Research for length change of four seasons over China in recent 47 years

Using daily temperature data from 599 Chinese weather stations during 1961–2007, the length change trends of four seasons during the past 47 years were analyzed. Results show that throughout the region, four seasons’ lengths are: spring becomes shorter (-0.8 d/10yrs), summer becomes longer (3.2 d/10yrs), autumn (-0.5 d/10yrs) and winter (-1.6 d/10yrs) becomes shorter. This trend is different in spatial distribution, namely it is very obvious in northern than southern China, and also remarkable in eastern than western China. Summer change is most obvious, but autumn has little change comparatively. This trend is highly obvious in North, East, Central and South China. In the Southwest starting in the 21st century, summer becomes longer and winter shortens. The trend in the Plateau region since the 1980s is that spring becomes longer and winter shortens. The average annual temperature increased during the past 47 years, and the change of the average annual temperature precedes seasons’ length. Thus, the average annual temperature has a certain influence on the length change of seasons.     

长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估

基于长江流域142个气象站1986—2005年月降水和气温数据,评估由MPI-ESM-LR模式驱动的CCLM区域气候模式对长江流域气温和降水的模拟能力,并采用EDCDF法对气温和降水预估数据进行偏差校正。结果表明：该区域气候模式能较好地模拟出长江流域平均气温的季节变化和空间分布特征,但模拟值无论在季节还是年际尺度上均高于观测值。对降水而言,该模式不能较好地模拟出降水的季节分布特征,导致春季、冬季及年模拟值高于观测值,而夏季和秋季模拟值低于观测值。总体而言,该模式对气温的模拟效果相对较好。偏差校正后的预估结果表明：在RCP4.5情景下,长江流域未来（2016—2035年）平均气温相对于基准期（1986—2005年）将升高0.66℃,年降水量将减少2.2%。     

Prevalence and diversity of norovirus genogroups I and II in Hong Kong marine waters and detection by real-time PCR

Marine waters from six sites around Hong Kong with varying levels of sewage pollution were examined for noroviruses (NoVs) by PCR cloning and sequencing of a highly-variable N-terminal region of the VP1 capsid gene, at the ORF1-ORF2 junction of NoV. Phylogenetic analysis of genogroups GI- and GII-specific PCR clones obtained from different marine sites indicated that human NoV GI.1 and GII.4 strains are the most prevalent genotypes circulating in Hong Kong waters. GI- and GII-specific TaqMan-based real-time PCR assays targeting the ORF1-ORF2 junction of NoVs were used to quantify NoV particles in marine water samples in parallel with total Escherichia coli counts which were enumerated on TBX medium. No correlation of any significance between NoV and E. coli counts was observed which highlighted the inadequacy in using E. coli as a fecal indicator to predict the level of NoVs in marine waters to protect public health.     

地震安全示范社区建设标准研究

根据中国地震局的统一部署,近几年多个省份开展了地震安全示范社区建设,从加强抗震设防到应急预案编制、志愿者队伍建设、宣传教育等各个方面都不同程度地开展了工作。但现有的地震安全示范社区建设还没有统一建设和评价标准,建设水平也有较大的差距,对于推进这一工作的开展十分不利。本文通过系统的资料收集和调研,结合在大连市开展的具体实践,对地震安全示范社区建设与研究现状进行了分析,综合各省市实践经验和行业管理办法,参考安全社区建设方面的标准和管理规定,给出了地震安全社区的定义、建设标准应包含的要素及主要内容,讨论了应用前景和可能存在的问题,为今后全国范围内进一步开展此项工作提供了依据,也为制定行业标准奠定了基础。     

FHD-2B型质子磁力仪数据采集故障原因分析

FHD-2B型质子磁力仪是按照中国地震局"十五"规程研制的地震前兆观测仪器,它通过IP接口接入前兆服务器,完成数据自动采集.通过分析该仪器在数据采集过程中出现空值的问题,总结从仪器回传数据的方法,并提出远程控制解决方案.     

四川省西溪河地洛水电工程区“7.31”泥石流灾害

2009-07-31,四川省凉山彝族自治州西溪河流域金阳县地洛电站施工区暴发泥石流,造成9人死亡、施工道路及设施损毁.通过现场调查和分析认为,"7.31"泥石流是一场高容重低粘度坡面型泥石质泥石流,强降雨是此次泥石流形成的激发条件,工程弃渣是其形成的物质基础和条件,过沟公路未合理设置排水涵洞,路基被毁,沿途大量物质补给是泥石流形成的促进因素."7.31"泥石流隐蔽性强,人们对其危害范围认识不足,防灾意识薄弱,监测预警不到位,是造成人员伤亡与财产损失的重要因素.结合西溪河流域水电开发的现状,针对性地提出了规范人类工程活动,提高防灾意识,加强地质灾害的监测预警等防治对策,建议进一步加强中小水电工程施工的监管力度,切实落实灾害危险性评估与防灾措施,最大限度地减少人为地质灾害.     

政和-海丰断裂带b值空间扫描分析

应用b值空间扫描方法,分析福建地区政和-海丰断裂带上发生的ML≥4.5中强地震前b值空间扫描图像.分析结果表明:在此断裂带上发生中强地震前,均存在b值空间扫描异常现象,且震中皆在异常区域内.b值空间扫描方法,对政和-海丰断裂带ML≥4.5中强地震发生的时间、地点映震效果明显,对该断裂带上发生的中强地震进行中短期预测有一定效果.     

Timing for high lake levels of Qinghai Lake in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since the Last Interglaciation based on quartz OSL dating

Qinghai Lake is situated in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Its size and proximity to the junction of three major climate systems make it sensitive to climate changes. Some investigations on shorelines of Qinghai Lake suggested highstands during MIS 3, but to what extent the lake level was higher than today is yet undetermined. Others proposed that the maximum highstands probably dated to MIS 5. It has also been shown that the lake level 120 m higher than today occurred at around 12 ka. Most of these previous ages were obtained using ¹⁴C dating or multiple-aliquot IRSL/OSL dating. For ¹⁴C dating, because of the dating limit (<40 ka) and the lack of suitable dating materials in this arid area, it is difficult to establish reliable chronological control. In the present study, seven samples collected from lacustrine deposits (five samples) and sand wedges (two samples) were dated using quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) with the single aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol. OSL dating results showed that (1) the lake had experienced two high lake levels, one was in MIS 5 and another in early to middle MIS 3; (2) no evidence of high lake levels in MIS 4 has been found; (3) the alluvial gravels, whose surface is at an elevation of ～3246 m, were formed at least 28.8 ± 2.3 ka ago, and the widespread sand wedges within the alluvial gravels were formed during the period of 15.1–28.8 ka, which implied that the lake level had not reached an elevation of ～3240 m after 28.8 ± 2.3 ka.