Coupling of remote sensing data and environmental-related parameters for dengue transmission risk assessment in Subang Jaya,Malaysia

In Malaysia, the endemic level of dengue fever (DF) has already changed morbidity indicators, and the magnitude of these incidences in the last few years has surpassed the incidences of all other diseases of compulsory notification. The reasons for the dramatic emergence of DF are complex and not well understood. There are many factors that contribute to the epidemiological conditions that favour viral transmission by the main mosquito vector. This study, therefore, is filling this gap by analysing the impact of dengue incidence at a local (Subang Jaya) scale using environmental factors. Meteorological data and land-use pattern were consolidated using geographic information system (GIS) and its components as an analytical tool. We have shown that weather variables (relative humidity, temperature and precipitation) have significant correlation with DF incidence with seasonal variation. Besides land-use pattern, DF incidence shows the higher distribution in the residential area, followed by commercial and industrial area. This is due to the higher population density in residential area as well as favourable places for the breeding of dengue-carrying Aedes mosquitos created by humans in the residential area, especially one-storey houses. The analysis on the trends of DF incidence towards various housing types indicate that most of the victims’ houses fall into interconnection houses and mixed houses types compared to the independent houses area. The outcome driven from this analysis suggested that each character of the environmental factors has their own risk towards dengue incidence. In line with that, it is possible to develop a dynamic model of DF transmission using the knowledge produced by this comprehensive time series data and the results provided by the different analyses.     

GLONASS ambiguity resolution of mixed receiver types without external calibration

GLONASS processing from mixed receiver types is typically subject to unmodeled inter-frequency phase biases which prevent carrier phase ambiguity parameters from converging to integers. Receiver-dependent values have been proposed to mitigate the contribution of these biases, but are still subject to a number of issues, such as firmware updates. Recent studies have demonstrated that the origin of inter-frequency biases is a misalignment between phase and code observations, and could be calibrated to first order by manufacturers. In this contribution, a calibration-free method for GLONASS ambiguity resolution is presented in which ambiguities naturally converge to integers. A mandatory condition is that two GLONASS satellites with adjacent frequency numbers are observed simultaneously, although this condition can be relaxed once a fixed solution has been obtained. This approach then permits the integration of different receiver types and firmware versions into seamless processing.     

Multiple linear regression,multi-layer perceptron network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for forecasting precipitation based on large-scale climate signals

ABSTRACT

Nowadays, mathematical models are widely used to predict climate processes, but little has been done to compare the models. In this study, multiple linear regression (MLR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were compared for precipitation forecasting. The large-scale climate signals were considered as inputs to the applied models. After selecting the most effective climate indices, the effects of large-scale climate signals on the seasonal standardized precipitation index (SPI) of the Maharlu-Bakhtaran catchment, Iran, simultaneously and with a delay, was analysed using a cross-correlation function. Hence, the SPI time series was forecasted up to four time intervals using MLR, MLP and ANFIS. The results showed that most of the indices were significant with SPI of different lag times. Comparison of the SPI forecast results by MLR, MLP and ANFIS models showed better performance for the MLP network than the other two models (RMSE = 0.86, MAE = 0.74 for the first step ahead of SPI forecasting).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F. Pappenberger     

A model for pushover analysis of confined masonry structures: implementation and validation

Confined masonry (CM) is a typical building technique in Latin American countries. This technique, due to its simplicity of construction and similarity with traditional practices of reinforced concrete building, presents a potential of use in European regions with moderate-to-high seismicity. However, most of the procedures for seismic design in codes for Latin America are force-based, which appears to be inadequate due to the high dissipative response observed for CM. This paper presents a simplified numerical-analytical approach to model CM structures using pushover analysis, aiming to apply performance-based design procedures. First, a data mining process is performed on a database of experimental results collected from lateral tests on CM walls to adjust prediction models for the wall shear strength and to determine the input relevance through a sensitivity analysis. Then, an analytical model of CM structures for pushover analysis is proposed with basis on a wide-column approach that employs an adaptive shear load-displacement constitutive relation. The proposed method is compared with a discrete element model that represents explicitly the confinements-masonry interaction, against the experimental results obtained in a quasi-static test of a full-scale tridimensional CM structure. The accuracy of the predictions from both methods is very satisfactory, allowing to capture the base shear-displacement envelope and also the damage patterns of the structure, thus, demonstrating the ability of the methods to be used in performance-based seismic assessment and design of CM buildings.     

