IOD Modoki事件对华南后汛期降水异常的影响及可能机理

利用1979—2019年CN05.1中国区域高分辨率降水格点数据、英国Hadley中心观测海温数据、ERA5逐月大气再分析资料及大气环流模式,研究了华南后汛期期间(7—9月)IOD Modoki事件与华南后汛期降水异常的关系及可能机理。观测资料结果表明,华南后汛期降水异常与热带印度洋中部(东和西部)海温异常呈显著正(负)相关关系,表现为印度洋IOD Modoki或印度洋三极子事件的空间分布型。滤除ENSO信号影响后,华南后汛期降水异常仍和IOD Modoki存在较为密切的联系。IOD Modoki正异常对华南后汛期降水异常的影响有以下途径,一方面,异常水汽从热带印度洋东部向西输送至热带中印度洋后,在北半球受科氏力作用向东输送至华南地区,为华南地区提供了充足的水汽条件,并且对华南地区降水正异常的主要水汽辐合贡献为平均水汽的水平扰动散度项和扰动引起的平均水汽垂直平流项。另一方面,热带东南印度洋海温负异常,通过Mastuno-Gill响应引起对流层低层自热带东南印度洋至热带中印度洋有东南风异常,增强了70°E附近的越赤道气流,在北半球向东输送至西北太平洋,这引起了华南地区对流层低层气旋式环流异常。另外,热带东印度洋对流层低(高)层异常辐散(辐合),华南地区低(高)层异常辐合(辐散)增强了东亚地区的局地Hadley环流,有利于华南地区降水的产生。再者,IOD Modoki引起南亚季风区受异常下沉运动控制,并通过季风-荒漠机制引起副热带北大西洋东部、北非荒漠区及地中海西部周围正涡度异常,激发了沿急流向下游传播的准静止Rossby波,增强了日本海高压异常和华南及邻近地区对流层低层气旋式环流异常。上述原因均有利于华南地区降水的产生,反之亦然。上述结果在数值模式中亦得到了验证。     

中国夏季云和降水的定量关系及其成因分析

云的形成是产生降雨的必要条件,云和降水之间存在着极为密切而复杂的联系。利用常规站点数据和ISCCP卫星数据等资料分析了夏季中国地区云的多种特征参数的变化与降水变化在时空分布上的联系。站点数据结果表明总云量、低云量与降水的距平在全国范围内表现出显著的正相关关系;在通过0.05水平显著性检验的站点上,云量和降水距平百分率之间的线性关系较明显,总云量每增加1.00%降水增加2.23%,低云量每增加1.00%降水增加0.46%。ISCCP数据结果显示总云云量、光学厚度和云水路径以及高云中的卷层云和深对流云云量与降水距平呈非常好的正相关关系。采用K-means聚类分析方法并参考中国地理气候分布特点,将中国分为9个气候区,以小波相干分析和交叉小波分析对各个气候区夏季云量和降水距平百分率序列在时频域内多尺度特征的关系做了进一步研究。结果显示9个气候区夏季白天总云量和低云量与降水变化在2~4年(a)和5~8a的尺度周期都具有较强的相干性与共振周期,且处于正相关位相。在时空分布和时频域上,中国地区夏季云和降水的变化之间都存在非常显著的正相关关系,尤其是低云量。云和降水变化之间具有强相干性与共振周期是两者之间正相关联系的原因。     

三杯风速传感器非水平风场测量性能

为解决三杯风速传感器在计量检定条件下与观测场景中环境差异所导致的测量数据误差,致力于研究空气流速计量标准在量值传递过程中的真实性、准确性和一致性,为新一代三杯风速传感器作为计量器具的新产品型式评价提供思路和参考指标,依据杯式测风仪测量方法与自动气象站风速风向传感器检定规程,并在实验中加入了主体由角度编码器构成的自动化转盘系统,设计了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场内测量性能水平实验。通过调整三杯风速传感器在风洞试验段内的倾斜角度,模拟其在自然界非水平风场中的测量状态,同步采集风洞的标准指示风速、三杯风速传感器的实测风速以及其相应的倾斜角度,计算示值误差,利用方差分析、趋势分析、相关性分析和线性回归分析等统计方法,对不同倾斜角度下三杯风速传感器示值误差进行研究,得出了三杯风速传感器在风洞试验段内的示值误差与实测风速和倾斜角度之间的相关关系,提出了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场下的测量性能指标。研究了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场中实测风速与标准风速和倾斜角度的回归关系,提出了三杯风速传感器在计量环境下非水平风场中数据的量值传递修正算法。     

