Changing patterns of population distribution in Zimbabwe

This paper critically evaluates the causes and consequences of changes in population distribution in Zimbabwe during the colonial period and since independence in 1980. Five main aspects of population geography are examined. Firstly, by way on background on contemporary patterns of settlement and land use, the history of tenure policies is outlined. Secondly, the distribution of the African population as revealed in the 1982 census is described and major changes between the census years of 1962, 1969 and 1982 are discussed. Thirdly, changing patterns of settlement and land use within the peasant farming areas (Communal Lands) are examined in the context of increasing population pressures. Fourthly, trends in the growth of the main urban centres and the process of urbanisation of the African population are described. Fifthly, post-independence development policies directed at effecting changes in the distribution of population are discussed with particular reference to the land resettlement programme. The present distribution of population is seen as the product of interacting political, economic and environmental factors, knowledge of which is essential in devising appropriate development strategies to achieve a more equable balance of population and resources.     

扬子板块西北缘碧口地块中——新生代变质、变形与年代限定

碧口地块位于扬子板块西北缘,由北部变质沉积岩系及南部变质中基性火山岩组成。碧口地块北部岩石变质为千枚岩、云母石英片岩,南部岩石经历绿片岩-蓝片岩相变质。由于对碧口地块变形特征及区域变质作用分析深度不够,缺少精确的变质时间限定,碧口地块变质杂岩系性质、区域变质年代及其大地构造属性始终处于争议之中,导致对西秦岭和龙门山造山过程的认识产生分歧。通过详细区域构造解析,将碧口地块划分为3期变形:D1期以紧闭褶皱、面理S1及矿物线理L1为特征;D2期形成于由北向南的正断拆离作用,显示韧性变形特征,D2期变形改造先期逆断层并形成半地堑盆地;D3期形成于喜山期逆冲走滑运动,以脆性变形为主要特征。本研究获得碧口变质岩中变形脉锆石U-Pb年龄(227.2±6.2)Ma,碧口地块已报道的D1期变形后期侵入体年龄为226~215 Ma,从而限定D1期碧口区域变质变形年龄为约220 Ma。因此推测D1期形成于三叠纪末华南、华北板块碰撞,碧口地块区域变质主要形成于这一时期的俯冲碰撞作用;D2与D3期则与青藏高原的东向扩张有关。     

大功率低频可控震源在主动源地震学中的应用

过去的20年里,俄罗斯在主动源地震学中一直使用大功率(40吨和10吨)低频可控震源。这种震源可产生频带为1.5～3Hz,3～6Hz,5～10Hz,出力高达100吨的可控震源。该震源的可移动类型出力为40吨,频带宽度为6～12Hz。100吨级可控震源激发地震波的传播距离可达到350km,折射波向下可穿透达50km深度。震源运行过程具有高度可重复性,其产生的信号频谱有"夏季"与"冬季"两种不同模式。在长地震剖面上可以通过地震频谱的变化来估计断层带的埋深,其他的应用主要有深地震剖面、地震危险性区划、结构检测、各向异性导致的应力变化研究、地震事件定位、大型建筑的完整性检测。附录中给出了大功率低频可控震源的理论描述和数值实例。     

由触发地震活动性的级联解释前震

大地震前观测到前震，以及认为前震具有特殊的性质使得它们能够同其他地震区别开来，所有这些增加了地震是可以预报的希望。所提出的异常属性包括：震级较大的前震相对于震级较小的前震占有比正常值更高的比例；以到主震的时间为参数，地震活动速率以幂律加速；将许多地震序列进行平均时，前震在空间上向主震迁移。使用南加利福尼亚的地震活动性数据，我们证明了这些性质以及其他性质都可由一简单模型得到，这一模型认为，不管前震、余震和主震，任何一个地震都能触发其他地震。我们发现前震的前兆性质同主震的大小无关。这意味着：由于根据过去的地震活动性并考虑触发的级联作用，地震活动速率是可以预报的，因此地震(无论大震还是小震)也是可以预报的。触发的级联作用很自然地产生了大范围、长时间的交互作用，这可以用来解释在非常大尺度范围内观测到的地震活动性相关现象。     

The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.     

混沌、奇异吸引子和天气(二)

四、在天气和气候中吸引子的研究确定吸引子的Hausdorff-Besicovit-ch维数具有极其重要的意义。因为一个吸引子无论是否为分形,其维数表示在相应的动力学系统演变过程中出现的最少变量个数(亦即吸引子必须嵌入一个至少等于其自身维数的状态空间)。所以,吸引子的Haus-dotff-Besicovitch维数(亦或任何其它广义维数的问题)的测定,也就给出了预测系统演变的模式所必须满足的一些约束条件。如果给出动力学系统的数学表达式,那     

Coral recruitment to the reefs of Eilat, Red Sea: temporal and spatial variation, and possible effects of anthropogenic disturbances

The accelerating deterioration of the coral reefs of Eilat has raised debate over the exact causes and how they affect the reefs. The hypothesis of the present study was that a low recruitment rate of reef-building coral species may play an important role in the decline of the Eilat reefs. Our goal was to assess spatial and temporal recruitment patterns in Eilat, focusing on examining the possible impact of human activities. The results of coral recruitment to 10 series of ceramic tiles on metal racks, revealed very low overall recruitment relative to other geographical regions. In addition, we found that recruitment rates and recruit survival were lowest at sites closest to the major eutrophication sources in Eilat. The low recruitment rates may be chronically too low to compensate for the elevated coral mortality rates of recent years. The significant differences between the present study and a similar study carried out during the same period using a different method, emphasize the crucial need for a standardized method for recruitment assessment in coral reefs worldwide.     

Using analytic element models to delineate drinking water source protection areas

Since 1999, Ohio EPA hydrogeologists have used two analytic element models (AEMs), the proprietary software GFLOW and U.S. EPA's WhAEM, to delineate protection areas for 535 public water systems. Both models now use the GFLOW2001 solution engine, integrate well with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, have a user-friendly graphical interface, are capable of simulating a variety of complex hydrogeologic settings, and do not rely upon a model grid. These features simplify the modeling process and enable AEMs to bridge the gap between existing simplistic delineation methods and more complex numerical models. Ohio EPA hydrogeologists demonstrated that WhAEM2000 and GFLOW2000 were capable of producing capture zones similar to more widely accepted models by applying the AEMs to eight sites that had been previously delineated using other methods. After the Ohio EPA delineated protection areas using AEMs, more simplistic delineation methods used by other states (volumetric equation and arbitrary fixed radii) were applied to the same water systems to compare the differences between various methods. GIS software and two-tailed paired t-tests were used to quantify the differences in protection areas and analyze the data. The results of this analysis demonstrate that AEMs typically produce significantly different protection areas than the most simplistic delineation methods, in terms of total area and shape. If the volumetric equation had been used instead of AEMs, Ohio would not have protected 265 km2 of critical upgradient area and would have overprotected 269 km2 of primarily downgradient land. Since an increasing number of land-use restrictions are being tied to drinking water protection areas, this analysis has broad policy implications.