A~200 ka pollen record from Okinawa Trough:Paleoenvironment reconstruction of glacial-interglacial cycles

Pollen analysis was carried out on the Core MD982194 of 29.78 m retrieved from the Middle Okinawa Trough which was dated as old as~200 ka BP.The results revealed that pollen assemblages mainly presented an alternation of coniferous and herb pollen.The coniferous saccate pollen,principally Pinus and Tsuga,predominated in most parts of the core,especially highlighted in the interstadial stages including MIS 1,3,5 and MIS7,whereas the herb pollen significantly increased in the glacial periods.Thus the pollen flora and their percentages showed the sensitive changes under the influence of ice volume during the glacial and interglacial periods.Our record from this core has first documented that the percentage of Cyperaceae was extremely high in the glacial stages with a notable increase in Artemisia,Gramineae,Asteraceae,Chenopodiaceae,and freshwater algae,which can be used as a proxy for sea-level change at the study site because of their close negative correlation of the orbital-scale changes in sea level.The distance between the continental coastline and the Okinawa Trough has deeply shortened due to the sea-level drop in the LGM.As a result,the sediment materials from Yangtze River were extensively deposited on the flat,exposed continental shelf owing to the rapid decline of river flow speed,leading to that pollen grains from Okinawa Trough are derived mainly from the flat coastal vegetation of exposed continental shelf at glacial stages.Changes of pollen assemblage were consistent with the variation of temperature and humidity,which showed that the percentage of arboreal pollen was highly augmented at MIS 7,5 and MIS 1,corresponding to the strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon and increasing of rainfall.Moreover,the peak of Pinus percentage in MIS 5.3,5.1 and MIS 3.3 may be closely linked by orbital and sub-orbital cycles of solar radiation and monsoonal variability.The present study of core MD981294 implied lower temperature and precipitation during the lowest sea-level stage(LGM),and more visibly testified that the vegetation of the flat plain on the exposed continental shelf was dominated by intrazonal communities such as halophyte grasslands and freshwater wetlands instead of zonal steppe or semi-arid desert.All above evidence demonstrated that the fundamental changes of pollen assemblage and their origins in Okinawa Trough since~200 ka BP were affected by combine factors including the coastline position and climate fluctuation.Moreover,the substantial shortening of distance between shoreline and the Okinawa Trough driven by orbital insolation cycles was clearly indicated by the pollen spectra,whereas the source-area climate signal of the pollen record was largely weakened.     

Removal of Hydrogen Sulfide by Physico‐Biological Filter Using Mixed Rice Husk Silica and Dried Activated Sludge

This study investigated the effectiveness of a new packing material, namely mixed rice husk silica with dried activated sludge for removing H₂S. Dried sewage sludge was collected from Putrajaya sewage treatment plant in Malaysia. Rice husk silica was prepared at temperature of 800°C, after acid leaching and mixed with dried sewage sludge to be utilized in a polyvinyl chloride filter. The system was operated under variable conditions of two parameters, different inlet gas concentration and different inlet flow rate. H₂S was passed through the filter with one liter of the packing material. More than 99.96% removal efficiency (RE) with empty bed residence time (EBRT) of 90–45 s and 300 ppm inlet concentration was observed. However, the RE decreased to 96.87% with the EBRT of 30 s. The maximum elimination capacity (EC) of 52.32 g/m³/h was obtained with the RE of 96.87% and H₂S mass loading rate of 54 g/m³/h, while at the RE of 99.96%, maximum EC was 26.99 g/m³/h with the H₂S mass‐loading rate of 27 g/m³/h. A strong significant correlation between increasing of H₂S mass loading rate and pressure drop was also detected (p < 0.01). Maximum pressure drop was 3.0 mm H₂O after 53 days of operating time, the EBRT of 30 s, and 54 g/m³/h of H₂S loading rate. These observations suggest that the mixture of rice husk silica with dried activated sludge is a suitable physico‐biological filter for H₂S removal.     

