Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D

Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be cost reductions resulting from R&D and report median cost reductions around 20 % for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the improvements associated to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. We conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.     

Workshop on dynamics,transport and chemistry of the UTLS Asian Monsoon

正1.Overview The upper troposphere-lower stratosphere(UTLS)of the Asian summer monsoon(ASM)region is characterized by a continental-scale anticyclonic circulation,which is dynamically active and coupled to monsoonal convection.The monsoon anticyclone exhibits anomalous chemical and aerosol characteristics,linked to the outflow of deep convection and the large-scale circulation,and strongly influences the global     

Temporal variability of sedimentation rates and mobile fauna inside and outside a gorgonian garden

Paramuricea clavata (Cnidaria, Octocorallia) is an important ecosystem engineer of coralligenous assemblages increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate changes. As climate warming is predicted to continue in the coming years it is important to hypothesize future scenarios. Here we tested the influence of gorgonian colonies on sedimentation rates and vagile fauna trends, comparing sediments collected by traps inside and outside a gorgonian garden, in a coralligenous community of the Western Ligurian Sea, at 32 m depth, over a period of 1 year. The results indicated that sea fans created a sort of homeostatic effect on the surrounding habitat. We found evidence that where gorgonian colonies were present, the monthly fluctuations of sediments rate were lower than outside a garden. Gorgonian colonies also influenced the distribution of the associated vagile fauna; these organisms were generally more abundant inside than outside the garden. The data collected in this work appear to confirm the role of P. clavata as an ecosystem engineer, affecting biomass and variability of the surrounding habitat at both spatial and temporal scales.     

The impact of stream-groundwater exchange on seasonal nitrate loads in an urban stream

Urbanization negatively impacts water quality in streams by reducing stream-groundwater interactions, which can reduce a stream's capacity to naturally attenuate nitrate. Meadowbrook Creek, a first order urban stream in Syracuse, New York, has an inverse urbanization gradient, with heavily urbanized headwaters that are disconnected from the floodplain and downstream reaches that have intact riparian floodplains and connection to riparian aquifers. This system allows assessment of how stream-groundwater interactions in urban streams impact the net sources and sinks of nitrate at the reach scale. We used continuous (15-min) streamflow measurements and weekly grab samples at three gauging stations positioned longitudinally along the creek to develop continuous nitrate load estimates at the inlet and outlet of two contrasting reaches. Nitrate load estimates were determined using a USGS linear regression model, RLOADEST, and differences between loads at the inlet and outlet of contrasting reaches were used to quantify nitrate sink and source behaviour year-round. We observed a nitrate load of 1.4 × 10⁴ kg NO₃⁻ per water year, on average, at the outlet of the urbanized reach while the nitrate load at the outlet of the downstream, connected reach was 1.0 × 10⁴ kg NO₃⁻ per water year, on average. We found the more heavily urbanized, hydrologically-disconnected reach was a net source of nitrate regardless of season. In contrast, stream-groundwater exchange caused the hydrologically connected reach to be both a source and sink for nitrate, depending on time of year. Both reaches alter nitrate source and sink behaviour at various spatiotemporal scales. Groundwater connection in the downstream, connected reach reduces annual nitrate loads and provides more opportunities for sources and sinks of nitrate year-round than the hydrologically disconnected stream reach. Mechanisms include groundwater discharge into the stream with variable nitrate concentrations, surface-water groundwater interactions that foster denitrification, and stream load loss to surrounding near-stream aquifers. This study emphasizes how loads are important in understanding how stream-groundwater interactions impact reach scale nitrate export in urban streams.     

Reconnaissance dating: A new radiocarbon method applied to assessing the temporal distribution of Southern Ocean deep-sea corals

We have developed a rapid ‘reconnaissance’ method of preparing graphite for ¹⁴C/¹²C analysis. Carbonate (～15 mg) is combusted using an elemental analyzer and the resulting CO₂ is converted to graphite using a sealed tube zinc reduction method. Over 85% (n=45 replicates on twenty-one individual corals) of reconnaissance ages measured on corals ranging in age from 500 to 33,000 radiocarbon years (Ryr) are within two standard deviations of ages generated using standard hydrolysis methods on the same corals, and all reconnaissance ages are within 300 Ryr of the standard hydrolysis ages. Replicate measurements on three individual aragonitic corals yielded ages of 1076±35 Ryr (standard deviation; n=5), 10,739±47 Ryr (n=8), and 40,146±3500 Ryr (n=9). No systematic biases were found using different cleaning methods or variable sample sizes. Analysis of ¹³C/¹²C was made concurrently with the ¹⁴C/¹²C measurement to correct for natural fractionation and for fractionation during sample processing and analysis. This technique provides a new, rapid method for making accurate, percent-level ¹⁴C/¹²C analyses that may be used to establish the rates and chronology of earth system processes where survey-type modes of age estimation are desirable. For example, applications may include creation of sediment core-top maps, preliminary age models for sediment cores, and growth rate studies of marine organisms such as corals or mollusks. We applied the reconnaissance method to more than 100 solitary deep-sea corals collected in the Drake Passage in the Southern Ocean to investigate their temporal and spatial distribution. The corals used in this study are part of a larger sample set, and the subset that was dated was chosen based on species as opposed to preservation state, so as to exclude obvious temporal biases. Similar to studies in other regions, the distribution of deep-sea corals is not constant through time across the Drake Passage. Most of the corals from the Burdwood Bank (continental shelf of Argentina) have ages ranging between 0 and 2500 calendar years, whereas most of the corals from the Sars Seamount in the Drake Passage have ages between 10,000 and 12,500 calendar years. Such differences may be caused in part by sampling biases, but may also be caused by changes in larval transport, nutrient supply, or other environmental pressures.