Thermal Variability in a Tidal River

In this paper, we discuss observations of temperature variability in the tidal portion of the San Joaquin River in California. The San Joaquin River makes up the southern portion of the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta, the eastern end of San Francisco Bay. Observations made in August 2004 and August 2005 show significant diurnal variations in temperature in response to surface heat exchange. However, to account for observed changes in heat content a sizeable downstream heat flux (approximately 100 W m⁻²) must be added to the surface heat flux. To account for this flux via Fickian dispersion, a flow-dependent dispersion coefficient varying from 500 to 4,000 m² s⁻¹ is needed. These values are much larger than would be predicted for a river of this size, suggesting that the complex topology of the Delta greatly enhances longitudinal dispersion. Building on these observations, we present a simple theory that explores how the subtidal temperature field varies in response to changes in flow rate, dispersion, and heat exchange.     

Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: An editorial essay

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3–5 m SLR. In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1–5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.     

Verification of a Synthesized Method for the Calculation of Low-Level Climatological Wind Fields Using a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model

Low-level climatological wind fields over the La Plata River region of South America are synthesized with a dry, hydrostatic mesoscale boundary-layer numerical model. The model is forced at the upper boundary with the 1200 UTC local radiosonde observations and at the lower boundary with a land-river differential heating function defined from the daily meteorological observations of the region. The climatological wind field is defined as the mean value of a series of individual daily forecasts, employing two methods. The simplified method considers a 192-member ensemble (16 wind directions and 12 wind-speed classes at the upper boundary). Each member has a probability of occurrence that is determined from the 1959–1984 observations; the daily method uses a total of 3,248 days with available data during the same period. In both methods each realization is a daily forecast from which the mean wind distributions at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 local standard time are calculated and compared to the observations of five meteorological stations in the region. The validation of the climatological wind fields for both methods is evaluated by means of the root-mean-square error of the wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed by wind sector. The results obtained with the two methods are similar, and the errors in wind speed are always smaller than those in wind direction. The combined errors of wind direction and wind speed show that the ensemble method is outperformed by the daily method, on average by meteorological station in only one out of five of them, and on average by the time of the day in only one out of 4 h. The conclusion of the study is that the ensemble method is an appropriate methodology for determining high resolution, low-level climatological wind fields, with the boundary-layer model applied to a region with a strong diurnal cycle of surface thermal contrast. The proposed methodology is of particular utility for synthesizing wind fields over regions with limited meteorological observations, since the 192-member matrix can be easily defined with few observing points, as well as in the case of relatively incomplete records.     

The Role of the Solar Cycle in the Relationship Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures

The North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. It has been shown that it clearly relates to changes in meteorological variables, such as surface temperature, at hemispherical scales. However, recent studies have revealed that the NAO spatial pattern also depends upon solar forcing. Therefore, its effects on meteorological variables must vary depending upon this factor. Moreover, it could be that the Sun affects climate through variability patterns, a hypothesis that is the focus of this study. We find that the relationship between the NAO/AO and hemispheric temperature varies depending upon solar activity. The results show a positive significant correlation only when solar activity is high. Also, the results support the idea that solar activity influences tropospheric climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere via the fluctuations of the stratospheric polar vortex .     

Mineralogical controls on environmental mobility of arsenic from historic mine processing residues,New Zealand

Processing of arsenopyrite ore took place at Blackwater Au mine, New Zealand, between 1908 and 1951 and no rehabilitation was undertaken after mine closure. High As concentrations in solid processing residues (up to 40 wt% As) are due to secondary As minerals. Site pH regimes vary from 4.1 to circum-neutral. Originally, all processed As was present as arsenolite (arsenic trioxide polymorph, As^III), a by-product of arsenopyrite roasting. Near the roaster, scorodite precipitated as a result of the high dissolved As concentration during arsenolite dissolution. The formation of scorodite has two major consequences. Firstly, the scorodite precipitate cements the ground in the vicinity of the roaster area, thereby creating an impermeable surface crust (up to 30 wt% As) and encapsulating weathered arsenolite grains within the cement. Secondly, formation of scorodite temporarily immobilizes some of the dissolved As that is generated during nearby arsenolite dissolution. Where all the available arsenolite has dissolved, scorodite becomes soluble, and the dissolved As concentrations are controlled by scorodite solubility, which is at least two orders of magnitudes lower than arsenolite solubility. Downstream Eh conditions fall below the As^V/As^III boundary, so that scorodite does not precipitate and dissolved As concentrations are controlled by arsenolite solubility. Dissolved As reaches up to 52 mg/L in places, and exceeds the current WHO drinking water guideline of 0.01 mg/L by 5200 times. This study shows that dissolved As concentrations in discharge waters at historic mine sites are dependent on the processing technology and associated mineralogy.     

A short-term forecast model for hail

Predicting the occurrence of hailstorms is one of the most complicated tasks in weather forecasting because of the small area of land that is usually affected, and because of the short time hail events last. Today there are a number of parameters available that may be used to characterize preconvective conditions and predict the beginning of convection. However, forecast models based on stability indices should be developed separately for each geographic area.The databases available were used in this study with two aims in mind: determining which meteorological variables or indices obtained from a radiosonde in the study zone are more relevant in characterizing preconvective conditions; and, secondly, setting up an objective short-term forecast model for storms on the basis of one or more meteorological parameters.The logistic regression was used to establish the dichotomy risk/no risk of storms. A function was developed combining seven meteorological variables. The results show that the forecast model has a Probability of Detection of 0.87 and a False Alarm Ratio of 0.18.     