Trends of summer daily maximum temperature extremes in Turkey

This work seeks to understand the variability of warm and cool events during summer in Turkey. Daily maximum air temperature data from 97 weather stations were analyzed to determine percentile threshold values (99th, 95th, 90th, 1st, 5th, and 10th) at each station. Trends in the percentile values were determined using the Mann–Kendall trend test. The analysis demonstrates an increase in frequency of warm, hot, and extremely hot days, whereas cool, cold, and extremely cold days show a decreasing trend. Increasing trends are statistically significant at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels for 13 and 46% of the stations, respectively. Significant decreasing trends have been detected at 0.05 and 0.01 levels for 19 and 15% of 97 stations, respectively. Analysis of the observations shows that the number of warm and hot event started to increase in the 1970s. Warm events are comparatively more numerous than cold events in western and southern parts of the country.     

Urbanization of the United States over two centuries: an approach based on a long-term database (1790–2010)

This paper presents an original methodology for the construction of a harmonized database for urban areas in the United States from 1790 to 2010 (a period with a census every 10 years, amounting to 23 dates). Upstream, this method is based on a theoretical choice, the use of a spatio-temporal reference frame to construct urban areas over the long term, defined by a maximum range of one hour’s travel for each period. We used an automatic aggregation from a Reilly model. Urban measures (growth, concentration) derived from this harmonized database are then presented, providing a unified picture of urbanization in the United States over more than two centuries. They are compared with results derived from more classical databases established using the official figures from the Census Bureau, or from other constructions differing from the present system. The results diverge considerably in some instances, which confirms the impact of the method of delineation of geographical areas in measures of growth.     

Determination of sedimentary cover and structural trends in the Central Sinai area using gravity and magnetic data analysis

The present study is an attempt to determine the sedimentary cover, and structural trends in the central part of Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. This study has been implemented by the integration of gravity and magnetic methods. Gravity data has been used for 2D modelling along some profiles perpendicular to the main structural trends of the study area. Magnetic data will be analyzed to determine the depth to the basement surface. The depths obtained from magnetic data will be used as a control points in the gravity modelling in order to minimize the error and facilitate the iteration of the suggested models. The basement relief map from magnetic and gravity output has been produced. This map indicates that, the basement depths, generally, increases from south to north and from east to west direction of the study area. The sedimentary cover is about 1.5-2 km in the southern part and increases to more than 4 km in the northeastern and western parts and changes gradually in the other parts of the study area. Results of structural trend analysis indicate that, the study area is greatly affected by several structural trends; N-S, E-W, NW-SE, and NNE-SSW directions. These trends are associated with the Baltim fault trend, Tethyan trend, Gulf of Suez, and Aqaba trend, respectively.     

Curie point depth beneath the Barramiya-Red Sea coast area estimated from spectral analysis of aeromagnetic data

The geothermal regime beneath the Barramiya-Red Sea coast area of the Central Eastern Desert of Egypt has been determined by using the Curie point depth, which is temperature dependent. This study is based on the analysis of aeromagnetic data. The depth to the tops and centroid of the magnetic anomalies are calculated by power spectrum method for the whole area. The result of this investigation indicates, two new maps of the Curie point depth (CPD) and the surface heat flow (q) maps of the study area. The coastal regions are characterized by high heat flow (83.6 mW/m²), due to the geothermic nature of the region, and shallow Curie depth (22.5 km), where (CPD) depends on the tectonic regime and morphology in the eastern part of the area. The western portion of the studied area has a lower heat flow (<50 mW/m²) and deeper Curie depth (∼40 km), due to the existence of a large areal extent of negative Bouguer anomaly in the NE-SW direction. In addition to its bordering to the Red Sea margin, such high heat flow anomaly is associated with the increased earthquake swarms activity in the Abu Dabbab area.