近50年石家庄地-气温差变化特征

利用石家庄17个国家气象站1972—2021年逐日地面气温、0 cm地温资料,分析了石家庄地-气温差的变化特征,结果表明：(1)石家庄地-气温差从1月开始逐渐增加,5月达到最大值5.0℃,然后开始减小,12月达到最小值-0.8℃;地-气温差在11月到次年1月为负值;春、夏、秋季均为正值,夏季最大,春季大于秋季,冬季以负值为主;(2)石家庄多年平均地-气温差在1.6～2.6℃之间,平均为2.1℃;整体上东部大于西部。(3)近50年石家庄年平均地-气温差呈显著的减小趋势,变化速率为-0.14℃/10a;夏、秋、冬三季的减小趋势均非常显著,夏季的减小趋势最强;石家庄市区和近郊站点年和四季地-气温差的减少趋势更显著。本文结论对科学认识石家庄城市生态环境的变化具有参考意义。     

基于新型探测资料对西安一次弱降水预报失误的原因分析

利用微波辐射计、激光测风雷达、多普勒雷达、相控阵雷达等新型探测资料、地面加密观测资料、ERA5再分析及多模式数值预报结果对2022年4月24日西安城区一次弱降水预报出现明显失误的原因进行分析,结果表明：(1)全球数值预报模式和中尺度数值预报模式对本次过程西安城区均报有明显降水,主要原因为模式对低层相对湿度预报明显偏大;(2)多种新型探测数据分析认为近地层湿度条件较差及中层的绝对水汽含量低,中层的干暖空气不利于成云致雨,垂直上升运动不强,且由于低层非常干燥,使水滴在下沉过程中蒸发,从而无法形成雨滴下落,这些原因共同造成西安城区无降水,低层相对湿度预报偏大是造成这次西安城区降水预报失误的主要原因之一;(3)造成西安城区近地层湿度条件差的原因是城市干热岛效应和低层干暖平流输送,且降水云团翻越秦岭后其湿空气绝热下沉至城区后出现增温降湿,使得城区形成较为深厚的干层,即使有雨滴在下落过程中也会造成更强的蒸发,这也是城区没有降水的重要原因之一;(4)预报员主观预报订正出现空报主要是源于对边界层水汽、抬升条件等关键降水要素缺乏订正能力,且对大城市的干热岛效应和秦岭山区地形影响研究不足。     

上海青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达和南汇WSR-88D雷达数据对比分析

上海青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达和南汇WSR 88D雷达型号不同,并且采用不同的双偏振技术升级方案,实际业务运行中2部雷达存在一定的数据偏差。为了对雷达的探测性能进行定量评估,在共同探测区域遴选2022年7—9月及2023年6月共30个过程3933个时次数据,以稳定性降水与对流性降水分类并按强度分级进行对比,评估了反射率因子ZH,差分反射率ZDR,相关系数CC和差分传播相移ΦDP的水平分布特征及随方位变化趋势,雷达灵敏度随仰角变化趋势以及ZH和ZDR偏差的定量统计。结果表明：2部雷达ZH的观测结果接近,青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达的ZH,CC和ΦDP受地物及避雷针影响较大,随方位变化不稳定,青浦CINRAD/SAD雷达在低层的非气象回波滤除效果较南汇WSR 88D雷达差。2部雷达ZH和ZDR的偏差在ZH大于40 dBz的区域较大,ZH平均偏差为0.9 dB,ZDR为-0.14 dB。本文基于台风、冰雹、短时强降水和梅雨降水数据,定量化评估了上海2部S波段双偏振天气雷达数据之间的差异,为后续算法改进以及数据订正提供参考。     

