Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.     

Tsunami Hazard Posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and Southern New Hebrides Subduction Margins: An Assessment Based on Plate Boundary Kinematics, Interseismic Coupling, and Historical Seismicity

We assess the tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins. Neither of these subduction zones has produced tsunami large enough to cause significant damage in New Zealand over the past 150?years of well-recorded history. However, as this time frame is short compared to the recurrence interval for major tsunamigenic earthquakes on many of the Earth’s subduction zones, it should not be assumed that what has been observed so far is representative of the long term. For each of these two subduction zones we present plate kinematic and fault-locking results from block modelling of earthquake slip vector data and GPS velocities. The results are used to estimate the current rates of strain accumulation on the plate interfaces where large tsunamigenic earthquakes typically occur. We also review data on the larger historical earthquakes that have occurred on these margins, as well as the Global CMT catalogue of events since 1976. Using this information we have developed a set of scenarios for large earthquakes which have been used as initial conditions for the COMCOT tsunami code to estimate the subsequent tsunami propagation in the southwest Pacific, and from these the potential impact on New Zealand has been evaluated. Our results demonstrate that there is a significant threat posed to the Northland and Coromandel regions of New Zealand should a large earthquake (M _w ?8.5) occur on the southern or middle regions of the Kermadec Trench, and that a similarly large earthquake on the southern New Hebrides Trench has the potential to strongly impact on the far northern parts of New Zealand close to the southern end of the submarine Three Kings Ridge. We propose logic trees for the magnitude–frequency parameters of large earthquakes originating on each trench, which are intended to form the basis for future probabilistic studies.     

A comparison of integrated and discrete depth sampling for monitoring toxic species of Dinophysis

Dinophysis acuminata and Dinophysis acuta produce lipophilic toxins that cause most shellfish harvesting closures in the Atlantic coastal waters of Europe. Dinophysis often exhibit patchy distributions and sampling with conventional methods may fail to detect them. A 6-month calibration study in 2006, plus an additional sampling in 2010 were carried out in Galicia to compare Dinophysis counts obtained from weekly high vertical resolution bottle samples with depth-integrated hose samples. Counts with these two methods were comparable at some depth-ranges, but hose maxima were over one order of magnitude lower under thin-layer scenarios. Estimates from hose samplers should be used with caution in programmes using a "Dinophysis index", either to trigger shellfish sampling or to establish precautionary harvesting closures. In general, hose samplers provide reliable information on the occurrence of Dinophysis except under extreme site-specific hydrodynamic conditions. This study adds new information about the heterogeneous, specific vertical distributions of two Dinophysis spp.     

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.     

Temporal and spatial response of hyporheic zone geochemistry to a storm event

Although there has been recent focus on understanding spatial variability in hyporheic zone geochemistry across different morphological units under baseflow conditions, less attention has been paid to temporal responses of hyporheic zone geochemistry to non‐steady‐state conditions. We documented spatial and temporal variability of hyporheic zone geochemistry in response to a large‐scale storm event, Tropical Storm Irene (August 2011), across a pool–riffle–pool sequence along Chittenango Creek in Chittenango, NY, USA. We sampled stream water as well as pore water at 15 cm depth in the streambed at 14 locations across a 30 m reach. Sampling occurred seven times at daily intervals: once during baseflow conditions, once during the rising limb of the storm hydrograph, and five times during the receding limb. Principal component analysis was used to interpret temporal and spatial changes and dominant drivers in stream and pore water geochemistry (n = 111). Results show the majority of spatial variance in hyporheic geochemistry (62%) is driven by differential mixing of stream and ground water in the hyporheic zone. The second largest driver (17%) of hyporheic geochemistry was temporal dilution and enrichment of infiltrating stream water during the storm. Hyporheic sites minimally influenced by discharging groundwater (‘connected’ sites) showed temporal changes in water chemistry in response to the storm event. Connected sites within and upstream of the riffle reflected stream geochemistry throughout the storm, whereas downstream sites showed temporally lagged responses in some conservative and biogeochemically reactive solutes. This suggests temporal changes in hyporheic geochemistry at these locations reflect a combination of changes in infiltrating stream chemistry and hyporheic flowpath length and residence time. The portion of the study area strongly influenced by groundwater discharge increased in size throughout the storm, producing elevated Ca²⁺ and concentrations in the streambed, suggesting zones of localized groundwater inputs expand in response to storms. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strength and stiffness reduction factors for infilled frames with openings

Framed structures are usually infilled with masonry walls. They may cause a significant increase in both stiffness and strength, reducing the deformation demand and increasing the energy dissipation capacity of the system. On the other hand, irregular arrangements of the masonry panels may lead to the concentration of damage in some regions, with negative effects; for example soft story mechanisms and shear failures in short columns. Therefore, the presence of infill walls should not be neglected, especially in regions of moderate and high seismicity. To this aim, simple models are available for solid infills walls, such as the diagonal no-tension strut model, while infilled frames with openings have not been adequately investigated. In this study, the effect of openings on the strength and stiffness of infilled frames is investigated by means of about 150 experimental and numerical tests. The main parameters involved are identified and a simple model to take into account the openings in the infills is developed and compared with other models proposed by different researchers. The model, which is based on the use of strength and stiffness reduction factors, takes into account the opening dimensions and presence of reinforcing elements around the opening. An example of an application of the proposed reduction factors is also presented.     

Probabilistic seismic response assessment of linear systems equipped with nonlinear viscous dampers

The paper aims at evaluating the influence of damper properties on the probabilistic seismic response of structural systems equipped with nonlinear viscous dampers. For this purpose, a linear single‐degree‐of‐freedom system with an added linear or nonlinear viscous damper is considered, and the response statistics are evaluated for a set of natural records describing the ground motion uncertainty. A dimensional analysis of the seismic problem is carried out first to identify the minimum set of characteristic parameters describing the system and controlling the seismic response. An extensive parametric study is then performed to estimate the influence of the damper properties on the statistics of the main response quantities of interest (i.e. maximum displacements, accelerations and damper forces), for a wide range of values of the characteristic parameters. Finally, a set of case studies is investigated to show some interesting issues concerning the influence of the damper nonlinear behaviour on the evaluation of the system reliability and to highlight some limitations of current deterministic approaches neglecting the probabilistic properties of the response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.