Models to predict Secchi depth in small glacial lakes

This study quantifies and ranks variables of significance to predict mean values of Secchi depth in small glacial lakes. The work is based on a new, extensive set of data from 88 Swedish lakes and their catchments. Several empirical models based on catchment and lake morphometric parameters are presented. These empirical models can only be used to predict Secchi depth for lakes of the same type, and the models based on geological map parameters can evidently not be used for time-dependent and site typical predictions of Secchi depth. However, many of the principles behind the results ought to be valid for lakes in general. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating the variability in mean Secchi depth among lakes are formulated and tested. The most important variables are: Lake colour (expressing allogenic input of different types of humic materials), total-P and lake temperature (measures of production of autogenic materials). The most important map parameters are: The mean depth (linked to resuspension and lake morphometry) and the ratio between the drainage area and lake area (expressing the linkage between catchment and lake). The predictability of some of the models cannot be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area (using the drainage area zonation technique). The variability in mean Secchi depth from other factors, such as precipitation and anthropogenic load, may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these geological factors, which can statistically explain 68% of the variability in Secchi depth among these lakes. The model based on map parameters can also be used to estimate natural, preindustrial reference values of Secchi depth.     

Radiation pressure correction to meteor orbits

We present a method to calculate the radiation pressure force to gravity ratio on meteoroids from their atmospheric flight. Radiation pressure corrections to meteor orbits are negligible for fireballs; of the order of or less than the measurement errors ( 1%) for photographic meteors; of the order of and in some cases substantially larger than the measurement errors ( 10%) for radar meteors.     

Well Conditioning in Object Models

This paper presents two object models with corresponding simulation algorithms, which aim to condition well data correctly while still converging in reasonable time. The first model is devoted to fluvial channels and the second one is mainly intended for smaller objects. To verify the conditioning, a method for validating well conditioning algorithms for object models is given. The purpose is to determine the extent to which the well conditioning introduces a bias in the models. To do this, we check that the double expectation of a parameter conditioned to wells is equal to the unconditional expectation. This method is applied to two different object models. Both the conditioning algorithms presented here give good results using this test.     

The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area Part I: model validation

We assess the performance of an eddy-recognizing numerical ocean model in simulating the pattern and variability of the hydrography in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. The model we use is a version of the widely used Princeton ocean model employing a terrain-following vertical coordinate. Results from a series of five multi-year simulations of the mesoscale response are described. The simulations differ in their representation of the lateral freshwater supply to the model ocean of which the first is a reference simulation. The next four are variations in which the river discharges and/or the Baltic outflow are given more realistic representations. For validation, we have used in situ hydrographic data. A novelty is that we use the concepts of freshwater height and potential energy anomaly as objective validation tools. We find that, in general, the model faithfully reproduces many of the observed hydrographic features including their mean patterns and their variance. Not surprisingly, we find that the Baltic outflow is by far the most significant freshwater source in terms of its influence on the hydrography in the area, a result corroborating earlier findings. The best validation is obtained when all freshwater supply is made as realistic as possible, in particular the Baltic outflow. We also find that the large scale cyclonic circulation and the location of fronts are robust characteristics of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea circulation given the impact changes in the freshwater input has on the hydrography. Finally, we find that a further exploration of the impact of the lateral open boundary forcing, e.g., the input of Atlantic water, is needed.     

Geological constraints of pore pressure detection in shales from seismic data

Methods for detection of pore fluid overpressures in shales from seismic data have become widespread in the oil industry. Such methods are largely based on the identification of anomalous seismic velocities, and on subsequent determination of pore pressures through relationships between seismic velocities and the vertical effective stress (VES). Although it is well known that lithology variations and compaction mechanisms should be accounted for in pore pressure evaluation, a systematic approach to evaluation of these factors in seismic pore pressure prediction seems to be absent. We have investigated the influence of lithology variations and compaction mechanism on shale velocities from acoustic logs. This was performed by analyses of 80 wells from the northern North Sea and 24 wells from the Haltenbanken area. The analyses involved identification of large‐scale density and velocity variations that were unrelated to overpressure variations, which served as a basis for the analyses of the resolution of overpressure variations from well log data. The analyses demonstrated that the overpressures in neither area were associated with compaction disequilibrium. A significant correlation between acoustic velocity and fluid overpressure nevertheless exists in the Haltenbanken data, whereas the correlation between these two parameters is weak to non‐existing in the North Sea shales. We do not presently know why acoustic velocities in the two areas respond differently to fluid overpressuring. Smectitic rocks often have low permeabilities, and define the top of overpressures in the northern North Sea when they are buried below 2 km. As smectitic rocks are characterized by low densities and low acoustic velocities, their presence may be identified from seismic data. Smectite identification from seismic data may thus serve as an indirect overpressure indicator in some areas. Our investigations demonstrate the importance of including geological work and process understanding in pore pressure evaluation work. As a response to the lack of documented practice within this area, we suggest a workflow for geological analyses that should be performed and integrated with seismic pore pressure prediction.     

