2023年全球重大天气气候事件

2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。     

基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

Early Cretaceous Metasomatized Lithospheric Mantle beneath the Central Jiangnan Orogen in South China: Geochemical and Sr-Nd Isotope Evidence from the Tuanshanbei Dolerite

It is well established that Cretaceous magmatism in the South China Block (SCB) is related to the Paleo-Pacific subduction. However, the starting time and the associated deep crust-mantle processes are still debatable. Mafic dike swarms carry important information on the deep earth (including mantle) geodynamics and geochemical evolution. In the Jiangnan Orogen (South China), there is no information on whether the Mesozoic magmatic activities in this region are also directly related to the Pacific subduction or not. In this study, we present detailed zircon U-Pb geochronological, whole-rock element and Sr-Nd isotope data for Early Cretaceous Tuanshanbei dolerite dikes, and provide new constraints on the condition of the lithospheric mantle and mantle dynamics of the SCB during that time. LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating suggests that this dolerite erupted in the Early Cretaceous (~145 Ma). All samples have alkaline geochemical affinities with K2O + Na2O = 3.11–4.04 wt%, K2O/Na2O = 0.50–0.72, and Mg# = 62.24–65.13. They are enriched in LILE but depleted in HFSE with higher initial 87Sr/86Sr ratio (0.706896–0.714743) and lower εNd(t) (?2.61 to ?1.67). They have high Nb/U, Nb/La, La/Sm and Rb/Sr, and low La/Nb, La/Ta, Ce/Pb, Ba/Rb, Tb/Yb and Gd/Yb ratios. Such geochemical signatures suggest that the fractional crystallization is obvious but crustal contamination play a negligible role during magmatic evolution. Tuanshanbei dolerite were most likely derived from low-degree (2%–5%) partial melting of a phlogopite-bearing mantle material consisted of ~85% spinel peridotite and ~15% garnet peridotite previously metasomatized by asthenosphere-derived fluids/melts with minor subduction-derived fluids/melts. Slab-rollback generally lead to the upwelling of the hot asthenosphere. The upwelling of asthenosphere consuming the lithospheric mantle by thermo-mechanical-chemical erosion. The lithospheric mantle may have partially melted due to the heating by the upwelling asthenosphere and lithospheric extension. It is inferred that the Tuanshanbei dolerite might be associated with the initial slab rollback and corresponding lithospheric extension occurred potentially at ca. 145 Ma.     

Geochemical and Isotopic Techniques Constraints on the Origin, Evolution, and Residence Time of Low-enthalpy Geothermal Water in Western Wugongshan, SE China

Geothermal resources are increasingly gaining attention as a competitive, clean energy source to address the energy crisis and mitigate climate change. The Wugongshan area, situated in the southeast coast geothermal belt of China, is a typical geothermal anomaly and contains abundant medium- and low-temperature geothermal resources. This study employed hydrogeochemical and isotopic techniques to explore the cyclic evolution of geothermal water in the western Wugongshan region, encompassing the recharge origin, water–rock interaction mechanisms, and residence time. The results show that the geothermal water in the western region of Wugongshan is weakly alkaline, with low enthalpy and mineralization levels. The hydrochemistry of geothermal waters is dominated by Na-HCO3 and Na-SO4, while the hydrochemistry types of cold springs are all Na-HCO3. The hydrochemistry types of surface waters and rain waters are Na-HCO3 or Ca-HCO3. The δD and δ18O values reveal that the geothermal waters are recharged by atmospheric precipitation at an altitude between 550.0 and 1218.6 m. Molar ratios of major solutes and isotopic compositions of 87Sr/86Sr underscore the significant role of silicate weathering, dissolution, and cation exchange in controlling geothermal water chemistry. Additionally, geothermal waters experienced varying degrees of mixing with cold water during their ascent. The δ13C values suggest that the primary sources of carbon in the geothermal waters were biogenic and organic. The δ34S value suggests that the sulfates in geothermal water originate from sulfide minerals in the surrounding rock. Age dating using 3H and 14C isotopes suggests that geothermal waters have a residence time exceeding 1 kaBP and undergo a long-distance cycling process.     

河南辐射产业发展对策研究

辐射技术已被广泛应用到社会经济发展的许多领域和部门,涉及到人类生活的衣、食、住、行、文化娱乐等各个方面.河南省辐射行业的研究力量和技术水平虽然居于全国前列,而且当前社会的发展对辐射技术又有较大的市场需求,但辐射产业规模和效益与全国发达省份相比还有较大的差距.因此,必须在技术装备、科研开发、人才培养、制度建设等方面加大投入力度,加快和促进河南省辐射技术和辐射产业的发展,充分发挥辐射技术在改善经济结构、增加国民收入中的作用.     

