Performance of irrigation projects and their impacts on poverty reduction and its empowerment in arid environment

Biophysical and socioeconomic conditions of pre and post dam construction were assessed in one of the arid regions of Iran commanded by Minab dam. The methodology used in this study was drawn from the international organizations especially the World Commission on Dams and the United Nations for selection of the indicators for sustainable development relating to water resources projects. Commissioning of the dam in 1986 led to progressive expansion of the irrigated agriculture, which was almost doubled in year 2006. Results of the study revealed that there is significant positive impact of the irrigation infrastructures of the dam; for example literacy rate has increased from 41 % (pre project) to 74 % in 2006. Similarly, significant improvements were observed in health care, sanitation, education and other scopes. Nevertheless, for some of the targets only 50–60 % progress were made, whereas no significant achievements had been made in the others. Therefore, development did not match with the planned goals of the project. Deficiency in achieving the primary objectives, especially after many years of project completion, may be attributed to the management and implementation of the project. For effective project performance, a new institutional framework and guide lines are proposed in this article.     

Composition of selected heavy metals in road dust from Kuala Lumpur city centre

This study was carried out in order to determine the concentration of heavy metals, e.g., lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni) and chromium (Cr) in road dust in Kuala Lumpur’s city centre. Samples were collected from four sampling locations, each of which had four sampling points and three replications. Heavy metals from different fractions of particles separated by different diameter sizes: d < 63 μm (Fraction A), 63 < d < 125 μm (Fraction B) and 125 < d < 250 μm (Fraction C) were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The results from this study showed that concentration of heavy metals was dominated by the smallest particle size: <63 μm and that Fe was the most abundant heavy metal overall, followed by Cu > Mn > Zn > Pb > Ni > Cr > Cd. The fact that Cd had the highest enrichment factor value (EF) for all particle sizes indicates that anthropogenic activities contributed to the presence of this metal. There was also a higher EF value for heavy metals in small particle (Fraction A), compared to Fraction B and C, which suggests that fine particles were being produced through anthropogenic activities. Cluster analysis and principal component analysis demonstrated the likelihood of the heavy metals detected in the road dust, originating from road traffic and industrial activities.     

A parametric Markov renewal model for predicting tropical cyclones in Bangladesh

In this paper, we consider a Markov renewal process (MRP) to model tropical cyclones occurred in Bangladesh during 1877–2009. The model takes into account both the occurrence history and some physical constraints to capture the main physical characteristics of the storm surge process. We assume that the sequence of cyclones constitutes a Markov chain, and sojourn times follow a Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull MRP jointly with transition probabilities are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The model shows a good fit with the real events, and probabilities of occurrence of different types of cyclones are calculated for various lengths of time interval using the model. Stationary probabilities and mean recurrence times are also calculated. A brief comparison with a Poisson model and a marked Poisson model has also been demonstrated.     

Walker circulation controls ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in uncoupled and coupled climate model simulations

Many climate models strongly underestimate the two most important atmospheric feedbacks operating in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the positive (amplifying) zonal surface wind feedback and negative (damping) surface-heat flux feedback (hereafter ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, EAF). This hampers a realistic representation of ENSO dynamics in these models. Here we show that the atmospheric components of climate models participating in the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) when forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST), already underestimate EAF on average by 23%, but less than their coupled counterparts (on average by 54%). There is a pronounced tendency of atmosphere models to simulate stronger EAF, when they exhibit a stronger mean deep convection and enhanced cloud cover over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), indicative of a stronger rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Further, differences in the mean deep convection over the WEP between the coupled and uncoupled models explain a large part of the differences in EAF, with the deep convection in the coupled models strongly depending on the equatorial Pacific SST bias. Experiments with a single atmosphere model support the relation between the equatorial Pacific atmospheric mean state, the SST bias and the EAF. An implemented cold SST bias in the observed SST forcing weakens deep convection and reduces cloud cover in the rising branch of the PWC, causing weaker EAF. A warm SST bias has the opposite effect. Our results elucidate how biases in the mean state of the PWC and equatorial SST hamper a realistic simulation of the EAF.     

PPMXL photometric analysis of three open cluster candidates

We present here the astrophysical parameters of three stellar open cluster candidates using PPMXL (<http://vizer.cfa.harvard.edu/viz-bin/VizieR?-source=I/317>) database. In this study, the main photometric, astrometry and statistical parameters of Ruprecht 13, Ruprecht 16 and Ruprecht 24 are estimated for the first time.     

The role of ocean dynamics in producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific

 Decadal time scale climate variability in the North Pacific has implications for climate both locally and over North America. A crucial question is the degree to which this variability arises from coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions over the North Pacific that involve ocean dynamics, as opposed to either purely thermodynamic effects of the oceanic mixed layer integrating in situ the stochastic atmospheric forcing, or the teleconnected response to tropical variability. The part of the variability that is coming from local coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions involving ocean dynamics is potentially predictable by an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model (O/A GCM), and such predictions could (depending on the achievable lead time) have distinct societal benefits. This question is examined using the results of fully coupled O/A GCMs, as well as targeted numerical experiments with stand-alone ocean and atmosphere models individually. It is found that coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions that involve ocean dynamics are important to determining the strength and frequency of a decadal-time scale peak in the spectra of several oceanic variables in the Kuroshio extension region off Japan. Local stochastic atmospheric heat flux forcing, integrated by the oceanic mixed layer into a red spectrum, provides a noise background from which the signal must be extracted. Although teleconnected ENSO responses influence the North Pacific in the 2–7 years/cycle frequency band, it is shown that some decadal-time scale processes in the North Pacific proceed without ENSO. Likewise, although the effects of stochastic atmospheric forcing on ocean dynamics are discernible, a feedback path from the ocean to the atmosphere is suggested by the results. Received: 23 January 2000 / Accepted: 10 January 2001     

A synthesis of the Levantine Basin circulation and hydrography, 1985–1990

The Levantine Basin circulation derived from recent data consists of a series of sub-basin-scale to mesoscale eddies interconnected by jets. The basin-scale circulation is masked by eddy variability that modulates and modifies it on seasonal and interannual time scales. Long-term qualitative changes in the circulation are reflected in the bifurcation pattterns of ther mid-basin jets, relative strengths of eddies and the hydrographic properties at the core of these eddies. Confinement within the Basin geometry strongly influences the co-evolution of the circulation features.Surface measurements, satellite images and the mass field indicate an entire range of scales of dynamical features in the region. The complexity of the circulation is consistent with the basin-wide and mesoscale heterogeneity of the hydrographic properties. The interannual variability of LIW (Levantine Intermediate Water) formation in the region appears correlated with the changes in the circulation. Wintertime convective overturning of water masses reach intermediate depths and constitute a dominant mechanism of LIW formation, especially in anticyclonic eddies and along the coasts of the northern Levantine Basin.