Mesozoic–Cenozoic exhumation events in the eastern North Sea Basin: a multi-disciplinary study based on palaeothermal, palaeoburial, stratigraphic and seismic data

Four Mesozoic–Cenozoic palaeothermal episodes related to deeper burial and subsequent exhumation and one reflecting climate change during the Eocene have been identified in a study of new apatite fission‐track analysis (AFTA^®) and vitrinite reflectance data in eight Danish wells. The study combined thermal‐history reconstruction with exhumation studies based on palaeoburial data (sonic velocities) and stratigraphic and seismic data. Mid‐Jurassic exhumation (ca. 175 Ma) was caused by regional doming of the North Sea area, broadly contemporaneous with deep exhumation in Scandinavia. A palaeogeothermal gradient of 45 °C km^?1 at that time may be related to a mantle plume rising before rifting in the North Sea. Mid‐Cretaceous exhumation affecting the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone is probably related to late Albian tectonic movements (ca. 100 Ma). The Sole Pit axis in the southern North Sea experienced similar inversion and this suggests a plate‐scale response along crustal weakness zones across NW Europe. Mid‐Cenozoic exhumation affected the eastern North Sea Basin and the onset of this event correlates with a latest Oligocene unconformity (ca. 24 Ma), which indicates a major Scandinavian uplift phase. The deeper burial that caused the late Oligocene thermal event recognized in the AFTA data reflect progradation of lower Oligocene wedges derived from the uplifting Scandinavian landmass. The onset of Scandinavian uplift is represented by an earliest Oligocene unconformity (ca. 33 Ma). Late Neogene exhumation affected the eastern (and western) North Sea Basin including Scandinavia. The sedimentation pattern in the central North Sea Basin shows that this phase began in the early Pliocene (ca. 4 Ma), in good agreement with the AFTA data. These three phases of Cenozoic uplift of Scandinavia also affected the NE Atlantic margin, whereas an intra‐Miocene unconformity (ca. 15 Ma) on the NE Atlantic margin reflects tectonic movements of only minor amplitude in that area. The study demonstrates that only by considering episodic exhumation as an inherent aspect of the sedimentary record can the tectonic evolution be accurately reconstructed.     

Comparison of large-area land cover products with national forest inventories and CORINE land cover in the European Alps

Considerable efforts have recently resulted in the development of global land cover data at large spatial scales. The main objective of this study is a comparison of different AVHRR- and MODIS-based forest and land cover products at the scale of the European Alps: a large natural ecosystem that is exposed to both natural environmental threats and human impacts and exploitation. In a first test, the accuracy of land cover products in predicting the overall amount of forest across national boundaries was assessed using national forest inventory statistics. Both variants of forest class combinations resulted in a general overestimation of the forest area. The IGBP 2.0 cover performed best with an overall mean absolute error of 13% and a bias of 0%. In a second test, large-area land cover products were tested for accuracy in predicting 13 aggregated land cover types in a spatially explicit manner using CORINE land cover as reference dataset. Due to data inconsistencies, partly insufficient spatial resolution, steep terrain and land use heterogeneity of the European Alps, only partly satisfactory results were obtained.     

High-resolution peat records for Holocene monsoon history in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Holocene peat sediment has been attached impor-tance to reconstruct the Holocene climatic variations because it can provide much palaeoclimatic informa-tion with high resolution. Analysis on the plant mac-rofossil[1], pollen[2―4], isotope ratio[5―9], element con-tent[10,11], total organic carbon (TOC)[12], humifica-tion[13,14] and grayscale[12] for peat sediment has shown its superiorities as a recorder medium for reconstruct-ing the Holocene climate. Hong et al. have done great fruitful w…