收缩城市建设用地利用效率时空分异及影响机制——以黑龙江省伊春市为例

建设用地是城镇经济社会活动的空间载体,其利用效率是调控建设用地扩张和配置的重要基础.论文以收缩型城市——黑龙江省伊春市为例,利用DEA模型测算了1995-2015年伊春市建设用地利用效率分析其时空演变规律,并运用地理探测器模型探究伊春市建设用地利用效率空间分异的影响机制,结论如下:①1995-2015年伊春市建设用地利...     

冷冻固定化优势菌群处理含甲醛苯酚废水

包气带土壤中氨氮污染迁移规律已成为近年来国内外学者研究的重点,目前在氨氮污染迁移规律研究中采用柱实验模拟以及软件模拟的方法较多,土壤生物技术则广泛应用于污染物降解领域,而在污染物迁移规律研究中应用较少。本文采用变性梯度凝胶电泳(DGGE)技术、16S rRNA序列分析技术以及典范对应分析相结合,对华北平原3个典型氨氮污染区土壤表层至包气带剖面微环境的细菌垂直分布特征及群落结构进行研究。结合污染区土壤理化性质分析,认为包气带土壤剖面的细菌群落中存在着与氮循环、硫酸盐代谢等过程偶联的优势细菌类群,说明土壤微环境中细菌群落分布明显受氨态氮、硝态氮、亚硝态氮和硫酸盐的分布影响,进一步表明污染土壤优势菌群的群落结构信息是描述包气带土壤环境氨氮污染物迁移规律的重要参数。     

新型抗滑结构围桩-土的耦合效应分析

在引入围桩-土耦合式抗滑结构的基础上建立数值分析模型;通过分析该抗滑结构中围桩-土的应力、应变分布规律,详细探讨围桩-土整个结构的耦合效应特征。进一步开展模型试验,测试并分析围桩前、后土压力和桩身弯矩分布特征,论证了围桩-土耦合式抗滑结构的作用机制。最后,分析了桩后距离、不同深度及不同土体强度参数对土拱效应的影响。得到：（1）围桩与桩内土体耦合呈现出4种应力拱形态：紧邻围桩后为扩肩型拱、围桩间双曲线型拱、围桩间凸向桩外的抛物线型拱、围桩间凸向桩内的抛物线型拱;（2）相邻围桩采用约4倍桩径间距、正六边形布置并顶部用圈梁固结、锚固一定深度可形成一种耦合式抗滑结构。该结论对于该新型抗滑结构的推广应用具有一定的指导意义。     

油气运聚影响下三维地震精细解译的砂岩型铀矿控矿因素分析——以松辽盆地大庆长垣南端铀矿为例

松辽盆地大庆长垣隆起区砂岩型铀矿资源丰富,但成矿条件复杂。以大庆长垣南端四方台组砂岩型铀矿为研究对象,基于三维地震精细解译成果,对长垣隆起区铀矿的分布特征、富集主控因素及成矿模式开展研究。结果表明：①三维地震资料是刻画断层与砂体分布的有效手段;②砂岩型铀矿主要富集在四方台组一段的河道砂体中,与沟通深部油气储层的输导断层邻近;③河道砂体、油气输导断层及油气圈闭是控制砂岩型铀矿富集的3个主要因素;④长垣隆起区的砂岩型铀矿是含铀地下水与油气运聚协调配合局部富集的结果,建立了输导断层与油气圈闭联合控矿模式。研究成果为含油气盆地砂岩型铀矿勘探提供了新的思路。     

基于地震反演方法的奥陶系顶部含隔水层探测

在山西阳泉泊里矿区,太原组K₂灰岩是15号煤层上部主要的含水层,查明其富水分布特征对上下组煤层安全开采至关重要。为了准确得到K₂灰岩的富水分布区域,首先,利用常规的波阻抗反演获取精确的K₂灰岩空间展布特征。然后,结合皮尔逊相关系数法与交叉验证−逐步回归法优选出9种地震属性,构成网络的训练数据。此外,引入适合于时序数据处理且能够捕捉测井曲线前后相关性的长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM),构建智能化、多变量LSTM视电阻率预测模型,以精确地预测研究区视电阻率进而得到地层富水性分布特征。同时,分别利用常规多属性回归算法与多变量LSTM模型在井点位置建立电阻率测井曲线与地震属性井旁道之间的映射关系。最后,将井点处训练好的网络模型推广至无井区得到全区视电阻率体,根据视电阻率值的高低、矿区地质构造与陷落柱发育情况圈定灰岩富水区。实际数据的测试结果表明：与常规多属性回归算法相比,多变量LSTM模型预测误差小,与测井相关系数高,说明多变量LSTM模型可以更加精确地预测出工区视电阻率,在含煤地层的富水性预测中有较好的应用价值。\t\t\t\t