基于数据传输特性的卫星广播通道参数优化方法与应用

中国气象局卫星广播系统（CMACast）是全球对地观测广播系统（GEONETCast）框架下三大对地广播系统之一,在世界气象组织信息系统（WIS）和综合卫星数据分发服务系统(IGDDS)框架下,承担亚太地区气象数据广播分发的职责。随着气象业务的发展,广播系统数据量由180 GB/天增长至460 GB/天,在广播带宽资源有限而广播数据种类和大小各异的情况下,系统管理员越来越难以通过经验对广播通道参数调整以保持广播系统播发效率,造成部分通道数据播发时效下降严重,不能满足业务时效要求。通过对不同气象数据传输特性的定量分析,获得各类数据的精细化数据传输样本,在此基础上对各类数据广播通道参数进行科学、定量的计算和优化,使数据播发时效明显提升,应用到实际广播业务中效果明显。     

The Effect of Temperature on Growth and Energy Budget of the Polychaete,Neanthes japonica Izuka

Growth and energy budget of the polychaete, Neanthesjaponica, at various temperatures (17, 20, 23, 26 and 29 ℃) were investigated in this study. The growth, as indicated by final dry weight and specific growth rate (SGR), increased with increasing temperature, with the maximum level at 26℃, and then decreased significantly at 29℃. A similar trend was observed in feeding rate, food conversion efficiency (FCE) and apparent digestive rate (ADR). However, no significant differences were detected in ADR among all the temperature treatments. In the pattern of energy allocation, faeces energy was only a small component of energy budget and had little influence on the proportion of food energy allocated to growth. The metabolic energy accounted for a large portion of energy intake for each temperature treatment. The nitrogen excretion was appreciable with changing temperature. The two expendi-ture terms (respiration energy and excretion energy) in energy budget were the major factors influencing the proportion of food en-ergy allocated to growth. These results revealed that temperature affected the growth of N. japonica mainly by influencing feeding rate and FCE. In addition, regression equations describing the relationship between feeding rate, faecal production, SGR, FCE and temperature were obtained. The optimum temperatures for feeding rate, FCE and SGR were estimated at 25.01 ℃, 24.24℃ and 24.73 ℃, respectively, from the regression equations.     

Effects of Salinity Fluctuation Frequency on the Growth, Molting Rate and Hemolymph 20-Hydroxyecdysone Concentration in Juvenile Chinese shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis

This experiment was conducted to examine the effects of salinity fluctuation frequency on the growth, molting rate and hemolymph 20-hydroxyecdysone (20-HE) concentration for juvenile Fenneropenaeus chinensis with an initial wet body weight of 1.115 g±0.012 g. The salinity of the control treatment (represented by D0) was 28 throughout the experiment, whereas treatments D2,D4, D6 and D8 were subjected to different salinity fluctuation frequencies of 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively. The range of salinity fluctuation was 4. The salinity in treatments D2, D4, D6 and D8 was kept at 28 for 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively; each original salinity was decreased abruptly to salinity 24, which first lasted for another 2d and was then raised to its initial value 28. This constituted a salinity fluctuation cycle and afterwards the cycle repeated. It was found that: 1) The weight gain of shrimp in treatment D4 was 202.9% and significantly higher than that in treatment D0 (P<0.05). The molting rate in treatment D2 was the lowest, while that in treatment D6 was the highest and significantly higher than those in treatments D0 and D2 (P<0.05). 2) The hemolymph 20-HE concentration of shrimps in all treatments was at low levels and increased first gradually during the inter-molt period and then increased sharply. It reached a peak value during the pre-molt stage, and then decreased abruptly during the post-molt stage when the lowest level occurred. 3) During the post-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was 7.47pgμL-1 and significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05). There were, however, no significant differences in hemolymph 20-HE concentration among all five treatments during the inter-molt stage (P>0.05). During the pre-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D6 was significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05), whereas the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was significantly lower than that in other treatments (P<0.05). Adequate salinity fluctuation promoted the molting rate through increasing hemolymph 20-HE concentration at the pre-molt stage.     

油气资源分类及评价方法

对我国油气资源评价工作中常用的基本概念与评价方法进行了详细阐述,其中包括美国石油工程师协会（SPE）、俄罗斯和我国新实行的油气资源分类标准和基本概念;将油气资源评价方法分为：成因法、类比法、统计法、德尔菲（Delphi）法4大类;较详细的介绍了盆地模拟法、氯仿沥青“A”法、有机碳法、面积丰度法、体积丰度法、统计趋势预测法、油气田（藏）规模概率分布法、地质因素分析法、圈闭法等具体评价方法,并简要分析了它们的适用范围和特征。