) ratios near, and downcurrent of, the upwelling source, are interpreted to represent the signal of nearshore, westward movement of the cool and nutrient‐rich, upwelled water. Collectively, these data emphasize how local processes such as upwelling and longshore transport can variably influence carbonate sediment accumulations and their geochemical signatures, both along and across individual shelves. These data and insights provide an analogue for the influences of spatial variability of water masses in the geological record, and for accurate interpretation of stratigraphic changes of sedimentary and geochemical proxy data in carbonate archives.     

Investigating the drivers of the unprecedented Chernobyl Power Plant Wildfire in April 2020 and its effects on 137Cs dispersal

Natural Hazards - Driving after natural disasters entails a substantial amount of stress; therefore, the number of motor vehicle crashes may increase. However, few studies have examined this issue....     

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...     

Effect of the Dry Ashing Method on Cadmium Isotope Measurements in Soil and Plant Samples

A dry ashing method is commonly used to remove organic material from samples prior to geochemical analysis. In the course of this study, the Cd isotope ratios of a series of soil and plant reference materials and samples were studied to evaluate the effect of the dry ashing method on measurement results of Cd isotope ratios. The samples were pre‐treated using the dry ashing method and high‐pressure bomb for comparison. The results show that the digestion using high‐pressure bombs did not lead to Cd loss, but using the dry ashing method would cause different proportions of Cd loss. The whole range of Cd isotope difference between two methods was from ?0.07‰ to 3.01‰. There was also an obvious difference in measured Cd isotope ratios from the same leaf sample pre‐treated independently by the dry ashing method, indicating that the amount of Cd loss and the effect on Cd isotope measurement during dry ashing is related to the properties of the samples. Therefore, dry ashing may not be appropriate for the removal of organic material in Cd isotope ratio measurement, especially for samples with high organic contents. The δ^114/110Cd values of reference materials NIST SRM 1573a and GSD‐30 are reported for the first time in this study.     

Age and origin of groundwater resources in the Ararat Valley,Armenia: a baseline study applying hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracers

Within the Ararat Valley (Armenia), a continuously growing water demand (for irrigation and fish farming) and a simultaneous decline in groundwater recharge (due to climate change) result in increasing stress on the local groundwater resources. This detrimental development is reflected by groundwater-level drops and an associated reduction of the area with artesian conditions in the valley centre. This situation calls for increasing efforts aimed at more sustainable water resources management. The aim of this baseline study was the collection of data that allows for study on the origin and age distribution of the Ararat Valley groundwater based on environmental tracers, namely stable (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) and radioactive (³⁵S, ³H) isotopes, as well as physical-chemical indicators. The results show that the Ararat Valley receives modern recharge, despite its (semi-)arid climate. While subannual groundwater residence times could be disproved (³⁵S), the detected ³H pattern suggests groundwater ages of several decades, with the oldest waters being recharged around 60 years ago. The differing groundwater ages are reflected by varying scatter of stable isotope and hydrochemical signatures. The presence of young groundwater (i.e., younger that the 1970s), some containing nitrate, indicates groundwater vulnerability and underscores the importance of increased efforts to achieve sustainable management of this natural resource. Since stable isotope signatures indicate the recharge areas to be located in the mountains surrounding the valley, these efforts must not be limited to the central part of the valley where most of the abstraction wells are located.