An iron isotope signature related to electron transfer between aqueous ferrous iron and goethite

We measured the Fe isotope fractionation during the reactions of Fe(II) with goethite in the presence and absence of a strong Fe(III) chelator (desferrioxamine mesylate, DFAM). All experiments were completed in an O₂-free glove box. The concentrations of aqueous Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_aq]) decreased below the initial total dissolved Fe concentrations ([Fe(II)_total], 2.15 mM) due to fast adsorption within 0.2 day. The concentration of adsorbed Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_ads]) was determined as the difference between [Fe(II)_aq] and the concentration of extracted Fe(II) in 0.5 M HCl ([Fe(II)_extr]) (i.e., [Fe(II)_ads] = [Fe(II)_extr] − [Fe(II)_aq]). [Fe(II)_ads] also decreased with time in experiments with and without DFAM, documenting that fast adsorption was accompanied by a second, slower reaction. Interestingly, [Fe(II)_extr] was always smaller than [Fe(II)_total], indicating that some Fe(II) was sequestered into a pool that is not HCl-extractable. The difference was attributed to Fe(II) incorporated into goethite structure (i.e., [Fe(II)_inc] = [Fe(II)_total] −[Fe(II)_extr]). More Fe(II) was incorporated in the presence of DFAM than in its absence at all time steps. Regardless of the presence of DFAM, both aqueous and extracted Fe(II) (δ^56/54Fe(II)_aq and δ^56/54Fe(II)_extr) became isotopically lighter than or similar to goethite (− 0.27‰) at day 7, implying that the isotope exchange occurred between bulk goethite and aqueous Fe. Consistently, the mass balance indicated that the incorporated Fe is isotopically heavier than extracted Fe. These observations suggested that (i) co-adsorption of Fe(II) with DFAM resulted in more pervasive electron transfer, (ii) the electron transfer from heavy Fe(II) in the adsorbed Fe(II) to light Fe(III) in goethite results in the fixation of heavy adsorbed Fe(III) on the surface and accumulation of Fe(II) within the goethite, and (iii) desorption of the reduced, light Fe from goethite does not necessarily occur at the same surface sites where adsorption occurred.     

Impact of ancient metal smelting on arsenic pollution in the Pecora River Valley,Southern Tuscany,Italy

A significant As anomaly has been reported in the literature for stream sediments and unlithified Quaternary deposits of the Pecora River valley in Southern Tuscany, extending from the “Colline Metallifere” pyrite-base metals district to the Tyrrhenian Sea. The As anomaly spreads over several square kilometers around a core that exceeds 500 ppm. Several source contributions (from natural to anthropogenic) have been invoked to explain the observed As distribution in the Pecora Valley, including the metal-working industry which was active in this area, particularly in Etrusco-Roman times and in the Middle Ages. In order to evaluate the contribution of ancient mining and metallurgical activities in the Pecora Valley to elevated As concentrations in the environment, a detailed mineralogical and geochemical survey of metallurgical slags and smelted ore minerals was undertaken from six different sites through the Pecora Valley: Poggio Butelli (Etrusco-Roman iron slags); Sata Creek, Arialla, Marsiliana, Forra and Cascata sites (all Medieval base metals slags). The As content of Etrusco-Roman slags is relatively low (few tens of ppm), whereas Medieval slags show variable, but higher amounts of base metals (±Ag) (ranging from tens to tens of thousands ppm) and As (up to 267 ppm, with average contents of about 40 ppm). Arsenic is mostly partitioned in sulfides disseminated through the glassy groundmass rather than in solid solution with the glassy matrix. Remnants of the ore used for base metal and Ag smelting during the Middle Ages had the highest As contents (up to about 1000 ppm).     

Lake ice and temperature trends for Ontario and Manitoba: 2001 to 2014

Lakes are a prominent geographic feature in northern landscapes and play an important role in understanding regional climate systems. In order to better model changes within climate systems, it is important to study lake ice processes. Although the availability of records for lake ice through ground measurements has declined in recent years, the increased use of remote sensing provides an alternative to this. Using a preclassified snow and ice remote sensing product with a 500‐m resolution, based on images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS/MOD10A1), and the use of measured and reanalysis temperature data, this study evaluated lake ice phenology dates in connection to recent trends in temperature and 0 °C isotherms within Ontario and Manitoba between 2001 and 2014. Temperature trends indicated both regional warming and cooling, with significant cooling observed in Southern Ontario (p < .05) and significant warming in Southern Manitoba (p < .1) during the fall. Spatial analysis of the trends in the lake ice data showed significant clustering of significant trends in ice on dates (p < .01). When analysing the trends in ice phenology in connection to the trends in temperature, it was found that 70% of lakes experienced a change in the ice on date with the expected change in temperature and 85% of lakes for ice off date. When shifting ice on and ice off dates are investigated in relation to 0 °C isotherms, it was seen that 80% of ice on dates and 100% of ice off dates shifted in sync with the isotherm dates. This demonstrates that the ice phenology of lakes in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada, is responding to short‐term variability in temperature. The MODIS product could be used to investigate ice phenology on a large scale and contribute towards expanding existing records of ice phenology. Establishing long‐term ice records could be a valuable asset for other research ranging from water balance studies to the response of lake biota under changing climate.